[jjgold]

Has to be up to -180

God I’m still trying to teach you guys

[KVB]

As long as you get the price you want, bet it.

Nothing more to it, Gold.

[jjgold]

90% bet any line

[KVB]

90% bet any line

This is why we can still win, Gold.

This is why markets can become "inefficient"

At least part of the reason.

[OldBill]

you do not get dime lines on bigger favs they use up to ,40 cent lines like - 280 fav your dog ainy gonna be +270 it will be like +240

and your not suppsed to bet on any chalks in bases higher than - 160

[jjgold]

A true dime line is usually up to -190

[KVB]

Gold BOL was dealing a Doyers line of -221/+201

Is that a dime line?

Sugarhouse in NJ and Parx in PA were dealing -245/+200, NJ Fan Dual had -245/+198

lol

[KVB]

Look at those guys more than doubling the hold, on what kind of action?

BOL with 2% hold and those guys at 4.2%.

I talk about this in that last video about "Knowing Your Markets"

We'll take Zona at close to 2-1. Who's leading and who's lagging there?

[KVB]

90% bet any line

... ...

[d2bets]

You're only betting one side, so why does it really matter what the other side is?

Book A:
Toronto -150
Seattle +130

Book B:
Toronto -155
Seattle +145

Does it matter that Book A isn't dealing a dimeline? If you want to bet on Toronto, you're better off betting into that 20 cent line than the dimeline.

[KVB]

How about Bet MGM?

-250/+195

5% hold.

[KVB]

You're only betting one side, so why does it really matter what the other side is?

Book A:
Toronto -150
Seattle +130

Book B:
Toronto -155
Seattle +145

Does it matter that Book A isn't dealing a dimeline? If you want to bet on Toronto, you're better off betting into that 20 cent line than the dimeline.

As long as you get the price you want, bet it.

Nothing more to it, Gold.

[clockwise1965]

You're only betting one side, so why does it really matter what the other side is?

Book A:
Toronto -150
Seattle +130

Book B:
Toronto -155
Seattle +145

Does it matter that Book A isn't dealing a dimeline? If you want to bet on Toronto, you're better off betting into that 20 cent line than the dimeline.

[jjgold]

The USA books really price gauge
It’s a disgrace

Then they wonder why offshore flourishes

[texhooper]

You're only betting one side, so why does it really matter what the other side is?

Book A:
Toronto -150
Seattle +130

Book B:
Toronto -155
Seattle +145

Does it matter that Book A isn't dealing a dimeline? If you want to bet on Toronto, you're better off betting into that 20 cent line than the dimeline.

This is of course true but you’re much more often gonna see book b at say -145/+135. IE both sides with a better price on the dime line than the 20 cent line. But of course all games are like snowflakes

[KVB]

Back to that Dodgers/Zona game.

I work with several forecasts, as many know, and the non predictive public gauge, which I usually give as a score because I hold tight my conversions to percentages, does tell us something.

Instead of a score, I'm going to give a percentage.

Even though the public isn't thinking of break even percentages, etc, and will pay any price, I do estimate the price at which the public will question the larger number.

The puplic gauge gives us a 72% probability of winning, even though the public doesn't know it. This tells us the public might be turned off at the -257/+257 or say -255 or -260 price. It also suggest that to get the public to start thinking about a number, +250 or so just might do it.

I know we say the public doesn't care about the number, and this is pretty much true. But what I'm doing is taking this to a deeper level of public sentiment, one they bettor's themselves may not realize exists.

It's the number that would cause the bettor who doesn't care about the number, to start thinking twice when he sees the number. They often act like brackets outside the sharper predictions.

Remember, that is a non-predictive public gauge, designed to estimate publice sentiment and this is one way I use it as a gauge.

Even though the public doesn't care about numbers, they can still be affected by them, especially their pocketbooks.

[jjgold]

Let me sum this up really easy

Player A plays at a 20 cent line shop


Player B plays at a dime line shop

Player B long term has a massive edge

[KVB]

...The puplic gauge gives us a 72% probability of winning, even though the public doesn't know it. This tells us the public might be turned off at the -257/+257 or say -255 or -260 price. It also suggest that to get the public to start thinking about a number, +250 or so just might do it...

Again, I usually give scores and not percentages, but a much sharper forecast shows a different percentage.

My stacking percentages forecast gives Doyers a 64.89% advantage converting to roughly a -185/+185 price.

So let's see how that LAD/Zona line develops today.

[jjgold]

On a sidenote does anybody have a fat stack?

[KVB]

Vegas toys around with a +190, +193, +195 line on Zona.

With my -185/+185 prediction, just how much overlay does the better need to trigger a bet?

Do I need 5 cents, 7 cents, 9 cents?

How about the 15 cents with all those +200 lines?

I'm not saying I have the ultimate stacking percentages prediction, but within the realms of reasonable and bettable overlay, and seeing the lines in the market, I have to feel pretty good about that prediction, or probability.

As if it's record compared to the market isn't enough, the line moves towards mine, usually.

I will say this, though, over the last 100 or so plays, my stacking percentages forecast has done better against the closing line than the opening, which means the line has been moving away from me.

It happens.

[KVB]

On a sidenote does anybody have a fat stack?

Just how fat we talkin', Gold?

[jjgold]

KVB your broke man

[KVB]

[KVB]

...My stacking percentages forecast gives Doyers a 64.89% advantage converting to roughly a -185/+185 price.

So let's see how that LAD/Zona line develops today...

Bookmaker trading at +187 and much of the market in the +190's.

Refer to the video above to see how the market gets led.

See why I still feel pretty good about that stacking forecast prediction?

Just how much overlay does a sharp forecast need?

[KVB]

...Sugarhouse in NJ and Parx in PA were dealing -245/+200, NJ Fan Dual had -245/+198...

Sugarhouse and Parx have the dog at +185.

[ThaTopMoron]

Has to be up to -180

God I’m still trying to teach you guys

i don't bet MLB

you're team could be up 9-5 3 outs left and some idiot closer has his worst outing of the season and boom you lose in extras... mlb is dumb until later in the playoffs