[KVB]

…Will see what happens but all you are doing now is a 50% guess AKA as coin flip.

Let’s look at this a little closer. We’ve already gone over the line movement; Stanford was triggered in the KVB NCAAF UPSET Basket.

This strategy was tracked last year to the tune of +2.5 units over 126 plays. But what I want to look at is the performance against the closer. Last season, the UPSET Basket beat the closing line by an average of 15 cents and had a win/loss record of 88-35-3 against the closing the line.



Here's the Unit chart for last year's UPSET Basket campaign...



At any point on the line is the avg vs the closing line up to that point in the season. The drop off at the end was the result of the final play of 2018 where the Southern -110 closed at +175. I only tracked last year so I don’t want to put a chart back further but will say that it’s where we expect it, for the most part.

Here’s the current UPSET Basket plays this week, with links to the original plays, and the current market price at Pinny, with the last two from 5D (according to SBR odds)…

		NCAAF UPSET Basket	Current
			Line
317	7-Sep	SYRACUSE +115	104
343	7-Sep	ARKANSAS ST +115	102
355		N TEXAS +160	146
357		BYU +145	139
385	7-Sep	STANFORD +135	100
401	7-Sep	KENNESAW ST -110	-105
409	7-Sep	S ILLINOIS +145	145

This week Stanford +3.5 also qualified with another strategy, the KVB NCAAF Visiting Dog Fund. That Fund was +18.73 over 83 plays with a record of 52-30-1 ATS last year and beat the close by more than half a point on the spread…



Here are the Units from the Visiting Dog Fund from last year...



But what of the BYU +6.5 play?

That BYU Play was triggered in the KVB NCAAF ATS/ML Fund, yet another strategy. Last year that Fund was +13.01 units over 87 plays with a 52-33-2 record ATS, beating the close by less than half a point…



Here's the Units chart for that Fund...



So are we really flipping a coin here? I plan to continue the running averages to add to the sample size as we move forward through season to give as a better picture of what’s happening.

It’s certainly the case for something a little more than a coin flip as there has been success through the years, but we’ll just have to take each season as they come.

These are forecast based and when I ask in the post above “how will you know if the adjustment has gone in your favor?” I don’t discount some subjective talent, but it sure helps to have a reliable forecast when trying to play the market.

In the end, Rudy is right, they are ahead of us, despite the case I make for reliability with these charts above.

[KVB]

Could? They're losing those last three for sure... Stanford and BYU are the only winnable two imo.

That's what I'm thinking, get past those (by USC losing to them) and we have some equity in the open parlay...

Stanford outmatched and USC on the route.

[Otters27]

USC guys ran right through them

[Mac4Lyfe]

Nice win last night. They might make an epic run here...

[KVB]

BYU looks like a decent play here.

It didn't trigger in any Funds being tracked at SBR, but I like going against USC here.

They looked like a good overall team last time, and steamrolled Stanford.

Let's see what happens, rooting for BYU here.

[gojetsgomoxies]

Nice win last night. They might make an epic run here...

i'm wondering if backup freshman QB lessens the pressure (JT Daniel sp?, was a #1 overall qb recruit) and players feel like they all need to play better now...

again, hindsight comment as i would not have tailed USC with a backup freshman QB

[The General]

Fuk

[jtoler]

usc bad coaching on both sides of ball so conservative in crunch time running so much on defense holes all over the field as usual look like they play nothing but zone

[Mac4Lyfe]

usc bad coaching on both sides of ball so conservative in crunch time running so much on defense holes all over the field as usual look like they play nothing but zone

Tough loss... That might have been a schedule loss. Still tough sledding ahead.