1. #1
    d2bets
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    Barstool Buzzer Beater Promo

    Barstool Sportsbook has a wild buzzer beater promo.

    O1.5 (-180) buzzer beaters. That's defined as a game winning FG with subsequent clock stopped at 2.0 seconds less in regulation or OT. You then get a bonus multiplier if it's at least 1 full BB over the total. So if you bet the O1.5 and there are 3BB, you get a 2x bonus from stake. 4 BB = 4x bonus; 5=6x bonus; 6=8x bonus. Max stake $10k.

    Here's the stats: https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb...r-beaters.html

    Back out the free throws and the record is still strong. I see 10-4 in the last 14 years. And 7 of the 10 would have multipliers including 8x in 2016 with 6 BB.

    What I missing?

    Convince me not to put $10k on this.

    Plus, serious entertainment value.

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  2. #2
    rm18
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    It seems like slight fluke maybe like when Jason Williams missed 17 straight FTs or when Pats score first 17 times in a row even though always deferred. Or when the Rockets won 22 in a row with an average team. Pointsbet has a bet 20k at -250 or less and get $1999 in fp that one is better and is not so all or nothing.

  3. #3
    jjgold
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    why not try it

  4. #4
    Chi_archie
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    interesting

    to be clear, the shot has to win the game? a 3 to tie the game and send it to OT would NOT count, correct?

  5. #5
    dmm
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    Quote Originally Posted by d2bets View Post
    Barstool Sportsbook has a wild buzzer beater promo.

    O1.5 (-180) buzzer beaters. That's defined as a game winning FG with subsequent clock stopped at 2.0 seconds less in regulation or OT. You then get a bonus multiplier if it's at least 1 full BB over the total. So if you bet the O1.5 and there are 3BB, you get a 2x bonus from stake. 4 BB = 4x bonus; 5=6x bonus; 6=8x bonus. Max stake $10k.

    Here's the stats: https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb...r-beaters.html

    Back out the free throws and the record is still strong. I see 10-4 in the last 14 years. And 7 of the 10 would have multipliers including 8x in 2016 with 6 BB.

    What I missing?

    Convince me not to put $10k on this.

    Plus, serious entertainment value.

    They're going to let you bet $10k on a promo?
    Last edited by dmm; 03-16-21 at 01:28 PM.

  6. #6
    d2bets
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chi_archie View Post
    interesting

    to be clear, the shot has to win the game? a 3 to tie the game and send it to OT would NOT count, correct?
    Correct. Has to be a game winner.

    I was wondering if Team A hits go-ahead shot at 1.8 and then Team B scores to send it to OT where Team A wins...does that count? I'll assume not.
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  7. #7
    d2bets
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    Quote Originally Posted by dmm View Post
    They're going to let you bet $10k on s promo?
    That's exactly what it says.

    I know, why would they do that if it's a good deal?

    But the numbers sure do seem to support it. Unless I'm misreading something, it looks to me like a +EV bet even without the multiplier.
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  8. #8
    Chi_archie
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    Looks like it is

    "per round"

    so you'd need to get 2 buzzer beaters out of the first round (i'm assuming the 32 games and not adding the play-in games)

    you can re-bet it for the 2nd, 3rd round ect... but i'm hoping they would give updated odds for when you only have 16, 8, 4 games...

    with the first round games. You know a good chunk will have zero chance of being close enough for a buzzer beater

  9. #9
    d2bets
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chi_archie View Post
    Looks like it is

    "per round"

    so you'd need to get 2 buzzer beaters out of the first round (i'm assuming the 32 games and not adding the play-in games)

    you can re-bet it for the 2nd, 3rd round ect... but i'm hoping they would give updated odds for when you only have 16, 8, 4 games...

    with the first round games. You know a good chunk will have zero chance of being close enough for a buzzer beater
    No. They have it both ways. They have a total BB for the entire tourney at 1.5. Or you can bet the round of 64 or each day. I think the total tourney bet is the best one for sure. Looking at the chart, more BB happen in later rounds than in the first round. Which makes sense. A bunch of the first round matchups are not going to be close. But anything after Round 1 could be.

