In which league does being the favorite mean the LEAST?

[fearless]

I used to think it was MLB with all the crazy stuff that happens in baseball but the NFL might be worse! I'm not sure.

[ZeRo C@iDa*]

ha... now this is a interesting thread!!!!
I'v never looked at it this way....

[LLXC]

MLB, NHL more than NBA and NFL

[fearless]

ha... now this is a interesting thread!!!!
I'v never looked at it this way....

I don't know what the is for?

[HedgeHog]

Bookmakers do a pretty good at setting the money line on games, regardless of the sport. So I would think that a -300 fav in Baseball would have roughly the same chance of losing as a -300 fav in NFL, NBA or NHL (about 25%). Forced to pick one, I'd take the NHL as it has the least scoring and a hot goalie can beat the best of teams in any given game.

[swifty]

ML is the weak line, I hate playing those in Baseball, Hockey

[fearless]

Bookmakers do a pretty good at setting the money line on games, regardless of the sport. So I would think that a -300 fav in Baseball would have roughly the same chance of losing as a -300 fav in NFL, NBA or NHL (about 25%). Forced to pick one, I'd take the NHL as it has the least scoring and a hot goalie can beat the best of teams in any given game.

That's BS sometimes. Tennessee just went up 10-0 on New Orleans (a -230 favorite at BetCris), sometimes a favorite like that has virtually no chance. Sometimes the LVSC lines are based 100% on PAST performance and they have LITTLE or NOTHING to do with FUTURE performance!

[HedgeHog]

That's BS sometimes. Tennessee just went up 10-0 on New Orleans (a -230 favorite at BetCris), sometimes a favorite like that has virtually no chance. Sometimes the LVSC lines are based 100% on PAST performance and they have LITTLE or NOTHING to do with FUTURE performance!

Didn't know Tenn was a ML lock; wish I knew a few hours ago. I'm just saying Vegas usually gets it right. Yesterday, I think there were 7 favorites of 4.5 or higher and 6 won outright (GB only big upset).

[LT Profits]

MLB, and its not even close. Since 1985, MLB favorites of any price have only won around 58% of the time. NFL is around 66% SU, NBA is around 70%, CFB and CBB are both around 75% and NHL is roughly 63%.

[ZeRo C@iDa*]

I don't know what the is for?

sorry rainbow... I was feel'N that smiley at the time

[fearless]

sorry rainbow... I was feel'N that smiley at the time

No problems.

[fearless]

Didn't know Tenn was a ML lock

That might have been the case, I don't know. However, it's a good example of a team being a nice favorite based purely on past performance with that having no correlation with the future. That happens all the time.

[fearless]

MLB, and its not even close. Since 1985, MLB favorites of any price have only won around 58% of the time. NFL is around 66% SU, NBA is around 70%, CFB and CBB are both around 75% and NHL is roughly 63%.

There's no doubt about it, thanks a lot.

[onlooker]

MLB hands down. Then maybe NHL.

[Santo]

I'll go with Hedgehog's answer, unless rbworld can prove he's a multi-millionaire

LT Profits point is valid, assuming we're not saying how big the favourites were. If you were comparing favorites between -200 and -220 for example in each sport, you'd get different results.

[jjgold]

Bases by far

[BrentCrude]

I could almost cry that baseball season is coming to a close because of the scenario where being a favorite doesn't mean much.Early in the season I always seem to win parlays on moneyline dogs and a few weeks later I go to moneyline favorite home teams covering the -1 1/2 at +160 and covering the over usually around 8 on a 4 team parlay.

[Dark Horse]

College football road favorites. Not much to be gained there.

[prop]

1. WWE
2. UFC
3. MLB
4. NHL

[LT Profits]

Dark Horse,

Actually, CFB Road Favorites are 72.5% SU since 1985 (CFB Home Faves are 78%).

[Tchocky]

In my short time betting baseball, it seems on any given day, 30% to 40% of the games are upsets. You can lose a lot of money taking the moneyline on the favorites unless you're winning 80% to 90% of your bets.

[Dark Horse]

Dark Horse,

Actually, CFB Road Favorites are 72.5% SU since 1985 (CFB Home Faves are 78%).

I understand why MLB numbers would be SU, but to me NCAAF numbers are more useful ATS.

So the answer to the topic's question is perhaps better split in two. One SU (clearly baseball favorites), the other ATS.