1. #1
    Hman
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    A Look Back At The Swine Flu In 2009/2010 🕦

    A look back at swine flu: 8 facts about the world's last pandemic in 2009

    Mackenzie Bean


    The World Health Organization on March 11 declared the COVID-19 outbreak a pandemic, the first such declaration in 11 years.

    Here's a look back on the 2009 swine flu pandemic with eight key facts from the CDC:

    1. The flu strain responsible for the outbreak influenza A (H1N1)pdm09 was first detected in America in April 2009.

    2. The strain represented a unique combination of influenza viruses never before seen in humans or animals.

    3. The virus quickly spread globally, primarily affecting children and adults under 65 who lacked immunity to H1N1.

    4. The WHO declared the swine flu outbreak a pandemic on June 11, 2009.

    5. Between April 12, 2009, and April 10, 2010, the CDC estimates swine flu caused 60.8 million illnesses, 273,304 hospitalizations and 12,469 deaths in the U.S.

    6. On Oct. 5, 2009, the U.S. began administering a newly approved H1N1 vaccine to select Americans, with vaccination coverage expanding nationwide by that December.

    7. WHO declared an end to the pandemic on Aug. 10, 2010.

    8. Globally, an estimated 151,700 to 575,400 people died from swine flu in the first year of the pandemic.

  2. #2
    Hman
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    What stands out to me is #5 and #10.

    Looking at #5 It appears the swine flu was more contagious by far.


    With the statistics in #8, could the deaths worldwide end up being close to the same??

    But why is it this time around the deaths are higher in the U.S.??

  3. #3
    Wabashwonders
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hman View Post
    What stands out to me is #5 and #10.

    Looking at #5 It appears the swine flu was more contagious by far.


    With the statistics in #8, could the deaths worldwide end up being close to the same??

    But why is it this time around the deaths are higher in the U.S.??
    The swine flu was treated like the seasonal flu because it was similar. As #2 states, it was a combination of viruses, some of which had been around years ago which is why older people were immune to it, which is why more people are dying this time. In 2009, we did not do social distancing so can’t really compare numbers equally. Numbers would obviously be much higher now if we treated this like a seasonal flu.

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    Chi_archie
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hman View Post
    What stands out to me is #5 and #10.

    Looking at #5 It appears the swine flu was more contagious by far.


    With the statistics in #8, could the deaths worldwide end up being close to the same??

    But why is it this time around the deaths are higher in the U.S.??
    you realize you are comparing numbers from H1N1 of 1 year and some of which are for 17-18months April 09 through Oct10

    to a period of time under 6 weeks

    how do you think you can make any conclusions other than

    a) coronavirus is way more contagious and deadly
    b) the world leaders of 2009-2010 were much more adept at handling a health crisis than today's leaders

  5. #5
    Chi_archie
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    https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...s-oranges.html


    from this thread over 2 weeks ago.

    Quote Originally Posted by Chi_archie View Post
    The flu every year is just a mutated form of a human virus that has been around for centuries. your body knows how to fight it, you were born with a immune system that was designed for this fight. Its literally written into your gene code. And every year of your life when you are exposed to various tweaks and versions of the basic flu. you build and keep specific antibodies that will sit and wait to be called upon for the next tiny tweak of the flu structure you are exposed to

    Novel virus means that it doesn't come from humans. its a mutated form of an animal virus. It doesn't at all work like the flu does in attacking the body (even if symptoms are similar) On a cellular level your body is completely dumbfounded with how to defend itself. Your Genes have nothing set up for this battle. your immune system has to start from scratch. Secondly covid19 seems to mutate and figure out ways to make itself more deadly and spread quicker. its already mutated once in humans. so we have 2 strains. We have no clue if the next mutation and strain will suddenly attack young lung cells or be a 50% mortality rate ect. its a complete unknown. So we have to contain it now

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    jjgold
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    Archie great post

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    Chi_archie
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chi_archie View Post
    how do you think you can make any conclusions other than

    a) coronavirus is way more contagious and deadly
    b) the world leaders of 2009-2010 were much more adept at handling a health crisis than today's leaders
    and let's say for sake of argument that world wide we end up with deaths in the range of or better than 151,700 to 575,400 but the United States ends up doing better than currently expected with 50,000 dead.

    Does that not mean that the current leadership in our country bungled this compared to other countries and certainly compared to a virus that you deem much more contagious, yet led to 12,500 vs 50,000 deaths?

    keep in mind H1N1 deaths began in North America and America, we had much less time to prepare to that virus

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    Hman
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chi_archie View Post
    you realize you are comparing numbers from H1N1 of 1 year



    Yes arch

    As of today, 4-5 months in, there are approximately 84,000 deaths worldwide from Corona.

