CHECK THIS OUT! Opinions please!!

[misteve]

Fella's: Want to throw this out there and see what you all think. First of all, here is the deal:

I play football (pro and college) with a local here. The minimum bet is $25. NO limit to how much though. Also, no money changes hand until the season is over...we both keep track. If I bet $25, I win $25...if I lose, I lose $27.50...he takes 10%.

I'm thinking about doing a double up way of playing...kind of what some do in roulette for example. That is, each time a bet losses, double the next bet and keep doing that until you win. At that point, as soon as you win, you are up more than you were before. Reason is, seems like after playing alot of games, I seem to usually make a little money, break even or lose some. I look back at my records each year and I see losses and wins scattered pretty evenly. An example of a week-end could be: W L L L W W L L W L L L W
SO. let's take that scenario and work the numbers of the above example:

My typical way of playing: - $92.50
Double up method : + $82.50

Because the longest losing streak in this example was 3 in a row, that would have constituted the higest bet of $200. ($25, $50, $10, $200..)Remember, this local has no HIGH limit to bet. 4 losses in a row contain a $400, 5 in a row a $800 and so on. No money changes hands until the season is over.

I look back at my records and hardly ever see any 4 or 5 losses in a row. Even if I did, I'd have to make sure I just keep doubling no matter how high the bet gets. Play until you win.

SO....WHAT DO YOU THINK????

I realize I'd have to play maybe just one game a day, maybe 2 or 3 on a week-end. I'd have to see the outcome of a game before I place the next bet, so could possibly do a early, middle and late game on a Saturday for example.
Slow way of playing, but seems pretty safe and consistant to me.

OKAY, enough....if you've read this far, please tell me I'm crazy or is a decent idea.....

THANKS!!!!

[cloudagh]

Martingale anyone?

[Sean]

What happens if your local were to eventually say "No" to your next bet?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martingale_(betting_system)

[misteve]

Yeah, that would suck! any idea's how I can protect myself from this? He is a friend of mine, by the way.

[misteve]

Did the martingale thing at local casino the other day...roulette...played only odds ($25 chips) and walked out of there with $300 in less thans an hour! Know it can't be that easy! Casino's know this, and put limits on the highest bet. Luckily that day the highest string of losses ( even numbers in this case) was 3 so the most I put down at a time was 8 chips. I had 40 chips ($1000) in my stack.

[Zeroed]

Go read the Wizard of Odds, do you really think ANY betting system works in the long run? If you do that is very naive, the day will come when it bites you in the ass - big time

[The HG]

I hope RickySteve responds to this.

[misteve]

I know this sounds to good to be true and that is why it is scary. Someone just tell me why this CAN'T work though? If there is no high limit on the bets, you just bet until you win. NO ONE can lose ALL bets in a season, can they??? I mean, that could possibly mean 100 straight losses! Is that possible??
Have any of us even had 7 sraight losses in a row, for instance???

[cloudagh]

Steve,
Murphy's law states that YOU will be the first person to have 100 straight losses. Don't bet against Murphy.

[20Four7]

I know this sounds to good to be true and that is why it is scary. Someone just tell me why this CAN'T work though? If there is no high limit on the bets, you just bet until you win. NO ONE can lose ALL bets in a season, can they??? I mean, that could possibly mean 100 straight losses! Is that possible??
Have any of us even had 7 sraight losses in a row, for instance???

If you haven't had 7 straight losses you need to gamble more. I've had 7 straight losses. (actually it was far more) I've seen the dice go around the craps table without a shooter making a point. In the same breath I've shot the dice for over an hour where the whole table made large coin.

[misteve]

If you haven't had 7 straight losses you need to gamble more. I've had 7 straight losses. (actually it was far more) I've seen the dice go around the craps table without a shooter making a point. In the same breath I've shot the dice for over an hour where the whole table made large coin.

I mean 7 sraight losses in football.....I've looked back for the
the last 3 years, and can't find any 7 straight losses...alot of 4's, 5,s and some 6's. MY records look like: LLWLWLLWLLL...page after page....not bragging, because with my current manner of betting, I'm losing!!

[misteve]

Steve,
Murphy's law states that YOU will be the first person to have 100 straight losses. Don't bet against Murphy.