    So yes, they will do it by round and update later, but at this point I think the total tourney one at O1.5 is best. Also more gives means more chance to get to the big multipliers.
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  10. #10
    Chi_archie
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    oh I see

    the entire tourney, all games is over 1.5 -180


    round of 64 friday games over .5 +140

    round of 64 saturday games over .5 +140

  11. #11
    d2bets
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chi_archie View Post
    oh I see

    the entire tourney, all games is over 1.5 -180


    round of 64 friday games over .5 +140

    round of 64 saturday games over .5 +140
    Yeah and they have full round of 64 at over 0.5-190.

    Entire tourney is the way to go to have the best chance to hit the multipliers.
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  12. #12
    MrMiami
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    Are there rollover requirements on the bonus multiplier payouts?
    Last edited by MrMiami; 03-16-21 at 09:03 AM. Reason: Rollover added

  13. #13
    d2bets
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    Quote Originally Posted by MrMiami View Post
    Are there rollover requirements on the bonus multiplier payouts?
    Yes. 1x rollover on -200 or higher.
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  14. #14
    pologq
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    if you can afford the bet i think it is worth it

  15. #15
    d2bets
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    Quote Originally Posted by pologq View Post
    if you can afford the bet i think it is worth it
    Not like it has to be 10k. It can be anything up to 10k. I'm just trying to ascertain how +EV this is. I think it's super +EV, but I'm trying to figure out if I'm missing something. I know there's some risk in games possibly being canceled.
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  16. #16
    TommieGunshot
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    I would be willing to bet up to -200 without the bonus. At -180, plus a bonus, it definitely looks like it should be worth taking a max bet on.
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  17. #17
    d2bets
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    Quote Originally Posted by TommieGunshot View Post
    I would be willing to bet up to -200 without the bonus. At -180, plus a bonus, it definitely looks like it should be worth taking a max bet on.
    Thanks for the input. I agree, but I'm still trying to figure out why they are offering this and what I might be missing. But I think I am going to fire away. Plus, it's fun as hell to have this on the line for the inevitable late close games.
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  18. #18
    pologq
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    Quote Originally Posted by d2bets View Post
    Thanks for the input. I agree, but I'm still trying to figure out why they are offering this and what I might be missing. But I think I am going to fire away. Plus, it's fun as hell to have this on the line for the inevitable late close games.
    maybe they have it as a way to drum up some interest in their book with a pretty likely bet. might be overthinking the reason.

  19. #19
    TheMetsSuck
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    Iíd bet it if barstool was legal in Cali

  20. #20
    PaperTrail07
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    Seems like the value is there.....like you said whats the catch

  21. #21
    d2bets
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    Quote Originally Posted by pologq View Post
    maybe they have it as a way to drum up some interest in their book with a pretty likely bet. might be overthinking the reason.
    Yeah, I guess. I just would have figured them to set the limit lower than $10k per wager ($80k potential bonus). Normally places offer sweet promos where they let you bet 50 or 100 or something like that. $10k with a potential $80k bonus is a whole other category.

    It's not like they could know what's gonna happen or fix it. Obviously the kids are going to try to win the game at the end.

    And I just feel like in a year like no other we are gonna see a lot of these. Maybe not, who knows. Will be fun to watch for sure.

