Correlated Parlays?

[BigDaddy]

Big D.

Truly sorry. I got frustrated explaining the notion of correlated parlays. In the example I gave, you could even play the 3rd parlay of Dog/Over, guaranteeing a profit on the sure one winner. Offsetting with a straight bet against your favorite par might be better. And, yes, I'm the idiot , not you. I'm done posting on this thread. Do the research and decide for yourself; I've been squeaking a small profit on this method for years. Prove me wrong with stats. It's easy to say these are sucker bets (Raiders) without stating facts. You make one stupid mistake, and your entire argument is dismissed. "Ganch" where are you,?

hedge what raiders said its called sarcasim (sp)

like doug said if your stupid enough to post the outs that allow them you will lose that out so my ? is if you know so much about them why even say anything?

that is guarnete.

[HedgeHog]

I thought I wouldn't post on this subject again, because Raiders and you called me on a very dumb mistake that I made--which embarrassed me to the max. I didn't realize Raiders was sarcastic, I re-read his post--am I missing something?. You called me stupid in your last post because I posted this info (we're even). But if it's an idiot's opinion why worry about it? And nowhere, as you claim, did I post where to take advantage of correlated parlays. And college aside, NFL correlated parlays are ripe for the taking every week. The Books simply don't care, because the average guy will still screw it up on his other bets.

[Doug]

I recall one book ( won't name it) calling me on these bets. They said OK if the spread was 20% or less of the total, no good if over 20%, and they would cancel on me, even if software accepted it. They locked my account until I agreed.

[BigDaddy]

hedge just give it a rest move on and make money

[HedgeHog]

hedge just give it a rest move on and make money

Fair enough if you think my point is valid. But you have to post that you're not smarter than a 5th grader (not a rip--it's a U.S. gameshow).

[BigDaddy]

im not smarter than a 5th grader



happy?

[dogman]

If you're making money with something it is best to just be quiet.

[HedgeHog]

im not smarter than a 5th grader



happy?

Yes, neither am I. You're a good sport, Big Daddy. God Bless.

[curious]

What if I am determined to bet the spread and the total on the same game and I don't care about all these fancy formulas? Is it better to bet both plays straight? Make 3 bets? Use some kind of hedging bet?

For example, tonight I have:
Washington +7 1950 to win 1500
Washington Philadelphia UNDER 39 345 to win 300

I could have bet 2300 to win 3200. There are 4 possible outcomes if I straight bet:
1) both plays win - win $1800
2) Washington +7 wins, UNDER loses win $1155
3) Washington +7 loses, UNDER wins lose $1650
4) both plays lose - lose $2295

If I bet $2300 to win $3200 on a parlay there are 2 possible outcomes, both plays win and the parlay wins, or the parlay loses.

I don't have the foggiest idea how to evaluate if using a parlay is better or worse here.

[raiders72002]

Raiders and you called me on a very dumb mistake that I made--which embarrassed me to the max.

Hedge- Relax, I wasn't making fun of you.

I post a ton of mistakes. As long as it doesn't cost you $ you're OK.

[Doug]

What if I am determined to bet the spread and the total on the same game and I don't care about all these fancy formulas? Is it better to bet both plays straight? Make 3 bets? Use some kind of hedging bet?

For example, tonight I have:
Washington +7 1950 to win 1500
Washington Philadelphia UNDER 39 345 to win 300

I could have bet 2300 to win 3200. There are 4 possible outcomes if I straight bet:
1) both plays win - win $1800
2) Washington +7 wins, UNDER loses win $1155
3) Washington +7 loses, UNDER wins lose $1650
4) both plays lose - lose $2295

If I bet $2300 to win $3200 on a parlay there are 2 possible outcomes, both plays win and the parlay wins, or the parlay loses.

I don't have the foggiest idea how to evaluate if using a parlay is better or worse here.

For one thing the 2-team parlay should win $260 for every $100 risked.

[curious]

For one thing the 2-team parlay should win $260 for every $100 risked.

I just love people that nitpick without actually giving any useful information.

My question was "how do you evaluate what is the best bet here" 2 straight bets, 1 parlay or some combination of straight bets and parlay.

[EJandV]

In the big picture of it all >>> it is always smarter to bet your plays straight , it takes alot of discipline and a nice bankroll .
If you are hot and cant seem to miss at the time you will wish you parlayed your selections , but most cant and do not stay hot so is best to just need 1 thing to happen to get paid not 2 , 3 or 4 .

[Doug]

I just love people that nitpick without actually giving any useful information.

My question was "how do you evaluate what is the best bet here" 2 straight bets, 1 parlay or some combination of straight bets and parlay.

Knowing the correct payoff is a good 1st step in deciding which play is best.

Here's a start:

The larger the spread, the more you should consider the parlay ( if allowed), you should bet it for less than your straights. You'd risk $220 to win $200 on the two straight bets ( $100 each), so if that's your level, and you wanted to parlay instead, a risk of $100 (or even less) would be more like it.

You can split it up if desired, just how is your decision, perhaps take the total $220, and go 30-40% on each straight, and the rest on the parlay. If it's a big spread and you have a book taking it, I'd put the largest part ( or all of it) on the parlay.