Corona...the math!

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  • Big Bear
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 11-01-11
    • 43253

    #106
    can we get an updated graph
    Comment
    • Mike Huntertz
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 08-19-09
      • 11240

      #107
      The rate of increase is what to look for.

      2+ weeks ago 10 cases a day

      1+ week ago 100 cases a day
      2+ days ago 1000 cases a day
      March 17th 1750 cases a day
      March 18th 2850 cases a day.
      March 19th 4500+ cases a day.(posted 5000+ but it was changed)
      March 20th 5600 cases

      A slight flattening but only a day, still better than a doubling.

      Comment
      • Big Bear
        SBR Aristocracy
        • 11-01-11
        • 43253

        #108
        Originally posted by Mike Huntertz
        The rate of increase is what to look for.

        2+ weeks ago 10 cases a day

        1+ week ago 100 cases a day
        2+ days ago 1000 cases a day
        March 17th 1750 cases a day
        March 18th 2850 cases a day.
        March 19th 4500+ cases a day.(posted 5000+ but it was changed)
        March 20th 5600 cases

        A slight flattening but only a day, still better than a doubling.

        wozers

        so we are all fukked?
        Comment
        • Mike Huntertz
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 08-19-09
          • 11240

          #109
          A lot of people are going to be impacted for a very long time.
          The vast majority will survive, albeit in a very different world.

          Stay safe!


          Originally posted by Big Bear
          wozers

          so we are all fukked?
          Comment
          • Chi_archie
            SBR Aristocracy
            • 07-22-08
            • 63182

            #110
            Originally posted by Mike Huntertz
            A lot of people are going to be impacted for a very long time.
            The vast majority will survive, albeit in a very different world.

            Stay safe!
            long term we will have better health care system and preparedness.

            the system of crony fake capitalism health care will be burnt down and rebuilt
            Comment
            • Roger T. Bannon
              SBR Hall of Famer
              • 06-28-18
              • 5144

              #111
              Originally posted by Chi_archie
              long term we will have better health care system and preparedness.

              the system of crony fake capitalism health care will be burnt down and rebuilt
              Not likely. Everything is getting bailed out. Rinse and repeat. You can only have a better system if you correct the mistakes.
              Comment
              • Mike Huntertz
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 08-19-09
                • 11240

                #112
                The rate of increase is what to look for.

                2+ weeks ago 10 cases a day

                1+ week ago 100 cases a day
                2+ days ago 1000 cases a day
                March 17th 1750 cases a day
                March 18th 2850 cases a day.
                March 19th 4500+ cases a day.(posted 5000+ but it was changed)
                March 20th 5600 cases

                March 21st 4800+ cases.

                I sure hope this continues, not a trend yet but the best news we could hope for.
                With increased testing the numbers should have been up, I have guarded optimism......for the first time since this has started.

                Stay safe!




                Comment
                • Jayvegas420
                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                  • 03-09-11
                  • 28229

                  #113
                  Originally posted by Roger T. Bannon
                  Not likely. Everything is getting bailed out. Rinse and repeat. You can only have a better system if you correct the mistakes.
                  Comment
                  • homie1975
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 12-24-13
                    • 15289

                    #114
                    Jumped over 14K cases today. Curve steepening
                    Comment
                    • Mr KLC
                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                      • 12-19-07
                      • 31100

                      #115
                      Comment
                      • Bluehorseshoe
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 07-13-06
                        • 15054

                        #116
                        Originally posted by Mr KLC
                        Comment
                        • Mike Huntertz
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 08-19-09
                          • 11240

                          #117
                          Outcome of Cases (Recovery or Death) in the United States

























                          Percent (%)


























































                          Mar 07 Death Rate: 55.88%
                          Comment
                          • Plaza23
                            SBR Hall of Famer
                            • 12-29-13
                            • 7392

                            #118
                            Originally posted by homie1975
                            Jumped over 14K cases today. Curve steepening
                            You gotta track deaths. Not cases. Cases are going up because more people are being tested.

                            When case rates are rising far faster than the death rate, then statistically people will begin to see this is not that much more serious than the average flu.

                            The best thing that could happen to the US is show that 500,000 people have it and less than a 1,000 will have died. That will show the response to this is asinine.
                            Comment
                            • Mike Huntertz
                              SBR Posting Legend
                              • 08-19-09
                              • 11240

                              #119
                              The average flu(a corona virus) has a mortality rate of 0.1%. So far this virus has a rate of 1.4% death rate.
                              As this is, The Math about Corona thread......that makes it 14X more dangerous!
                              California predicts a 60% infection rate........you can do the math from here.

                              Stay Safe.

                              Originally posted by Plaza23
                              You gotta track deaths. Not cases. Cases are going up because more people are being tested.

                              When case rates are rising far faster than the death rate, then statistically people will begin to see this is not that much more serious than the average flu.

