Explain these odds to me on Mayweather

iifold · 05-01-10, 04:42 PM

colt is a statistical genius, ask him

pokernut9999 · 05-01-10, 04:44 PM

Looks like they don't think he will win by TKO

iifold · 05-01-10, 04:48 PM

i think he means its cheaper to bet both props. could be wrong, im no justin7 or colt

DrStale · 05-01-10, 04:48 PM

Why would anyone bet on him to win at -410?

Why not just bet the other 2?

bogbat · 05-01-10, 04:53 PM

Mosley has never been stopped and Mayweather boxes defensively unless his opponent is overly aggressive. Mayweather by decision is the most likely scenario.

TWEETS · 05-01-10, 04:54 PM

My guess on the odds is that if it ends in a draw you get a refund on the win bet, but you would lose the other 2. Kind of like a soccer 3 way line.

iifold · 05-01-10, 04:54 PM

i dont think they understand you stale

DrStale · 05-01-10, 04:55 PM

Originally posted by bogbat

Mosley has never been stopped and Mayweather boxes defensively unless his opponent is overly aggressive. Mayweather by decision is the most likely scenario.

I agree with you, I'm just curious about the way the lines are being offered. Seems like a mistake on the part of the book unless im missing something.

Would the book cancel the wager if both props were bet?

DrStale · 05-01-10, 04:57 PM

Originally posted by TWEETS

My guess on the odds is that if it ends in a draw you get a refund on the win bet, but you would lose the other 2. Kind of like a soccer 3 way line.

Possible, but it seems unlikely to me because a draw is +2800. Wouldn't seem to cover very much of the differential.

iifold · 05-01-10, 04:57 PM

Originally posted by TWEETS

My guess on the odds is that if it ends in a draw you get a refund on the win bet, but you would lose the other 2. Kind of like a soccer 3 way line.

ding ding ding

gryfyn1 · 05-01-10, 05:01 PM

Never mind, need to think more ...

You have to cover the losses of the other bets.

To winn 100 by KO you need 310 because you need to win the extra 60 to cover the TKO/draw losses; to win the TKO you'd need to bet about 100 to cover the 200 loss on the KO/Draw bet,

gryfyn1 · 05-01-10, 05:02 PM

Originally posted by TWEETS

My guess on the odds is that if it ends in a draw you get a refund on the win bet, but you would lose the other 2. Kind of like a soccer 3 way line.

then just add that bet too .. at +2800 it wouldn't take much of a bet to cover the losses either

pavyracer · 05-01-10, 05:03 PM

Means the fight is fixed for PPV reasons. They would want to sucker as many people as possible to watch it and the only way it's to agree on 12 round fight.

DrStale · 05-01-10, 05:05 PM

The point is between comparing the two sets of odds Pavy. I agree that Mayweather wins, I just don't get the offerings.

pokernut9999 · 05-01-10, 05:05 PM

Originally posted by DrStale

Why would anyone bet on him to win at -410?

Why not just bet the other 2?

If he wins by decision you break even.

If he loses outright you lose 2.9 units.

DrStale · 05-01-10, 05:07 PM

Originally posted by pokernut9999

If he wins by decision you break even.

If he loses outright you lose 2.9 units.

If he wins by decision how do I break even if by decision is -190 and other is +350.

DrStale · 05-01-10, 05:10 PM

My hangover and inability to think have not only prohibited me from being able to wrap my head around this one but it also prohibited me from realizing I probably should have posted this in the Think Tank. Oy.

pokernut9999 · 05-01-10, 05:13 PM

Originally posted by DrStale

If he wins by decision how do I break even if by decision is -190 and other is +350.

Do not think a fight has ever ended with a decision and TKO

pokernut9999 · 05-01-10, 05:15 PM

Originally posted by DrStale

My hangover and inability to think have not only prohibited me from being able to wrap my head around this one but it also prohibited me from realizing I probably should have posted this in the Think Tank. Oy.

Or just think before posting

DrStale · 05-01-10, 05:17 PM

Ok, if someone who actually understands math would respond that would be great.

