Barstool Buzzer Beater Promo

[d2bets]

Barstool Sportsbook has a wild buzzer beater promo.

O1.5 (-180) buzzer beaters. That's defined as a game winning FG with subsequent clock stopped at 2.0 seconds less in regulation or OT. You then get a bonus multiplier if it's at least 1 full BB over the total. So if you bet the O1.5 and there are 3BB, you get a 2x bonus from stake. 4 BB = 4x bonus; 5=6x bonus; 6=8x bonus. Max stake $10k.

Here's the stats: https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb...r-beaters.html

Back out the free throws and the record is still strong. I see 10-4 in the last 14 years. And 7 of the 10 would have multipliers including 8x in 2016 with 6 BB.

What I missing?

Convince me not to put $10k on this.

Plus, serious entertainment value.

[rm18]

It seems like slight fluke maybe like when Jason Williams missed 17 straight FTs or when Pats score first 17 times in a row even though always deferred. Or when the Rockets won 22 in a row with an average team. Pointsbet has a bet 20k at -250 or less and get $1999 in fp that one is better and is not so all or nothing.

[jjgold]

why not try it

[Chi_archie]

interesting

to be clear, the shot has to win the game? a 3 to tie the game and send it to OT would NOT count, correct?

[dmm]

Barstool Sportsbook has a wild buzzer beater promo.

O1.5 (-180) buzzer beaters. That's defined as a game winning FG with subsequent clock stopped at 2.0 seconds less in regulation or OT. You then get a bonus multiplier if it's at least 1 full BB over the total. So if you bet the O1.5 and there are 3BB, you get a 2x bonus from stake. 4 BB = 4x bonus; 5=6x bonus; 6=8x bonus. Max stake $10k.

Here's the stats: https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb...r-beaters.html

Back out the free throws and the record is still strong. I see 10-4 in the last 14 years. And 7 of the 10 would have multipliers including 8x in 2016 with 6 BB.

What I missing?

Convince me not to put $10k on this.

Plus, serious entertainment value.

They're going to let you bet $10k on a promo?

[d2bets]

interesting

to be clear, the shot has to win the game? a 3 to tie the game and send it to OT would NOT count, correct?

Correct. Has to be a game winner.

I was wondering if Team A hits go-ahead shot at 1.8 and then Team B scores to send it to OT where Team A wins...does that count? I'll assume not.

[d2bets]

They're going to let you bet $10k on s promo?

That's exactly what it says.

I know, why would they do that if it's a good deal?

But the numbers sure do seem to support it. Unless I'm misreading something, it looks to me like a +EV bet even without the multiplier.

[Chi_archie]

Looks like it is

"per round"

so you'd need to get 2 buzzer beaters out of the first round (i'm assuming the 32 games and not adding the play-in games)

you can re-bet it for the 2nd, 3rd round ect... but i'm hoping they would give updated odds for when you only have 16, 8, 4 games...

with the first round games. You know a good chunk will have zero chance of being close enough for a buzzer beater

[d2bets]

Looks like it is

"per round"

so you'd need to get 2 buzzer beaters out of the first round (i'm assuming the 32 games and not adding the play-in games)

you can re-bet it for the 2nd, 3rd round ect... but i'm hoping they would give updated odds for when you only have 16, 8, 4 games...

with the first round games. You know a good chunk will have zero chance of being close enough for a buzzer beater

No. They have it both ways. They have a total BB for the entire tourney at 1.5. Or you can bet the round of 64 or each day. I think the total tourney bet is the best one for sure. Looking at the chart, more BB happen in later rounds than in the first round. Which makes sense. A bunch of the first round matchups are not going to be close. But anything after Round 1 could be.

So yes, they will do it by round and update later, but at this point I think the total tourney one at O1.5 is best. Also more gives means more chance to get to the big multipliers.

[Chi_archie]

oh I see

the entire tourney, all games is over 1.5 -180


round of 64 friday games over .5 +140

round of 64 saturday games over .5 +140

[d2bets]

oh I see

the entire tourney, all games is over 1.5 -180


round of 64 friday games over .5 +140

round of 64 saturday games over .5 +140

Yeah and they have full round of 64 at over 0.5-190.

Entire tourney is the way to go to have the best chance to hit the multipliers.

[MrMiami]

Are there rollover requirements on the bonus multiplier payouts?

[d2bets]

Are there rollover requirements on the bonus multiplier payouts?

Yes. 1x rollover on -200 or higher.

[pologq]

if you can afford the bet i think it is worth it

[d2bets]

if you can afford the bet i think it is worth it

Not like it has to be 10k. It can be anything up to 10k. I'm just trying to ascertain how +EV this is. I think it's super +EV, but I'm trying to figure out if I'm missing something. I know there's some risk in games possibly being canceled.

[TommieGunshot]

I would be willing to bet up to -200 without the bonus. At -180, plus a bonus, it definitely looks like it should be worth taking a max bet on.