                              The best thing that could happen to the US is show that 500,000 people have it and less than a 1,000 will have died. That will show the response to this is asinine.
                              Comment
                              • ace7550
                                SBR MVP
                                • 05-08-15
                                • 3729

                                #120
                                1.4% of 24,000,000 people is 336,000. That is a pretty goddamn big number of dead people.
                                Comment
                                • lakerboy
                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                  • 04-02-09
                                  • 94463

                                  #121
                                  Originally posted by Plaza23
                                  You gotta track deaths. Not cases. Cases are going up because more people are being tested.

                                  When case rates are rising far faster than the death rate, then statistically people will begin to see this is not that much more serious than the average flu.

                                  The best thing that could happen to the US is show that 500,000 people have it and less than a 1,000 will have died. That will show the response to this is asinine.
                                  You one of those guys? So let's let everyone roam about and get everyone sick. No big deal if 1-2%of everyone dies.
                                  Comment
                                  • keely85
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 01-04-15
                                    • 4296

                                    #122
                                    Saw a 12 year old is on life support and had no pre existing conditions.

                                    But sure only old people.
                                    Comment
                                    • RudyRuetigger
                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                      • 08-24-10
                                      • 65107

                                      #123
                                      Originally posted by keely85
                                      Saw a 12 year old is on life support and had no pre existing conditions.

                                      But sure only old people.
                                      In georgia too

                                      I'm freakin out man
                                      Comment
                                      • asiagambler
                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                        • 07-23-17
                                        • 6827

                                        #124
                                        Lot of people not taking this seriously. That is the biggest problem
                                        Comment
                                        • Mike Huntertz
                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                          • 08-19-09
                                          • 11240

                                          #125
                                          The rate of increase is what to look for.

                                          March 3rd 10 cases a day

                                          1+ week ago 100 cases a day
                                          2+ days ago 1000 cases a day
                                          March 17th 1750 cases a day
                                          March 18th 2850 cases a day.
                                          March 19th 4500+ cases a day.(posted 5000+ but it was changed)
                                          March 20th 5600 cases

                                          March 21st 4800+ cases.

                                          March 22nd 9339 cases!!!


                                          As you can tell this is not good news, exponential again!!!!
                                          Please, stay safe!!


                                          Comment
                                          • QuantumLeap
                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                            • 08-22-08
                                            • 6896

                                            #126
                                            Originally posted by Plaza23
                                            You gotta track deaths. Not cases. Cases are going up because more people are being tested.

                                            When case rates are rising far faster than the death rate, then statistically people will begin to see this is not that much more serious than the average flu.

                                            The best thing that could happen to the US is show that 500,000 people have it and less than a 1,000 will have died. That will show the response to this is asinine.
                                            Agreed:

                                            March 17th: 23 new deaths
                                            March 18th: 41 new deaths
                                            March 19th: 57 new deaths
                                            March 20th: 49 new deaths

                                            March 21st: 46 new deaths
                                            March 22nd: 117 new deaths
                                            Comment
                                            • QuantumLeap
                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                              • 08-22-08
                                              • 6896

                                              #127
                                              Originally posted by Mike Huntertz
                                              The rate of increase is what to look for.

                                              March 3rd 10 cases a day

                                              1+ week ago 100 cases a day
                                              2+ days ago 1000 cases a day
                                              March 17th 1750 cases a day
                                              March 18th 2850 cases a day.
                                              March 19th 4500+ cases a day.(posted 5000+ but it was changed)
                                              March 20th 5600 cases

                                              March 21st 4800+ cases.

                                              March 22nd 9339 cases!!!


                                              As you can tell this is not good news, exponential again!!!!
                                              Please, stay safe!!


                                              It's like you say, the numbers change. I've noticed they keep changing throughout the day. It's hard to tell what is up to date and which ones will be changed later.
                                              Comment
                                              • Fishhead
                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                • 08-11-05
                                                • 40184

                                                #128
                                                THOUSANDS by month's end

                                                This is BRUTAL
                                                Comment
                                                • homie1975
                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                  • 12-24-13
                                                  • 15289

                                                  #129
                                                  FLU DEATH RATE IN USA 0.1%

                                                  COVID-19 DEATH RATE AT MINIMUM 1.5%

                                                  1.5% is FIFTEEN TIMES HIGHER than 0.1%


                                                  the numbers DO NOT LIE
                                                  Comment
                                                  • homie1975
                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                    • 12-24-13
                                                    • 15289

                                                    #130
                                                    40MM californians

                                                    let's say 40% get it, that is 16MM people.

