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Stanford Steve & The Bear: Week 6 College Football Picks
Stanford Steve and The Bear: Week 6 college football picks, bets, nuggets
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"Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris "The Bear" Fallica cover the college football season as only they can, offering their top picks, betting nuggets and totals worth wagering on.
Records:
The Bear (Last week: 2-5. Season: 11-15)
Stanford Steve (Last week: 0-5. Season: 14-13)
Note: All lines are from Caesars Sportsbook.
The Plays
No. 9 Michigan Wolverines (-3.5, 50.5 O/U) at Nebraska Cornhuskers
Stanford Steve: I know Michigan fans think I hate them because I picked against them last week, but I don't. It was about the situation and this week is about the situation. Nebraska comes off playing their best game in a blowout win over Northwestern, where they scored 50+ points in a Big Ten game for the fourth time in Scott Frost's tenure in Lincoln. Michigan comes in off an impressive win at Madison and looks to be playing their best ball of the year. But is this the scenario where we see "Good Michigan" in September and October and then ... you know. I just think Nebraska rises to the occasion here and covers the number.
The pick: Nebraska +3.5 (Michigan 20, Nebraska 19)
Fallica: Michigan is good, but the spot is tough. Second straight conference road game against a team whose defense has played very well this year. Nebraska is going to win one of the close games at some point, so why not this week? Remember, too, Scott Frost's first Big Ten game was a 56-10 loss in Ann Arbor, there was the split title in 1997 and the UCF game at the Big House as well. So hold your nose a little bit and hope the Huskers don't have another special teams meltdown.
The pick: Nebraska +3.5
No. 6 Oklahoma Sooners (-3.5, 63.5) at No. 21 Texas Longhorns
Stanford Steve: Well, well, well ... what do we have here? Both teams ranked for this rivalry. Gotta love it. The Longhorns come in covering seven of the last nine in this matchup and some say they are currently the best team in the Big 12. I'm sure the Sooners don't need any extra motivation but there is plenty of talk about how they have only won four games by one score, including last week in which they played their first true road game. I think the Sooners learned a lot about themselves in that game, and more importantly, I think they will be focused on slowing down Texas' Heisman candidate, running back Bijon Robinson, as he comes in red-hot (216 rushing yards last week vs. TCU). The feeling here is that Oklahoma plays their best game of the year and the offense looks more like a Lincoln Riley Oklahoma offense. I'll lay the points.
The pick: Oklahoma -3.5 (Oklahoma 34, Texas 27)
No. 4 Penn State Nittany Lions at No. 3 Iowa Hawkeyes (-1.5, 41)
Stanford Steve: How good have the games been when these two teams have played?! Before last year, Penn State had won six in a row in this series with the last three wins being by one score. Now we get both of them ranked in the top four of the AP poll. Penn State's offense has looked a lot "cleaner" under new offensive coordinator Pete Yercich, committing only three turnovers this year and the defense (third in nation in scoring defense and second in red zone defense) has been tremendous, thus giving Penn State a +6 in the turnovers this year. Then on the other side, you have the Hawkeyes, who are the epitome of "what you see is what you get." Their defense continues to shine, forcing seven turnovers last week in a game I was on the sidelines for. Probably have a little recency bias, but I'll take the home team and give the points.
The pick: Iowa -1.5 (Iowa 24, Penn State 18)
Michigan State Spartans (-5.5, 50) at Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Stanford Steve: This will not be pretty. but the thought here is that Rutgers has enough to hang around and frustrate the Spartans at home in Piscataway. Before last week, Rutgers had one turnover on the season and then last week they gave it away three times. They need to play better than they did last week in getting blown out vs. Ohio State. Michigan State has been great to start the season, the defense has accumulated 18 sacks, including two or more in every game, so there is that. To be honest the line smells pretty bad, too. We'll take the home team and the points.