    Anyone remember 2016? There were 6 buzzer beaters that would have qualified, including the title game.
    Last edited by d2bets; 03-16-21 at 04:01 PM.
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  22. #22
    jjgold
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    Barstool lost about 872k last month sportsbetting PA

  23. #23
    d2bets
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    Barstool lost about 872k last month sportsbetting PA
    Interesting. Hey, they're giving away money, might as well take some of it.
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  24. #24
    jjgold
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    Take it

    I still donít get it what has to happen to win a bet

  25. #25
    d2bets
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    Take it

    I still don’t get it what has to happen to win a bet
    A "buzzer beater" is defined as a field goal made by one team within the last 2.0 seconds of regulation or OT to win the game outright. The line is O1.5-180. If it hits 2, it's a regular win. If there are 3 buzzer beaters, then you win plus 2x stake multiplier; 4 = 4x stake; 5=6x stake; 6=8x stake.
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  26. #26
    sjm5122
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  27. #27
    Orbison
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    anyone done this yet?

  28. #28
    d2bets
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    Quote Originally Posted by sjm5122 View Post
    Yeah, that's what I linked earlier. For the record:

    2019: 1
    2018: 3
    2017: 2
    2016: 6
    2015: 1
    2014: 2
    2013: 2
    2012: 0
    2011: 3
    2010: 4
    2009: 3
    2008: 3
    2007: 1
    2006: 3
    2005: 0
    2004: 1
    2003: 2
    2002: 1
    2001: 2
    2000: 2
    1999: 0
    1998: 5
    1997: 1
    1996: 0
    1995: 3
    1994: 0
    1993: 2
    1992: 3
    1991: 2
    1990: 6

    So that's 30 years worth. 64 times for an average of 2.13
    The distribution (and hypothetical 180/100 wager each year)

    0....5 (-900)
    1....6 (-1080)
    2....8 (+800)
    3....7 (+2100)
    4....1 (+500)
    5....1 (+700)
    6....2 (+1800)

    That's +$3,920 profit on a $180 wager on this each year ($5,400 total). Off the charts +EV.
    Last edited by d2bets; 03-16-21 at 07:17 PM.
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  29. #29
    sjm5122
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    Ah sorry I missed it in your post
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  30. #30
    d2bets
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    Quote Originally Posted by Orbison View Post
    anyone done this yet?
    Yes. Not quite the max, but substantial.
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  31. #31
    jjgold
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    They could possibly get killed on this

  32. #32
    rm18
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    They could possibly get killed on this
    Maybe but the other books paying celebs like Jamie Foxx and Iverson big ad budgets thats why I don't think they will be successful too many expenses and really not many big bettors out there.

  33. #33
    d2bets
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    Barstool moved the odds from -180 to -220. Still a good bet because the value is in the multiplier. They must have taken a bunch of big wagers.
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  34. #34
    PaperTrail07
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    Hope you smash em on this
    Quote Originally Posted by d2bets View Post
    Barstool moved the odds from -180 to -220. Still a good bet because the value is in the multiplier. They must have taken a bunch of big wagers.

  35. #35
    sweep
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    Quote Originally Posted by d2bets View Post
    Yeah, that's what I linked earlier. For the record:

    2019: 1
    2018: 3
    2017: 2
    2016: 6
    2015: 1
    2014: 2
    2013: 2
    2012: 0
    2011: 3
    2010: 4
    2009: 3
    2008: 3
    2007: 1
    2006: 3
    2005: 0
    2004: 1
    2003: 2
    2002: 1
    2001: 2
    2000: 2
    1999: 0
    1998: 5
    1997: 1
    1996: 0
    1995: 3
    1994: 0
    1993: 2
    1992: 3
    1991: 2
    1990: 6

    So that's 30 years worth. 64 times for an average of 2.13
    The distribution (and hypothetical 180/100 wager each year)

    0....5 (-900)
    1....6 (-1080)
    2....8 (+800)
    3....7 (+2100)
    4....1 (+500)
    5....1 (+700)
    6....2 (+1800)

    That's +$3,920 profit on a $180 wager on this each year ($5,400 total). Off the charts +EV.

    I'm only seeing 4 games that qualify from 1990, not 6...

    2 qualify from 2009, not 3

    Id have to read the fine print...not sure if and one's count...
    Last edited by sweep; 03-17-21 at 01:51 PM.
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