Compared to previous years, flu deaths have gone down big time. There may be a lot of dying with coronavirus instead of because of coronavirus. Both get counted as coronavirus.
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Not true. 19/20 flu season was pretty average, slightly higher than last year actually. But virtually nobody gets the flu in April. It's seasonal. It's always November-February. So these April deaths are not the flu.Originally posted by raiders72001Comment -
That's the whole thing about "flattening the curve" that so many people don't realize. It's not about saving lives, it's about not overwhelming medical facilities with so many cases all at once.Originally posted by Rain Chains
Adding up the number of deaths caused by "flattening the curve" would tally the same amount of deaths if we didn't shut everything down. Sweden has more deaths now but they will peak sooner and the other countries will eventually have higher deaths than Sweden later on.
It also prolongs herd immunity. This is a very contagious disease, yes, but what's relevant here is that so many people get exposed to the disease that don't even have symptoms.Comment -
That's partly true. But it also buys time for antivirals, ramped up testing, contact tracing, etc so that we are in a better position to fight back in the fall than we were in March/April.Originally posted by QuantumLeapComment -
Originally posted by QuantumLeap
that is a theory that some espoused. but most experts are turning out to be way off in all sorts of projections. As aSBR posters, We are about 1% as smart as that. So nothing we say should be worth as much as a turd from some actual decent "expert" So I wouldn't listen to anything anyone here says really, and nobody should listen to watch I say. But we all like to typy typy with our fingers, so here goes.
what we do KNOW, is that Sweden's immediate neighbors Finland and Norway reached a peak death # about 8 and 9 days ago. They've come down pretty substantially every day. Down as much as 400% to 1000% now.
Sweden is growing and they are projected to almost triple their death total daily highs, in about 4 weeks. But more importantly they will have a severe shortage of Hospital beds and ICU beds.
I think the projections are pretty shit. But we can only go from data that we've already seen.Comment -
You'll never be president!! lol Boast a little.
The Sweden experiment (and that's what it is) might be right or wrong unless you're old.
Everywhere the oldest, who usually have underlying conditions pay the biggest price.
If I'm 20-40 I say "Lets go the Sweden way" if I'm 60-80 not so much.
Originally posted by Chi_archieComment -
Correct. The "experts" were saying we would stress the medical system if we didn't flatten the curve. Well the numbers are way below the need for respirators, added hospital beds and added medical supplies. This is so much so that it can't be explained away simply because we flattened the curve.Originally posted by Chi_archie
It's difficult to compare countries, even ones that are close to each other. While Finland and Norway have low numbers, Ireland has similar numbers to Sweden (as far as deaths per million) and they shut down a lot of their country while Sweden didn't. Their cases per million is double that of Sweden's.Comment -
I'm wondering just how seasonal this thing is. You mentioned no one gets the flu in April yet we are still getting significant numbers of coronavirus in April. Will it get significantly less in the summer?Originally posted by d2betsComment -
We basically are not far enough along to find any common denominators. There is way more unknowns than solid facts.
Theories, conjecture and hope is all we have at the moment.Comment -
Ireland has tested 3X more people than Sweden, that reflects the case difference.Originally posted by QuantumLeapComment -
=======Originally posted by Chi_archie
Unfortunate, but apparently true.
Updating data from several countries,
listed by deaths per million population
3.0.....Japan (tough mitigation measures, early)
4.0.....NewZealand (virtual total lockdown, early)
4.8.....S. Korea (MASSIVE testing & quarantines; masks)
17.0...Poland (tough mitigation measures, early)
37.0...Finland (tough mitigation measures, early)
38.3...Norway (tough mitigation measures, early)
64.0...Austria (tough mitigation measures, early)
76.0...Denmark (tough mitigation measures, early)
76.0...Germany (tough mitigation measures, early)
83.0...CANADA (tough mitigation measures, early by Provinces)
183... USA (late response by Federal gov't; mitigation by States)
244...SWEDEN (Dem-Socialist gov't recommendations, but no lockdown)
385... UK (high int'l tourism; gov't admits they acted far too late!)Comment -
But the deaths are still the same. Are you saying Sweden isn't testing people for coronavirus as being a cause of death?Originally posted by Mike HuntertzComment -
I say open the flood gates and let the people get their COVID 19 Russian Roulette style.....
