SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. — Shohei Otani is what this current free-agent market lacks. He is a young, talented starter — already perceived as one of the best pitchers in the world — with the fringe benefit that he actually might be a superb hitter, as well.
But Otani is not expected to come to the American majors until next offseason, at which point the frenzy for his services likely will make him the first Japanese import to exceed $200 million.
“I actually think the guy might get a $300 million deal,” said a scout who has had multiple looks at the righty pitcher/lefty hitter. “That is how special a talent he is. He has power No. 1 starter stuff. He is throwing 99 [mph] in the eighth inning. His secondary stuff is unhittable. He is big and loose. His fastball is electric and his curve, cutter and split are all 70s [on the 20-80 scouting scale].
Otani is 6-foot-4, began pitching professionally when he was 18 and this past season went 10-4 with a 1.86 ERA, 11.2 strikeouts per nine innings and — oh yeah — he hit 22 homers with a 1.004 OPS in 382 plate appearances. By the way, he does not turn 23 until July.
The Yankees have restrained themselves from big spending in recent offseasons and have the contracts of Alex Rodriguez and CC Sabathia coming off the books after this season, plus Masahiro Tanaka could opt out.
The Cubs, who pursued Tanaka, will have the contracts of starters Jake Arrieta and John Lackey coming off the books after 2017. The Dodgers will be a year away from Clayton Kershaw potentially opting out of his deal, the same with the Red Sox and David Price. The Angels will be free of their last $25 million obligation to Josh Hamilton. The Astros, who were quietly in deep on Tanaka, probably have money to spend. The Phillies definitely do.
There was some thought Otani might come this winter, especially if Nippon Ham won the Japan Series, which they did. But I spoke to more than a dozen scouts, executives and agents who are vested in Japanese baseball and they all say next offseason is the target.
But Otani is not expected to come to the American majors until next offseason, at which point the frenzy for his services likely will make him the first Japanese import to exceed $200 million.
“I actually think the guy might get a $300 million deal,” said a scout who has had multiple looks at the righty pitcher/lefty hitter. “That is how special a talent he is. He has power No. 1 starter stuff. He is throwing 99 [mph] in the eighth inning. His secondary stuff is unhittable. He is big and loose. His fastball is electric and his curve, cutter and split are all 70s [on the 20-80 scouting scale].
Otani is 6-foot-4, began pitching professionally when he was 18 and this past season went 10-4 with a 1.86 ERA, 11.2 strikeouts per nine innings and — oh yeah — he hit 22 homers with a 1.004 OPS in 382 plate appearances. By the way, he does not turn 23 until July.
The Yankees have restrained themselves from big spending in recent offseasons and have the contracts of Alex Rodriguez and CC Sabathia coming off the books after this season, plus Masahiro Tanaka could opt out.
The Cubs, who pursued Tanaka, will have the contracts of starters Jake Arrieta and John Lackey coming off the books after 2017. The Dodgers will be a year away from Clayton Kershaw potentially opting out of his deal, the same with the Red Sox and David Price. The Angels will be free of their last $25 million obligation to Josh Hamilton. The Astros, who were quietly in deep on Tanaka, probably have money to spend. The Phillies definitely do.
There was some thought Otani might come this winter, especially if Nippon Ham won the Japan Series, which they did. But I spoke to more than a dozen scouts, executives and agents who are vested in Japanese baseball and they all say next offseason is the target.