                                                    1.5% of 16MM is 240,000

                                                    can you imagine 240,000 deaths in ONE STATE (please no jokes about how 240K californians dying would be a good thing)
                                                    Comment
                                                    • pilebuck13
                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                      • 05-15-15
                                                      • 17920

                                                      #131
                                                      I recommend everyone has 2 simple items a pulse oximeter which essentially you slip on your finger and it tells you your bodies oxygen level and a thermometer..... if you are severe and need medical assistance your fever will be dangerously high or your oxygen levels will be so low you need oxygen to breath....the oximeters are still available I just bought one today at rite aid if both these are normal the hospital will do nothing for you...and you just stay home and continue to monitor your oxygen levels the people dying lose oxygen plain and simple this is what you need to watch.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • homie1975
                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                        • 12-24-13
                                                        • 15289

                                                        #132
                                                        New York State population = approx 19.5MM

                                                        death rate .008875% (150 deaths out of 16,900 Cases)

                                                        if 40% of New Yorkers got COVID-19, that is 7.8MM people

                                                        Total deaths would be 69,225

                                                        again, the numbers don't lie. WAY MORE deaths in ONE STATE from COVID-19 than Total FLU DEATHS in the USA in the worst flu seasons
                                                        Comment
                                                        • pilebuck13
                                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                                          • 05-15-15
                                                          • 17920

                                                          #133
                                                          Homie we just hangout until a tested cure is found. Some of the smartest people in the world working on this. And On top of that the first company that gets it will be so fukin rich man. Race for the cure and cash. Btw buy a pulse oximeter while you still can.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • lakerboy
                                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                                            • 04-02-09
                                                            • 94463

                                                            #134
                                                            Homie make it a bit bigger bro. I can't see it
                                                            Comment
                                                            • goduke
                                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                                              • 02-17-10
                                                              • 11668

                                                              #135
                                                              Originally posted by Plaza23
                                                              You gotta track deaths. Not cases. Cases are going up because more people are being tested.

                                                              When case rates are rising far faster than the death rate, then statistically people will begin to see this is not that much more serious than the average flu.

                                                              The best thing that could happen to the US is show that 500,000 people have it and less than a 1,000 will have died. That will show the response to this is asinine.
                                                              2900 died on 9-11. Was the reaction asinine there too because you think it’s not enough deaths?
                                                              How about this. There are 32,000 people that have gotten this illness out of roughly 254k tested which is 12.5 percent. Of the ones infected about 1.3 percent die. You do realize exponentially over the 327 million people in the US that’s over 4 million deaths right? Is that worth a reaction of this magnitude? How many people have to die for you to be ok with this?
                                                              Comment
                                                              • pilebuck13
                                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                                • 05-15-15
                                                                • 17920

                                                                #136
                                                                Originally posted by lakerboy
                                                                Homie make it a bit bigger bro. I can't see it
                                                                Laker....this virus Fukin w my money don’t like it man although I can still return to work and make 3 k a week I’ll stay home I’m giving it another week man be safe bro
                                                                Comment
                                                                • lakerboy
                                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                                  • 04-02-09
                                                                  • 94463

                                                                  #137
                                                                  Originally posted by pilebuck13
                                                                  Laker....this virus Fukin w my money don’t like it man although I can still return to work and make 3 k a week I’ll stay home I’m giving it another week man be safe bro
                                                                  I agree. Good luck bro. Hopefully we get through this
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • pilebuck13
                                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                                    • 05-15-15
                                                                    • 17920

                                                                    #138
                                                                    Originally posted by lakerboy
                                                                    I agree. Good luck bro. Hopefully we get through this
                                                                    Laker you will be ok man stop at rite aid get a pulse oximeter while you still can this one tool will tell you if you need to be in the hospital or not
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Plaza23
                                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                      • 12-29-13
                                                                      • 7392

                                                                      #139
                                                                      Originally posted by Mike Huntertz
                                                                      The average flu(a corona virus) has a mortality rate of 0.1%. So far this virus has a rate of 1.4% death rate.
                                                                      As this is, The Math about Corona thread......that makes it 14X more dangerous!
                                                                      California predicts a 60% infection rate........you can do the math from here.

                                                                      Stay Safe.
                                                                      Again, the death rate is going to plunge once there are more positive infection tests and a leveling off of deaths. The death rate only looks high now because most of the people getting tested and found to have had it were already seriously sick. No one ever tested everyone who had it, was asymptamatic, and got over it.

                                                                      You can't say the death rate is 1.4% when there are probably millions who have had it, never got tested, and recovered.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • Plaza23
                                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                        • 12-29-13
                                                                        • 7392

                                                                        #140
                                                                        Originally posted by lakerboy
                                                                        You one of those guys? So let's let everyone roam about and get everyone sick. No big deal if 1-2%of everyone dies.
                                                                        Yes, because the actual death rate is going to end up not that higher than the average flu. It's math. If this were a true pandemic, there'd be far more than 3,000 dead chinese since this has been around for 3 months. The facts are probably millions of people already have it, or have had it, and they recovered and never were tested. Look at all the famous people that have contracted it.

                                                                        And since when does 40% of a population contract a flu. You people are fn retarded

                                                                        The US will put up with this for about 2 weeks. After that, unless there are 10,000 deaths here, people going to say this is stupid we going back to work
                                                                        Comment
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