Only the stupid naysayers will die.......
Now I don't care who you are as that'd be a great start........
We the good guys are confident in our social distancing skills...........
Knock on wood if you're with me!Comment -
It is not looking real good. They have been looking at this virus for three months now and know no more than when they started. They are actually becoming more confused.Originally posted by QuantumLeap
The projection of deaths was dialed down from 200,000 to 74,000 and now looking more like 200,000 again.
Now they are floating this drug that just last week saw no benefit.Comment -
Experiment? Illegal in the swedish constitution to lockdown the nation.Originally posted by Mike HuntertzComment -
Originally posted by Roger T. Bannon
I believe IHME dialed them down to 64k then 68k and now 74k
they update every 3-5 days
I would expect them to go up into the 80's by next week.
an issue is that our overall death #'s are staying in the same relatively same area. Example
May 22- 2341 Deaths & 661 NY deaths
May 29- 2390 Deaths & 330 NY deaths
So we are increasing in other areas around the country. As our total numbers even go down, due to NY finally getting under control, Other areas will be increasing rapidly, and it will go under the radar due to the overall #'s decreasing.Comment -
Impossible to say. I think most people think these are the total deaths that are going to take place from this virus. Not sure exactly what the numbers are estimating at this point. The fall is going to be a real interesting time for many reasons.Originally posted by Chi_archieComment -
Yeah those projections are only for up to Aug 4
Yes the fall could be shitty when the new flu season startsComment -
Especially since we are going back to the position of last month which is the virus can go F itself. People have decided it is going away and they may get by until the fall but everything is setting up for worst case. Every single thing is being mismanaged.Originally posted by Chi_archieComment -
If shit hits the fan in the fall, I think half of the people are not going to follow along with the distancing program. And with the election pending too, it's going to be quite the spectacle. I want to avoid covid so that I can be around to see this shit. What a time to be alive. Season 4 of Trumperica is a doozy.Originally posted by Roger T. BannonComment -
Last hour (of the month) is going to be really interesting here. Let's see if we take out the earlier lows. Then a lot of support around 2870ish. If that's taken out tomorrow, then it'll be 2,800 in a hurry.Comment -
Not saying this is good or bad. Just putting this out there:
The WHO officially endorsed the approach taken by Sweden, the latest flip flop from an organization that has done more than its fair share to confuse people with guidance that's constantly changing.
The WHO initially opposed, then embraced lockdowns, and now it's apparently back to opposing them again. Unlike other European states like Italy, Sweden implemented swift and early testing regimes to weed out infected patients. This allowed it to avoid lockdowns and border closures, relying instead on social distancing guidance. The country never closed its schools, and although mortality rates have been markedly higher than its neighbors, the virus never overwhelmed its hospital system. The Swedish government's approach is widely popular within Sweden.
The director of the WHO's health emergencies program said the notion that Sweden hadn't done much to combat the virus is simply not true.
Sweden has put in place a "very strong public health policy", said Dr. Mike Ryan. Unlike many other countries, Sweden chose to rely on its "relationship with its citizenry" and trust them to self-regulate. Its healthcare system has not been overwhelmed, he said, adding that its approach could be a "model" for other countries when lockdowns begin to relax. "There are lessons to be learnt by our colleagues in Sweden."Comment -
Yes, the fall is stacking up as a real cliff hanger. You have the possibility here of opening up actually looking like it is going to work and then it comes back big time when they have decided it was no risk after all.Originally posted by d2bets
And then you have the election, Trump could go crazy and become FDR with 20% unemployment.
I don't think social distancing is going to be much of a problem if it comes back in fall because people are going to freak out. I think eventually we are probably going to do the Swedish thing and take our chances and lock away people at risk but a long way to get there right now.Comment -
The whole process hinges on the assumption you'll acquire immunity once infected. Half of the deaths are in rest homes much like a lot of countries. I'm hoping it works.
