Not sure if I am understanding your numbers here. Your first set of numbers seem to be implying a 2.36% death rate. Is this correct?
But then in your 2nd statement... you are saying that they would ALL have to die if 4,238,115 people were infected... but... if 23.6% of 4,238,115 died that would be a million deaths not 100K.
And then you say for there to be 100K deaths you would need many more than 4,238,115. This is ONLY correct if the the death rate is LESS than 2.36%.
What is 2.36% of 4,238,115... it's 100K.
Let's make this real simple... let's say the death rate is only 1%. That would mean if 10 million people are infected(I think there is a VERY high chance of this before the end of the year) that would mean exactly 100K people would die. If the death rate is HIGHER(this could also happen) the death rate will be higher if 10 million people become infected.
I'm not trying to argue with your numbers... I'm just not sure you represented them very clearly. Tell me what I am missing here. Ask yourself this question... do you think 10 million people could become infected before the end of the year? What is 1% of 10 million? It's 100K.