Anyone else tired of hearing the word "public" mentioned in threads?

[BuddyBear]

The case of the superiority complex aside, imgv posted an opinion. He didn't post his results, but most people don't on forums. Now you're saying that there are arguments against betting on the public and arguments for betting on the public. So (assuming these effects negate each other which you have not statistically proven) you are in agreement with him.

I am saying betting against the public is a contingent effect, not a universal one. You can't just bet agaisnt the public and win all the time. There are certain situations where it is stronger than others and those situations are well-identified. In addition, I never said that public percentages cause you to win. They simply moderate the relationship between value and winning.

[vanzack]

IMGV...don't take this the wrong way or personally but you don't have the capacity or ability to understand what I am saying at any level. You believe Dr. Bob is giving the opposite side to his clients....

I laid it all out in plain English for you and anyone else to see. Vanzack made a smart alack, yet legitimate question. I respect him and responded accordingly. I responded politely and as best I could noting deficienies in his claims. He responded back in a smart alack tone. He knows what I am saying is true but is loathe to admit it. Instead he just responds with some dumb comment conceding the veracity of my argument without actually saying so. Betting against the public functions simply as a moderator variable. Its success is contingent on other factors.

To put in the simplest terms, a high winning percentage would be dependent on finding point spreads with the most value. Thus we have a simple bivariate relationship between value (IV) and high winning percentage (DV). Heavy public action tends to move spreads and as a result it creates more value. Therefore, heavy public action on one side moderates the relationship between value and winning.

And no shit, you think the betting percentages at Sportsinsights will tell you who wins? You think i was born yesterday? Unfortunately, most guys have no idea how to use that site. If it is simply pick against whatever side the public is on and sit back, drink a beer, and watch the cash roll in then no, that's not what happens and if anything you might go broke that way. SI is very specific under what conditions betting against the public is most profitable and when it is not. I suggest you look further into that before making sweeping generilizations and at the very least provide some sort of rationale as to how you arrived at such a conclusion considering your outlook is a complete 180 from last season.

Good luck this weekend

Do you use a thesaurus?

Your words are hypnotic....