Monday Plays?? On Fire Here

[jjgold]

[pablo222]

You are on fire, JJ. I don't have the time to cape this time of year.
Should I tail your picks today?

[jjgold]

no

fade them actually law of averages

[funnyb25]

In the red here. Fire I guess is correct.

[KVB]

Picked up an OVER so far for the Fund, 9.5 at a price isn't bad...

The KVB MLB Contrarian Fund has picked up...

953

15-Jul

CIN/CHC OVER 10 (-105)

Have some 9.5 here but that line moved quick...

[hubie69]

Got some 1st 5's today, for all to enjoy!

NYY 1st5 -145
CWS 1st5 -125

Honorable mention, I won't be on it though:
COL 1st5 -193 (Far too expensive here, NOT a good spot but numbers like COL, if the price were lower)
PIT 1st5 +123 (Delta in my numbers isn't large enough, but indicates there could be value here)

[2daBank]

Got some 1st 5's today, for all to enjoy!

NYY 1st5 -145
CWS 1st5 -125

Honorable mention, I won't be on it though:
COL 1st5 -193 (Far too expensive here, NOT a good spot but numbers like COL, if the price were lower)
PIT 1st5 +123 (Delta in my numbers isn't large enough, but indicates there could be value here)

How come you don’t lay the -.5 instead of juice on these Hubie? I love ff’s but I almost never play the ml if I’m on the fav (dog I do). Fukk a push is way I see it, long haul I’d think you would find the better price would make up for the few you lose instead of push. Just curious.

Gl today

[hubie69]

How come you don’t lay the -.5 instead of juice on these Hubie? I love ff’s but I almost never play the ml if I’m on the fav (dog I do). Fukk a push is way I see it, long haul I’d think you would find the better price would make up for the few you lose instead of push. Just curious.

Gl today

I do occasionally lay the -.5, typically early in the season. The later we get into the season and specifically after the all-star break the markets tend to become more efficient and my numbers produce less value. The Push there keeps some of that value, at least adds perceived value (sure it's built into the price but still). As My numbers become less efficient it's nice to have the push available.

Oddly enough, CFB is the same way. My numbers are really good to start the year and by week 7/8 the markets start adjusting. Not specifically to my numbers, but to something and the markets tighten up.

[JIBBBY]

Atta boy JJ. Now that's what I'm talking about..

[JIBBBY]

In the early game I'm taking the UNDER 13 runs in this Giants/Rockies match up..

Both these pitchers are decent and should keep it together on the mound today and just maybe the bats will be a little cold with the early start time.. 13 runs is alot in this game with these 2 pitchers.

https://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/san-francisco-giants-colorado-rockies-390715227/

[jjgold]

[hubie69]

How's the band coming? Is it easier now with a members only jacket?

[Otters27]

Nice JJ 7-1

[KVB]

Added a couple of Contrarian moneylines...

The KVB MLB Contrarian Fund has added...

956	15-Jul	MIL -106
968		KC +111

...

[2daBank]

Had to play reds at +134. Nasher already has a thread about so not gonna get anymore into, read his thread. Ff under 5 also.

Tampa/yanks ff under 5 and fg under 9

That it so far., tried to talk myself into phillies w lad coming off the extra inning nightcap but Kershaw on extra rest very good and Eflin has allowed a horrendous ops to lefties. Can’t do it.

[pilebuck13]

Have to take a strong look at Milwaukee and over in reds cubs for contraire plays.

[2daBank]

Have to take a strong look at Milwaukee and over in reds cubs for contraire plays.

Is the over really contrarian? Both been scoring a bunch since the break and the wind blowing out hard. Still a big number for 2 pretty solid pitchers. I think they can hold the offenses down for 5 at least. Castillo should have advantage, not only his k rate but also 2 to 1 gb/fb where Kendrick’s is much closer to even..

[pilebuck13]

Is the over really contrarian? Both been scoring a bunch since the break and the wind blowing out hard. Still a big number for 2 pretty solid pitchers. I think they can hold the offenses down for 5 at least. Castillo should have advantage, not only his k rate but also 2 to 1 gb/fb where Kendrick’s is much closer to even..

Mmmmm just seem 10.5 jump not liking it so much laying off more then likely but I do like the brewers today....I always get little nervous fading the braves though they can be just nasty

[2daBank]

Mmmmm just seem 10.5 jump not liking it so much laying off more then likely but I do like the brewers today....I always get little nervous fading the braves though they can be just nasty

I havnt had much of a feel for milw either way in some time. Couldn’t even tell ya the last time I bet one of their games. I honestly have no idea, havnt really seen the pitcher they have going either, your guess prob better than mine. Gl buddy

[KVB]

Is the over really contrarian? Both been scoring a bunch since the break and the wind blowing out hard. Still a big number for 2 pretty solid pitchers. I think they can hold the offenses down for 5 at least. Castillo should have advantage, not only his k rate but also 2 to 1 gb/fb where Kendrick’s is much closer to even..

There are many different qualifications for contrarian. It's not just about tickets and money, it can be about the difference between the two.

When it comes to CIN/CHC information shows the tickets to be higher on the UNDER side, but the money to be coming in on the OVER. The discrepancy makes an impact in the contrarian look.

Also, the markets are reacting to that OVER money and like Piler said it's moved to 10.5. The contrarian fund recognized this in time as we started to see early trades in the market that were showing as, because the tickets are on the UNDER, reverse line movement.

These factors have an impact in the overall contrarian analysis. It pushes the forecast OVER just enough. Glad I have 10.

I do like that wind, it helps, and the pitchers and the high number could be why we are seeing tickets on the UNDER.

[KVB]

Picked up a Contrarian Runline...

The KVB MLB Contrarian RL Fund has picked up...

956

15-Jul

MIL +1.5 (-160)

...

[jjgold]

Lol KVB

Thanks men !

[2daBank]

Cash the 1st 5 under in the Bronx. Just need these pitchers in Chicago to hold up for 6 more outs each! So far so good.

[2daBank]

Cash the ff under in Chicago. Got tight there at the end but worked out. Ok now cincy can start scoring for ya’ll to hit gm over and more importantly cash my reds bet! Lol

[jjgold]

We’re all fighting for women and wins

[2daBank]

Can’t belueve I pushed full gm under in Bronx thanks to some bum ass Tampa catcher hitting 3 bombs including a 3 run jack w 2 strikes and 2 outs in 9th off Chapman. That blows.

[2daBank]

Cash the reds.. so far the asb hasn’t slowed me down like it has in years past!!

[KVB]

Lost nearly two units between the Funds on Mon...

With such a big slate tonight, that journey back to -20 before a market turn is possible. Yikes.

Here's the KVB MLB Contrarian Fund after Mon, through 406 plays...

953	15-Jul	CIN/CHC OVER 10 (-105)	-1
956		MIL -106	-1
968		KC +111	1.11
		Mon	-0.89
		Weeks 1-5	-1.32
		Weeks 6-10	-1.23
		Weeks 11-15	-4.9
		Week 16	-2.69
		Total	-11.03

Here's the KVB MLB Contrarian RL Fund after Mon, through 65 plays...

956	15-Jul	MIL +1.5 (-160)	-1
		Week 17	-1
		Weeks 1-5	-4.92
		Weeks 6-10	-4.59
		Weeks 11-15	4.86
		Week 16	-1
		Total	-7.65

There's been a small retreat there, but there haven't been many plays...

[2daBank]

I was really rooting for you to get the cincy over once I cashed the 1st 5 under. For cincy to score of course! Lol.