    In 12-18 months, swine killed 151,700 to 575,400 globally.


    Mathematically those could end up being very similar numbers.

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    Chi_archie
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hman View Post
    Yes arch

    As of today, 4-5 months in, there are approximately 84,000 deaths worldwide from Corona.

    In 12-18 months, swine killed 151,700 to 575,400 globally.


    Mathematically those could end up being very similar numbers.
    yeah you still don't grasp the whole exponential factor

    that is why early on you were comparing US deaths to this to US deaths from Swine flu

    you didn't understand then and were wrong and you don't understand now

    but let me make this part bigger, because i'm not sure why you aren't thinking of this huge variable.

    We didn't lock down, close schools, wear masks, stop flying, stop funerals, stop parties, stop grocery shopping for H1N1

    do you remember science class in school? do you remember independent and dependent and multi variates?

    do you think our social distancing behavior is a huge variable that will make H1N1 uncomparable to Covid19?

    c'mon let's use our brains

  10. #10
    Chi_archie
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    "yeah maybe not as contagious"

    Feb 8 0 us deaths
    Mar 8- 21 deaths
    April 8 - 14,768 deaths


    4 weeks ago- 1,267 cases
    3 weeks ago- 8,736 cases
    2 weeks ago- 65,273 cases
    1 week ago- 212,692 cases
    right now - 435,167 cases


    it amazes me that people are still playing checkers trying to project numbers from their recliner as if this is a NBA under 240 bet and thinking... ah its the first quarter and they scored under 55 points. This full game Under is on PACE to hit!!!!!

  11. #11
    Hman
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    Arch my friend, I'm not downplaying the seriousness of Covid

    If anything, I'm trying to compare & project, to give us hope.

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    TheLock
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chi_archie View Post
    you realize you are comparing numbers from H1N1 of 1 year and some of which are for 17-18months April 09 through Oct10

    to a period of time under 6 weeks

    how do you think you can make any conclusions other than

    a) coronavirus is way more contagious and deadly
    b) the world leaders of 2009-2010 were much more adept at handling a health crisis than today's leaders
    Agreed.


    Another thing that struck me was......how did they have a vaccine widely available in 8 months?

  13. #13
    Chi_archie
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hman View Post
    Arch my friend, I'm not downplaying the seriousness of Covid

    If anything, I'm trying to compare & project, to give us hope.
    I'm not saying you are downplaying it. I'm offering feedback on your "projection model" and conclusions

    you are projecting wrongly, comparing unlike things, labeling current data wrongly and still and you are not accounting for variables.

    let me put it this way.

    Let's say the Virus is Barry Bonds on roids in his prime. As the manager you are going to do everything you can to mitigate his power and ability to hurt you, put lefties out there, Pitch your best Pitchers with their best pitches, and mostly you give him shitty off speed pitches in the dirt and walk him over 200 times a year. - that is a social distancing.

    Would it be fair to compare the 1987 version of Bond's home runs in a season with the above scenario with a hypothetical situaton where we just using a Pitching machine for every AB grooving 90 Mph's for the same amount of AB's as his 2001 season.

    its very possible that Bonds would hit WAY more homeruns, (prob double) in that 1987 version than the 2001 version.


    would it be fair to conclude that 1987 Bonds was a better power hitter than 2001?


    no. you can't take compare too unlike situations

    social mitigation modeling is telling us that without our measures we could have 1.2-2.4 million had we done nothing. Lets just say for the sake of argument it was just a mere 1/10th of that. That is still 120,000-240,000 dead. That is 10-20 times more than H1N1 was this country. So those practices appear like they could be hugely succesful

  14. #14
    Booya711
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    All I know is that we weren’t given “play by play” 24 hours a day with the swine flu so the panic wasn’t there.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Hman View Post
    Looking at #5 It appears the swine flu was more contagious by far.
    Not quite understanding what you are basing your conclusion on, but it's been widely concluded that covid19 is more contagious than swine flu and influenza in general. The Basic Reproductive Number for swine flu was calculated to be around 1.5 where as that number for covid19 is estimated to be in the 2 to 3 range.

  16. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLock View Post
    Agreed.


    Another thing that struck me was......how did they have a vaccine widely available in 8 months?
    maybe because there was a flu vaccine and they had the basis of it already approved and needed to tweak? just my guess

    wish we had a vaccine asap for this somehow

  17. #17
    krk1030
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    Why did the vaccine only take 6 months.

    This one has been developed and we are told a year minimum for all the testing and trials.

  18. #18
    Chi_archie
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLock View Post
    Agreed.


