In Defense of Sportsbook.com

[ShamsWoof10]

Hmm, I'll see if I can whip up a simplified rule of thumb that can be used here. i might simply use every two touchdown favorite or more and post those numbers.

OK, did some database questioning. I checked all games with spreads larger than 13.5 (ie 14 or more).

The covariance was 55.15365%. In other words the favorite and the over or the dog and the under come in over 55% of the time. Now, the average spread in these games is 20.3 and average ou is 54. This means the EV for the dogs is about 16.85. The lower the dog's ev in points goes, the higher the covariance, so you can see why this might piss off the books.

Can you give me figures on HALFS..? I am "assuming" it's a higher pecentage but I would be interested to know...

SHAMMY AS express my sentiments exactly....i would also ad :

your book review is highly informative and accurate

Thanks Spec. I appreciate the kind words... I am just trying to figure out what's up is all..

[Wheell]

Sadly I do not have halves in an accessible database. Your assumption is almost certainly correct.

[HedgeHog]

Hmm, I'll see if I can whip up a simplified rule of thumb that can be used here. i might simply use every two touchdown favorite or more and post those numbers.

OK, did some database questioning. I checked all games with spreads larger than 13.5 (ie 14 or more).

The covariance was 55.15365%. In other words the favorite and the over or the dog and the under come in over 55% of the time. Now, the average spread in these games is 20.3 and average ou is 54. This means the EV for the dogs is about 16.85. The lower the dog's ev in points goes, the higher the covariance, so you can see why this might piss off the books.

That's why all respected Books have software to deny such parlays. And then there are shit books like Sportsbook.com that are too cheap to upgrade.

[Art Vandeleigh]

OK. Thanks.

I must be a simpleton or something because it still just doesn't add up to me.

If I bet 1 unit dog/under, and 1 unit fav/over, I will have bet 2 units and a return of 3.6 units 55% of the time which is 1.98 units return on average, I'm still down if I just pick all games at random.

[Wheell]

You are not being a simpleton. Here is what you are missing:

1. If the lines are at -105 you are making money at random.

2. Much more importantly, as the dogs expected points drops the covariance increases. It eventually gets to absurd levels.