Pokernut feel free to leave.

gryfyn1 · 05-01-10, 05:23 PM

Originally posted by DrStale

Ok, if someone who actually understands math would respond that would be great.

Pokernut feel free to leave.

You need to cover the loss of the other option --

Think of it this way

If you bet him to win you bet 410 to win 100

Now if you split between props

320 by KO
90 by Disc

320 @ -190 pays about 170 (-90 for the other bet) total +$80
90 @ +350 pays about 315 (-320 for the other bet lost) total -$5

pokernut9999 · 05-01-10, 05:23 PM

Originally posted by DrStale

Ok, if someone who actually understands math would respond that would be great.

Pokernut feel free to leave.

Mayweather by decision -190
Mayweather by KO/TKO/DQ +350

Only 1 prop can win

Fight ends one of 3 ways

1. Draw
2. Decision
3. TKO

UntilTheNDofTimE · 05-01-10, 05:39 PM

Dr Stale here's your explanation

You'd be betting

410/100 on Mayweather to win

Now you have to think on the most logical assumption that Mayweather wins by decsion

190/100 by decision
100/350 by TKO

Your basically risking 290 here to break even choosing to bet these 2 props.

So get the value back that you receive from the -410 youd have to get Mayweather Moneyline for -120.

-410 has much more value that betting these 2 props individually. Especially since you push on Mayweather -410 in a draw situation.

DrStale · 05-01-10, 05:43 PM

Originally posted by UntilTheNDofTimE

Dr Stale here's your explanation

You'd be betting

410/100 on Mayweather to win

Now you have to think on the most logical assumption that Mayweather wins by decsion

190/100 by decision
100/350 by TKO

Your basically risking 290 here to break even.

-410 has much more value that betting these 2 props individually. Especially since you push on Mayweather -410 in a draw situation.

Much appreciated, and thanks to gryfyn as well.

I see what you're saying here, but let's say I have:

190 to win 100 decision.
25 or 50 to win 87.50 or 175 on TKO.

UntilTheNDofTimE · 05-01-10, 05:47 PM

Originally posted by DrStale

Much appreciated, and thanks to gryfyn as well.

I see what you're saying here, but let's say I have:

190 to win 100 decision.
25 or 50 to win 87.50 or 175 on TKO.

Its the same thing because it is in Ratio.

In your example

190/100
50/175

Again we have to assume mayweather wins by decision. This is how we determine expected value.

so your wagering 240 to win 50(-480)

Whereas Mayweather ML is offered at -410 and you push on a draw.

gryfyn1 · 05-01-10, 05:50 PM

Originally posted by DrStale

Much appreciated, and thanks to gryfyn as well.

I see what you're saying here, but let's say I have:

190 to win 100 decision.
25 or 50 to win 87.50 or 175 on TKO.

if he wins by descision you are up $75 or $50
by TKO you are -102.5 or -15
On a draw you are -225 or -240

If you just bet 240 to win you'd be +60

pokernut9999 · 05-01-10, 05:50 PM

Originally posted by DrStale

Much appreciated, and thanks to gryfyn as well.

I see what you're saying here, but let's say I have:

190 to win 100 decision.
25 or 50 to win 87.50 or 175 on TKO.

Bet 190 to win 100 decision
Bet 50 to win 175 TKO

If he wins by decision you win $50
If he wins by TKO you lose $15

If he lose the fight

or a draw you lose $240

DrStale · 05-01-10, 05:51 PM

Originally posted by UntilTheNDofTimE

Its the same thing because it is in Ratio.

In your example

190/100
50/175

Again we have to assume mayweather wins by decision. This is how we determine expected value.

so your wagering 240 to win 50(-480)

Whereas Mayweather ML is offered at -410 and you push on a draw.

And all of this should have been clear to me from the get go. I think I need a nap.

Much appreciated gentlemen, ill be playing Mayweather by decision.

pokernut9999 · 05-01-10, 05:53 PM

Originally posted by DrStale

And all of this should have been clear to me from the get go. I think I need a nap.

Much appreciated gentlemen, ill be playing Mayweather by decision.

And **** you for the insult.