    Another thing that struck me was......how did they have a vaccine widely available in 8 months?
    because H1N1 was a flu strain. Humans are born with natural immune defenses to any Flu strain, some more than others. Humans acquire throughout their lives more antibodies that fight the flu. So to create a vaccine they just had to put that strain into the next year's production of flu vaccines.

    we still get H1N1 in our yearly vaccine. H1N1 is still around, mutating every year

    Coronavirus is not a human virus. its a zoonatic, started in humans. Its NOVEL. meaning no human has any genetic or acquired immunity to this. ZERO

    that is why the health care system became a great concern and we went to flatten the curve.

    during bad flu seasons, all the health care providers get a flu shot, and they have their natural immunities for defense. Thus they don't really even need much PPE.

    They went into this Covid19 fight completely defenseless and naked.

    creating a novel vaccine is starting from scratch and needs to be tested so that we don't unknowingly inject millions and billions of people with something, that might end up detoriating their lungs or liver or any other crazy side effects. 3 months after the shot. Or that even the small amount of covid19 that they put into our body in the vaccine, doesn't start to replicate and actually infect us with a bad case of covid19 instead of give us immunity. That is why they are doing trials now, to see how tolerable the vaccine is over a relative short period of time.

    dont be surprised if the Covid19 vaccine of 2021 starts getting blamed for all sorts of issues like autism in children once we get to the 2030's
    Last edited by Chi_archie; 04-09-20 at 09:22 AM.

  19. #19
    Chi_archie
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    here are this past season's flu vaccines... note the H1N1s

    and note the use of locations and tell that to anyone that objects to us calling this the China Virus or Wuhan Virus

    Flu vaccines are updated to better match viruses expected to be circulating in the United States.
    • The A(H1N1)pdm09 vaccine component was updated from an A/Michigan/45/2015 (H1N1)pdm09-like virus to an A/Brisbane/02/2018 (H1N1)pdm09-like virus.
    • The A(H3N2) vaccine component was updated from an A/Singapore/INFIMH-16-0019/2016 A(H3N2)-like virus to an A/Kansas/14/2017 (H3N2)-like virus.
    • Both B/Victoria and B/Yamagata virus components from the 2018-2019 flu vaccine remain the same for the 2019-2020 flu vaccine.



    https://www.cdc.gov/flu/season/faq-f...-2019-2020.htm

  20. #20
    Chi_archie
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    Quote Originally Posted by Booya711 View Post
    All I know is that we weren’t given “play by play” 24 hours a day with the swine flu so the panic wasn’t there.

    I would say we were when kids got back to school and the virus starting circulating like crazy in Oct

    remember we had our first cases and deaths and April and since it was a FLU unlike covid. It went away mostly for the summer.

    what was the media going to do on July 15th

    "today there were 10 new cases of H1N1 in our country, and no deaths"

    it didn't become a problem until October and as the vaccine was rolled out, there was panic because we couldn't keep up with the demand.



    but here is the biggy.

    how many older people and parents were on twitter and facebook back then? how many people consumed news through their phone?

    I wasn't old, but I didn't do any of those things back then

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    Chi_archie
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    parents at the time i'm sure remember that period very well

    started in April by late October there were about 1,000 dead in the US

  22. #22
    trytrytry
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chi_archie View Post
    "yeah maybe not as contagious"

    Feb 8 0 us deaths
    Mar 8- 21 deaths
    April 8 - 14,768 deaths


    4 weeks ago- 1,267 cases
    3 weeks ago- 8,736 cases
    2 weeks ago- 65,273 cases
    1 week ago- 212,692 cases
    right now - 435,167 cases


    it amazes me that people are still playing checkers trying to project numbers from their recliner as if this is a NBA under 240 bet and thinking... ah its the first quarter and they scored under 55 points. This full game Under is on PACE to hit!!!!!
    clever analogy for a gambling forum.

  23. #23
    d2bets
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hman View Post
    What stands out to me is #5 and #10.

    Looking at #5 It appears the swine flu was more contagious by far.


    With the statistics in #8, could the deaths worldwide end up being close to the same??

    But why is it this time around the deaths are higher in the U.S.??
    Swine flu was NOT more contagious. Try to imagine how many would get covid-19 in one year without any effort at mitigation. More than 60 million. Way more.
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  24. #24
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    Charchie hitting it out of the park like a roided up Barry Bonds served 90 mph meatballs.

  25. #25
    Booya711
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chi_archie View Post
    I would say we were when kids got back to school and the virus starting circulating like crazy in Oct

    remember we had our first cases and deaths and April and since it was a FLU unlike covid. It went away mostly for the summer.

    what was the media going to do on July 15th

    "today there were 10 new cases of H1N1 in our country, and no deaths"

    it didn't become a problem until October and as the vaccine was rolled out, there was panic because we couldn't keep up with the demand.



    but here is the biggy.

    how many older people and parents were on twitter and facebook back then? how many people consumed news through their phone?

