If you're new to FanDuel's "Dinger Tuesday" promotion, the FD link below will provide you with all the details.
As a seam head and an analytical geek, I consider this my favorite among all the promotions.
Welcome to Dinger Tuesdays! YOU CAN CHOOSE between a 50% PBT and TWO 25% PBTs to use on a “To Hit a Home Run” wager(s) on any MLB Games taking place on July 28th, 2026!
FD does a good job with this prop promotion.
If you don't mind doing the number crunching, there's always going to be a soft line or two you can spot.
HR Projections for Tues. 7/28
Source:
The fine folks over at RotoWire
All 30 teams are scheduled to play tonight.
There are a half dozen starting pitchers tonight that have a penchant for giving up home runs.
When I caught back in the day, we called those pitchers "Hamburgers"
These starters give up a startling number of homers.
Source:
b-r.com (Baseball Reference)
I'm targeting the SD hitters at home vs. Colorado and Lorenson.
Lorenzo should be good for coughing up a couple of gopher balls.
Thinking outside the box, because that's where the value is,
I'm avoiding the short money sluggers (Tatis, Merrill, and Machado)
I'm looking at either Croenworth, Ty France, Gavin Sheets, and Luis Rengifo, the dark horse.
Two fun facts stand out about Luis Rengifo
a) He's currently on an eight-game hit streak (13 hits in those eight games) and making solid contact.
b) Rengifo has 11 career at-bats vs Lorenzo; he's 4 for 11, and two of those four hits were homers.
I don't consider B vs. P a primary metric, though. But I'll use it as an ancillary statistic to support my case,
And eleven career at-bats is a very small sample size, but two homers in 11 at-bats against a pitcher suggests Renigfo is seeing what he's throwing, and he's really comfortable in the batter's box.
Luis Renigfo.
1 + HR
+800 (2 pm FD)
As a seam head and an analytical geek, I consider this my favorite among all the promotions.
Welcome to Dinger Tuesdays! YOU CAN CHOOSE between a 50% PBT and TWO 25% PBTs to use on a “To Hit a Home Run” wager(s) on any MLB Games taking place on July 28th, 2026!
FD does a good job with this prop promotion.
If you don't mind doing the number crunching, there's always going to be a soft line or two you can spot.
HR Projections for Tues. 7/28
Source:
The fine folks over at RotoWire
| Player Name | Team | Opp | HR pct |
| Esmerlyn Valdez | PIT | vs ARI | 0.32785 |
| Manny Machado | SD | vs COL | 0.32771 |
| Shohei Ohtani | LAD | vs SEA | 0.32723 |
| Byron Buxton | MIN | vs KC | 0.32439 |
| Jackson Merrill | SD | vs COL | 0.32324 |
| Fernando Tatis | SD | vs COL | 0.30856 |
| Brandon Lowe | PIT | vs ARI | 0.2973 |
| Junior Caminero | TB | vs TEX | 0.29517 |
| Max Muncy | LAD | vs SEA | 0.2902 |
| Petey Halpin | CLE | @CIN | 0.28397 |
| Kyle Schwarber | PHI | @MIA | 0.28341 |
| Yordan Alvarez | HOU | @LAA | 0.27415 |
| Kyle Stowers | MIA | vs PHI | 0.26566 |
| Drake Baldwin | ATL | @NYM | 0.2623 |
| Jose Ramirez | CLE | @CIN | 0.25678 |
| Pete Alonso | BAL | @DET | 0.25058 |
| Mike Trout | LAA | vs HOU | 0.24819 |
| Ben Rice | NYY | @CWS | 0.24739 |
| Munetaka Murakami | CWS | vs NYY | 0.24549 |
| Willson Contreras | BOS | @ATH | 0.24175 |
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand | BAL | @DET | 0.24114 |
| James Wood | WSH | vs TOR | 0.24095 |
| Salvador Perez | KC | @MIN | 0.23975 |
| Ketel Marte | ARI | @PIT | 0.23908 |
All 30 teams are scheduled to play tonight.
There are a half dozen starting pitchers tonight that have a penchant for giving up home runs.
When I caught back in the day, we called those pitchers "Hamburgers"
These starters give up a startling number of homers.
Source:
b-r.com (Baseball Reference)
I'm targeting the SD hitters at home vs. Colorado and Lorenson.
Lorenzo should be good for coughing up a couple of gopher balls.
Thinking outside the box, because that's where the value is,
I'm avoiding the short money sluggers (Tatis, Merrill, and Machado)
I'm looking at either Croenworth, Ty France, Gavin Sheets, and Luis Rengifo, the dark horse.
Two fun facts stand out about Luis Rengifo
a) He's currently on an eight-game hit streak (13 hits in those eight games) and making solid contact.
b) Rengifo has 11 career at-bats vs Lorenzo; he's 4 for 11, and two of those four hits were homers.
I don't consider B vs. P a primary metric, though. But I'll use it as an ancillary statistic to support my case,
And eleven career at-bats is a very small sample size, but two homers in 11 at-bats against a pitcher suggests Renigfo is seeing what he's throwing, and he's really comfortable in the batter's box.
Luis Renigfo.
1 + HR
+800 (2 pm FD)
Attached Files