Originally posted by QuantumLeapNot saying this is good or bad. Just putting this out there:
The WHO officially endorsed the approach taken by Sweden, the latest flip flop from an organization that has done more than its fair share to confuse people with guidance that's constantly changing.
The WHO initially opposed, then embraced lockdowns, and now it's apparently back to opposing them again. Unlike other European states like Italy, Sweden implemented swift and early testing regimes to weed out infected patients. This allowed it to avoid lockdowns and border closures, relying instead on social distancing guidance. The country never closed its schools, and although mortality rates have been markedly higher than its neighbors, the virus never overwhelmed its hospital system. The Swedish government's approach is widely popular within Sweden.
The director of the WHO's health emergencies program said the notion that Sweden hadn't done much to combat the virus is simply not true.
Sweden has put in place a "very strong public health policy", said Dr. Mike Ryan. Unlike many other countries, Sweden chose to rely on its "relationship with its citizenry" and trust them to self-regulate. Its healthcare system has not been overwhelmed, he said, adding that its approach could be a "model" for other countries when lockdowns begin to relax. "There are lessons to be learnt by our colleagues in Sweden."Comment -
Not being a smartass here, but can anyone name viruses we have not developed an immunity to and whether it's common to NOT develop immunity?Comment -
AIDS, also the flu. It mutates constantly and vaccines are iffy. They have to guess the strain ahead of time.
Originally posted by teeceeComment -
So, in theory, we should expect to develop an immunity regarding COVID-19.Originally posted by Mike HuntertzComment -
Hopeful but no factual evidence yet. COVid is somewhat stable so far and that is a very good thing. We'll have a better idea when round two hits. It is way too early to make positive facts.
Originally posted by teeceeComment -
The cold is the biggie. They are very concerned by how similar this is to the cold virus. Best case scenario is basically flu which a shot does not work for unless you have the right strain and does not last over time. This spreads like cold so if it is potentially as untreatable.Originally posted by teeceeComment -
Yes, but I believe totally understandable.Not saying this is good or bad. Just putting this out there:
The WHO initially opposed, then embraced lockdowns,
and now it's apparently back to opposing them again.
Inititally not much was known about this particular virus. Data was limited.
I prefer health guidelines to err on the side of caution.
Now, with much more data available they have revised their recommendations.
I don't see an issue with this rationale.
It's like "instant replay" in sports. Calls are reversed upon further review.
Democratic-Socialism in action!Unlike other European states like Italy, Sweden implemented early testing to weed out infected patients. This allowed it to avoid lockdowns and border closures, relying instead on social distancing guidance. The country never closed its schools, and although mortality rates have been markedly higher than its neighbors, the virus never overwhelmed its hospital system. The director of the WHO's health emergencies program said the notion that Sweden hadn't done much to combat the virus is simply not true. Sweden has put in place a "very strong public health policy", said Dr. Mike Ryan. Unlike many other countries, Sweden chose to rely on its "relationship with its citizenry" and trust them to self-regulate. Its healthcare system has not been overwhelmed, he said, adding that its approach could be a "model" for other countries when lockdowns begin to relax. "There are lessons to be learnt by our colleagues in Sweden."
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As I see it, there is no 14 day drop in cases anywhere. The numbers are still going up.
Phase One is now being dramatically abridged. There is no reason to assume that things will improve?
I hope this turns out better than what logic appears to indicate.Comment -
States by Number of Days of Decreasing Numbers
Click any table header to sort
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States are pissing all over the White guidelines
Fuk the first one!!!!!Comment -
Really.Originally posted by Chi_archie
Trump had no idea what his guidelines actually said. They just made it in a nice big font with blue coloring so he approved it.
I thought the guidelines were good. Too bad nobody is trying to follow them.Comment -
One of the addendums to the Swedish model is to set up tightened procedures for nursing homes; Reduce visitors.Originally posted by Mike HuntertzComment