[d2bets]

I would be willing to bet up to -200 without the bonus. At -180, plus a bonus, it definitely looks like it should be worth taking a max bet on.

Thanks for the input. I agree, but I'm still trying to figure out why they are offering this and what I might be missing. But I think I am going to fire away. Plus, it's fun as hell to have this on the line for the inevitable late close games.

[pologq]

Thanks for the input. I agree, but I'm still trying to figure out why they are offering this and what I might be missing. But I think I am going to fire away. Plus, it's fun as hell to have this on the line for the inevitable late close games.

maybe they have it as a way to drum up some interest in their book with a pretty likely bet. might be overthinking the reason.

[TheMetsSuck]

I’d bet it if barstool was legal in Cali

[PaperTrail07]

Seems like the value is there.....like you said whats the catch

[d2bets]

maybe they have it as a way to drum up some interest in their book with a pretty likely bet. might be overthinking the reason.

Yeah, I guess. I just would have figured them to set the limit lower than $10k per wager ($80k potential bonus). Normally places offer sweet promos where they let you bet 50 or 100 or something like that. $10k with a potential $80k bonus is a whole other category.

It's not like they could know what's gonna happen or fix it. Obviously the kids are going to try to win the game at the end.

And I just feel like in a year like no other we are gonna see a lot of these. Maybe not, who knows. Will be fun to watch for sure.

Anyone remember 2016? There were 6 buzzer beaters that would have qualified, including the title game.

[jjgold]

Barstool lost about 872k last month sportsbetting PA

[d2bets]

Barstool lost about 872k last month sportsbetting PA

Interesting. Hey, they're giving away money, might as well take some of it.

[jjgold]

Take it

I still don’t get it what has to happen to win a bet

[d2bets]

Take it

I still don’t get it what has to happen to win a bet

A "buzzer beater" is defined as a field goal made by one team within the last 2.0 seconds of regulation or OT to win the game outright. The line is O1.5-180. If it hits 2, it's a regular win. If there are 3 buzzer beaters, then you win plus 2x stake multiplier; 4 = 4x stake; 5=6x stake; 6=8x stake.

[sjm5122]

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/friv/ncaa-buzzer-beaters.html

Found this for reference

[Orbison]

anyone done this yet?

[d2bets]

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb...r-beaters.html

Found this for reference

Yeah, that's what I linked earlier. For the record:

2019: 1
2018: 3
2017: 2
2016: 6
2015: 1
2014: 2
2013: 2
2012: 0
2011: 3
2010: 4
2009: 3
2008: 3
2007: 1
2006: 3
2005: 0
2004: 1
2003: 2
2002: 1
2001: 2
2000: 2
1999: 0
1998: 5
1997: 1
1996: 0
1995: 3
1994: 0
1993: 2
1992: 3
1991: 2
1990: 6

So that's 30 years worth. 64 times for an average of 2.13
The distribution (and hypothetical 180/100 wager each year)

0....5 (-900)
1....6 (-1080)
2....8 (+800)
3....7 (+2100)
4....1 (+500)
5....1 (+700)
6....2 (+1800)

That's +$3,920 profit on a $180 wager on this each year ($5,400 total). Off the charts +EV.

[sjm5122]

Ah sorry I missed it in your post

[d2bets]

anyone done this yet?

Yes. Not quite the max, but substantial.

[jjgold]

They could possibly get killed on this

[rm18]

They could possibly get killed on this

Maybe but the other books paying celebs like Jamie Foxx and Iverson big ad budgets thats why I don't think they will be successful too many expenses and really not many big bettors out there.

[d2bets]

Barstool moved the odds from -180 to -220. Still a good bet because the value is in the multiplier. They must have taken a bunch of big wagers.

[PaperTrail07]

Hope you smash em on this

Barstool moved the odds from -180 to -220. Still a good bet because the value is in the multiplier. They must have taken a bunch of big wagers.

[sweep]

Yeah, that's what I linked earlier. For the record:

2019: 1
2018: 3
2017: 2
2016: 6
2015: 1
2014: 2
2013: 2
2012: 0
2011: 3
2010: 4
2009: 3
2008: 3
2007: 1
2006: 3
2005: 0
2004: 1
2003: 2
2002: 1
2001: 2
2000: 2
1999: 0
1998: 5
1997: 1
1996: 0
1995: 3
1994: 0
1993: 2
1992: 3
1991: 2
1990: 6

So that's 30 years worth. 64 times for an average of 2.13
The distribution (and hypothetical 180/100 wager each year)

0....5 (-900)
1....6 (-1080)
2....8 (+800)
3....7 (+2100)
4....1 (+500)
5....1 (+700)
6....2 (+1800)

That's +$3,920 profit on a $180 wager on this each year ($5,400 total). Off the charts +EV.

I'm only seeing 4 games that qualify from 1990, not 6...

2 qualify from 2009, not 3

Id have to read the fine print...not sure if and one's count...