You are so right, my friend. I repsect that advice greatly and will add it to my "vault" in researching this topic.

[Zeroed]

And with the Martingale you get many very small winnings, and some day it might bite you in the ass and it was all for nothing.
You could as well stop playing and save yourself the hassle of this stupid system.

[pokernut9999]

If you haven't had 7 straight losses you need to gamble more. I've had 7 straight losses. (actually it was far more) I've seen the dice go around the craps table without a shooter making a point. In the same breath I've shot the dice for over an hour where the whole table made large coin.

7 straight losses, are you kidding !!!!



I have not lost 7 straight since ------- oh this afternoon.

[misteve]

And with the Martingale you get many very small winnings, and some day it might bite you in the ass and it was all for nothing.
You could as well stop playing and save yourself the hassle of this stupid system.

I hear ya! I would continue to make roughly $25 each time, but say I had 5 losses in a row and then a win, well then i'd be betting $800 on the last one, and not sure if my heart could take risking $800 to make another $25! The thing that worries me the most would be what Sean said about what happens if the local says "No" to a bet! I guess if it a for sure thing that there is no max. bet limit, then it would work....just keep betting until you win a game. Honestly, I can't see losing 100 games in a row of course, but I could see losing 10 in a row I guess. That last bet would be for $12,800! Okay, now this is starting to make sense and makes me want to run far, far away fro m this!!!

[misteve]

7 straight losses, are you kidding !!!!



I have not lost 7 straight since ------- oh this afternoon.

3 losses in a row so far, last night and 2 today. Have the Chi to go...if that is a loss, than I'm at 4. You gave me a good idea, pokernut...I'm track my straight losses for a few weeks and "pretend" I'm doubling up, just to see what happens. Thanks.

[Sean]

In the absence of a limit to the size of your wager Martingale might work. However, one's out can disappear for any number of reasons, one's financial position might prohibit them from being able to double that next wager, losses could mount high enough to make the next double impossible, personal situations can change overnight, etc. I think you'll find enough experienced players on this board that can vouch for a high number of successive losses. Assuming your example of an initial wager of $25, will your local really take $25,600 after 10 straight losses? Will he take $102,400 after a 12th loss, or will he be happy standing pat on a $50,000+ profit? Just food for thought, but if it was that easy we'd all have been using this system long ago and be happily retired by now.

Good luck with whatever you decide to do.

[misteve]

In the absence of a limit to the size of your wager Martingale might work. However, one's out can disappear for any number of reasons, one's financial position might prohibit them from being able to double that next wager, losses could mount high enough to make the next double impossible, personal situations can change overnight, etc. I think you'll find enough experienced players on this board that can vouch for a high number of successive losses. Assuming your example of an initial wager of $25, will your local really take $25,600 after 10 straight losses? Will he take $102,400 after a 12th loss, or will he be happy standing pat on a $50,000+ profit? Just food for thought, but if it was that easy we'd all have been using this system long ago and be happily retired by now.

Good luck with whatever you decide to do.

Yeah, I hear ya, Sean.....if something sounds too good to be true, it usually is! This is tempting, to at least try it fo a short while. My gut says, why even go through all the hassle? such as...going to sleep with a $3200 bet standing.....wondering if the local will ever say "no more bets".......waiting for that WIN and not knowing when it will come....doesn't seem worth it....I think I'd rather be down $120 after 20 bets and just keep plugging on and at least, managing things and sleeping good at night!
Man, you guys are helping me alot in sorting this out. Thanks alot. would be very interesting to hear just one person who would consider this a good gamble, just to hear that side of the story. I'm getting pretty convinced where I am going with this though!

[SBR_John]

Do some research on the "modified martingale". Its far safer and doesnt have you betting $6400 and then $12,800. Your local is going to have a problem with that. He might say no limit but you go from a $25 bet to $12,800, ugh, you might find his drfinition of no limit is slightly different than yours.

[misteve]

Do some research on the "modified martingale". Its far safer and doesnt have you betting $6400 and then $12,800. Your local is going to have a problem with that. He might say no limit but you go from a $25 bet to $12,800, ugh, you might find his drfinition of no limit is slightly different than yours.

Will do, thanks