The pick: Rutgers +5.5 (Michigan State 23, Rutgers 20)
No. 19 Wake Forest Demon Deacons (-6, 57) at Syracuse Orange
Fallica: Syracuse's defense has played very well at home this year, getting after the QB and not allowing big plays through the air. After a close call in Tallahassee last week, seems like a good spot to back the Orange, just as we did two weeks ago when they upset Liberty.
The pick: Syracuse +6.5
Florida State Seminoles at North Carolina Tar Heels (-17.5, 64.5)
Fallica: After being upset by FSU last year, I expect the UNC offense to put up a big number on the Noles. The fact that UNC took care of an overmatched Duke team with ease bodes well for the remainder of the season.
The pick: North Carolina -17.5
The Bear's money-line parlay
Last Week: -100
Season: -309
$100 returns $124
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers -1400
North Carolina Tar Heels -925
Ohio State Buckeyes -1400
Liberty Flames -1300
Marshall Thundering Herd -1400
Georgia Bulldogs -800
Missouri Tigers-1100
Alabama Crimson Tide -1000
UCLA Bruins -750
The Bear's underdogs to play on the money line
Last Week: 4-4, +3.1 units
Season: 16-14, +18.5 units
Tulane Green Wave +195
Syracuse Orange +200
Wyoming Cowboys +190
San Jose State Spartans +115
Washington State Cougars +155
West Virginia Mountaineers +130
Nebraska Cornhuskers +145
Arkansas Razorbacks +190
Bear bytes
No. 6 Oklahoma Sooner vs. No. 21 Texas Longhorns
This is the 13th straight year Texas is an underdog vs. Oklahoma. The Longhorns are 7-2 ATS with three outright wins in the last nine meetings. Oklahoma was 1-2 and unranked in last year's meeting. Spencer Rattler was also benched for Tanner Mordecai during the game.
Wisconsin Badgers at Illinois Fighting Illini
Wisconsin was favored by 2 vs. Michigan and 6.5 vs. Notre Dame. The Badgers lost those games by 21 and 28 points. Beginning with the 2019 Big Ten championship game, Wisconsin is 5-8 in its past 13 games (4-8 in last 12 vs. Power 5 opponents).
Boise State Broncos at No. 10 BYU Cougars
BYU was a five-point favorite over the Broncos last year. They won that game 51-17 in Boise.
No. 4 Penn State Nittany Lions at No. 3 Iowa Hawkeyes
Iowa is 14-1 in its past 15 games as a favorite of four points or fewer. The lone loss came last year at Purdue as a 3.5-point favorite. Two of Iowa's five wins this year have come in this role. James Franklin's teams are 0-9 (0-7 during his time at Penn State) in true road games vs. Top 10 teams, with just one game decided by fewer than 11 points.
No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide at Texas A&M Aggies
Alabama has won 100 straight vs. unranked teams, and 57 straight vs. unranked SEC teams (last loss was 2007 vs. Mississippi State). Each of Alabama's past 19 games vs. unranked SEC teams has been decided by at least 15 points. The last to play the Tide to 14 points or fewer? Texas A&M in 2017.
No. 9 Michigan Wolverines at Nebraska Cornhuskers
Since Scott Frost took over in 2018, Nebraska has lost an FBS-high 15 one-score games. The Huskers are 5-15 in games decided by eight points or fewer under Frost, including all three losses this year.
Akron Zips at Bowling Green Falcons
This is just the third time in the last 43 games vs. FBS opponents that Bowling Green is favored. BG is the only 5-0 ATS team on the country this year. This is the first time since 2015, when Dino Babers was the head coach, that the Falcons are a 14-point favorite over an FBS team.
UConn Huskies at UMass Minutemen
UMass has been involved in each of the past four games between teams 0-5 or worse. In fact, the Minutemen have won three of the four, including the last one, a 55-20 win over Georgia Southern in 2017.
Maryland Terrapins at No. 7 Ohio State Buckeyes
Maryland has failed to cover each of its past six games vs. ranked opponents. The Terps were an underdog in all six and lost by an average of 40.7 PPG.
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