I am being offered a free play that can only be used on one 2 or 3 team parlay. Obviously I can bet it on a couple or three longshots for a free chance at a big payoff. What if I only wanted to convert it into the maximum sure amount of cash? Any ideas/suggestions?
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can you split it up or just 1 bet?
if its just 1 bet i would suggest a 3 team parlay with all 1/2 points in the parlay so no push can happen that way you get best odds
if you bet a 2 team parlay and win 260
then bet 260-236.36 on a -110 game you only have 496.36
if you use the 3 team option and hit you have $600
104.64 more money on same thingComment -
My suggestion would be to earn freeplays somewhere else which you can hedge against this one.Comment -
What BigDaddy said. I'll hunt down the reason in a few minutes.Comment -
I'll put the following caveat in here for idiots like Ricky Steve.
the quote below doesn't answer exactly what is asked but does show the expected profit from using three team parlays for a free play.
Ganch- Don't jump on me. It's in layman's terms.
Raiders72001Depends on how you can use the matchplay. I posted this in another thread. If you can use your matchplay other than straight the expected value of the matchplay is approx. 85% of the matchplay.
If you deposited $1000 and took 10% cash it's worth $1100. If you take 20% match play it's worth $1170. Comparing cash to match play. 100/85 = 1.176. This means if you get a 10% cash bonus it equals 10 * 1.176 = 11.76 % match play.
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Most times it is better to take a 3 team parlay but you can make a case for the scalp/dog method becasue you win more often but less money each time. You have to play with the numbers and determine if you want to put some of your own money to dog scalp or just use the houses money to parlay.
Here's some math using true odds for parlays and ML scalp. Because you are not going to get 7-1 on 3 team parlays or a ML where you can find a +600/-600 you have to play with the numbers. Most likely you will get 6-1 and +350/-400.
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3 team parlay with a $100 free play. A 3 teamer will hit 1 out of 8 times. Using true odds
1 win = +$700
7 losses = $0
Win $700 in 8 tries or $87.50/free play
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-600/+600 dog scalp
In 7 tries you will win 6 times
Free play you put up $100 to win $600
Now you have to put up $600 of your own money to win $100.
Win 6 times $600 out of 7 plays or $85.71/free play.Comment -
you can always bet the big dog ML and play the Fav ML at another place if you have the cash available and if you feel comfortable if the big dog would somehow win having a big balance at the book that gave you the FPComment -
I'll put the following caveat in here for idiots like Raiders:
You must be able to read and comprehend the English language.
a) HE CAN ONLY BET A SINGLE 2 OR 3 TEAM PARLAY
b) HE IS NOT ATTEMPTING TO MAXIMIZE EXPECTED VALUEComment -
Dumbass- It doesn't hurt to throw out other ideas. At least you learned how to answer with more than one word.
Now how can he maximize profits as you stated by using another free play? He can now lose two freeplays.
So how is your post better than the other ones?
To maximize expected profits you use a 3 team parlay. If he also has the chance to play a ML dog he can scalp.Comment -
For slow ones like RickySteve. You would need 8 free plays to guarantee a profit using a 3 team parlay.Comment -
The way I read the question, the OP is looking to maximize his expected outcome subject to locking in a sure payout. The freeplay may not be split up, and he has access to no additional freeplays.
Using a 2-team parlay. assume two games, each with decimal odds of o<sub>1</sub> on one team and o<sub>2</sub> on the other.
Bet the freeplay on the parlay with payout odds of o<sub>1</sub><sup>2</sup>.
Bet A on one parlay with payout odds of o<sub>1</sub> * o<sub>2</sub>.
Bet B on the other parlay with payout odds of o<sub>1</sub> * o<sub>2</sub>.
Bet C on the parlay with payout odds of o<sub>2</sub><sup>2</sup>.
To equate payouts under all 4 outcomes, solve the following system of equations for A, B, & C:
o<sub>1</sub><sup>2</sup> - 1 - (A+B+C)
= o<sub>1</sub> × o<sub>2</sub> × A - (A+B+C)
= o<sub>1</sub> × o<sub>2</sub> × B - (A+B+C)
= o<sub>2</sub><sup>2</sup> × C - (A+B+C)
This gives us:
A = (o<sub>1</sub><sup>2</sup> - 1) / (o<sub>1</sub> × o<sub>2</sub>)
B = (o<sub>1</sub><sup>2</sup> - 1) / (o<sub>1</sub> × o<sub>2</sub>)
C = (o<sub>1</sub><sup>2</sup> - 1) / o<sub>2</sub><sup>2</sup>
So now, that we have the payouts equalized, we finally can select the odds at which to bet so as to maximize returns. If we assume 4.545% (= 1/22) vig, then we have:
1 / o<sub>1</sub> + 1 / o<sub>2</sub> = 1 / (1-1/22)
o<sub>2</sub> = 21 × o<sub>1</sub>/(22 × o<sub>1</sub> - 21)
As returns under all scenarios are equivalent, maximizing any scenario payout will be sufficient.
Payout = o<sub>1</sub><sup>2</sup> - 1 - (A+B+C) (where A, B, & C are defined as above)
Payout = p=1/441×(-43×o<sub>1</sub><sup>2</sup>+484-441/o<sub>1</sub><sup>2</sup>)
taking the derivative wrt o<sub>1</sub> and setting to zero gives us:
o<sub>1</sub> = ( 882/86 )<sup>ΒΌ</sup>
o<sub>1</sub> ≈ 1.7895
o<sub>2</sub> ≈ 2.0458
So, gven a $100 freeplay and single-bet vig of 4.545%, using a 2-team parlay, you'd parlay 2 teams at decimal odds of 1.7895 each (US ~ -127), bet $52.63 on the opposing parlay of 2 teams at 2.0458 (US ~ +105) each, and bet $60.16 on each of the two remaining parlays (each of 1.7895 & 2.0458).
This would yield a risk-free return of $47.30 under all 4 possible outcomes.Comment -
Actually, because as the line magnitude increases, vig decreases, one can of course do a bit better than 4.545% vig.
So, expressing the market width in terms of 20 US-style "cents", the bets-odds solution would in that case turn out to be -155.71 / +135.71 (3.212% vig), yielding a sure profit of $51.47.Comment -
Ganch- I'm not sure how much his free play is for or the amount of funds that he has to make 7 parlays on his own but his profit would be higher using a 3 team parlay with 7 additional parlays.
This may not be a realistic choice. If it is and he were able to line shop for the additional parlays this could turn out quite profitable. Would you agree?Comment -
The 3-team parlay method only works if the player can fund it with freeplay cash, which in this case he can not do.
He'd need to spend real cash on the 7 additional 3-team parlays (rather than freeplay cash).
Hence at 6:1, he'd need to bet $600/7 ≈ $85.71 on each real cash parlay. This means his profit were the freeplay to win would be $600 - $85.71 * 7 = $0. His profit otherwise would be $85.71 * 6 - $85.71 *6 = $0.Comment -
You are correct as always my friend. I can't get anything by you.
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