    I wasn't old, but I didn't do any of those things back then
    agreed...social media is a bigger shit show than Covid......since a vaccine is a ways out, how can we get away from being locked down?

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    Hman
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    Quote Originally Posted by d2bets View Post
    Swine flu was NOT more contagious. Try to imagine how many would get covid-19 in one year without any effort at mitigation. More than 60 million. Way more.

    60x more?

    Unlikely

    We just started taking it serious enough the last 30-45 days to SUPPOSEDLY practice social distancing (which most really aren't anyhow), and there are currently 'only' 1.5 million cases of Covid worldwide.

    Swine 60 million


    Doesn't really matter both are bad.

  27. #27
    Chi_archie
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    Quote Originally Posted by Booya711 View Post
    agreed...social media is a bigger shit show than Covid......since a vaccine is a ways out, how can we get away from being locked down?
    testing
    social tracing
    antibody testing- so we know who is already clear to go back to work and to participate in entertainment, bars, restaurants.

    I think Trump and Governors need to have the Balls to say as soon as we have a few days coming down off the peak.

    For real we can't let the cure be worse than sickness, get back to work.

    but the problem is: Political leaders only care about getting re-elected. So they are going to put their own electability over our countries economical misery. No one wants to be the first to open up and then see their deaths go back up and get crucified in the outrage social media victim culture.
    Nomination(s):
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    Chi_archie
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hman View Post
    60x more?

    Unlikely

    We just started taking it serious enough the last 30-45 days to SUPPOSEDLY practice social distancing (which most really aren't anyhow), and there are currently 'only' 1.5 million cases of Covid worldwide.

    Swine 60 million


    Doesn't really matter both are bad.
    here is an example of how social distancing does work

    Sweden is well known to be trying to let people still go about their daily lives. their neighbors Finland and Norway have about half the population and very very similar population densities. Finland and Norway got their first cases and deaths of Covid19 a few days before Sweden. They seem to be coming down off the peak and possibly right at the peak respectively. Sweden is still going up.

    here is how it looks today. How do you think it will look on March of 2021, assuming you start to process exponential growth

    new deaths
    Sweden 106
    Finland 2
    Norway 3

    total deaths
    Sweden 793
    Finland 42
    Norway 104

    total deaths per million
    Sweden 79
    Finland 8
    Norway 19

  29. #29
    Roger T. Bannon
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    Covid is new to the world. It is unknown to science as opposed to flu.

    The biggest problem with Covid-19 is that it is rooted in China. As a result, the global supply chains were disrupted and societies were quickly on the verge of collapse.

    The US stock market began to crater and likely would have collapsed if action was not taken. This could have potentially resulted in a change to the social order which is the primary risk of all pandemics.

    You make a mistake in thinking that all of these actions are being done to save lives. The lives are not important.

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    Sweden passing emergency coronavirus legislation. They know they screwed up

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    asiagambler
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger T. Bannon View Post
    Covid is new to the world. It is unknown to science as opposed to flu.

    The biggest problem with Covid-19 is that it is rooted in China. As a result, the global supply chains were disrupted and societies were quickly on the verge of collapse.

    The US stock market began to crater and likely would have collapsed if action was not taken. This could have potentially resulted in a change to the social order which is the primary risk of all pandemics.

    You make a mistake in thinking that all of these actions are being done to save lives. The lives are not important.
    Well I'd say the stock market is a key indicator in the level of people dying from an unknown virus

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    Roger T. Bannon
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    Quote Originally Posted by asiagambler View Post
    Well I'd say the stock market is a key indicator in the level of people dying from an unknown virus
    The stock market was forecasting a large economic downturn as a result of losses in China. It was not yet forecasting widespread economic losses in the US. When it began to realize this was going to engulf the United States, it became an ECONOMIC crisis. That is why all the money is going to bailouts. Capitalism ended. It has to be rebooted.

  33. #33
    d2bets
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hman View Post
    60x more?

    Unlikely

    We just started taking it serious enough the last 30-45 days to SUPPOSEDLY practice social distancing (which most really aren't anyhow), and there are currently 'only' 1.5 million cases of Covid worldwide.

    Swine 60 million


    Doesn't really matter both are bad.
    60 million over a ONE YEAR PERIOD, with no mitigation effort. Currently reflects that this didn't seriously start to spread until a couple months ago. Exponential growth, yo. covid-19 is more contagious than swine flu and it's not even close.
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  34. #34
    asiagambler
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    Lol nobody is being tested either. 1.5 million is a joke. More like 50 million

  35. #35
    Chi_archie
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    yes we need to the testing sped up to get us back to work

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