100 points for the best answer to this March Madness question

[CarpeDime]

Btw, this is a real promotion at the South Bend Medical Foundation. I really hope they have insurance for this, in case all the favorites hit...

lollololol


so funny when places "dabble" in booking and wind up getting smoked on their cutesy offerings

[Chi_archie]

give some blood pete

[hhsilver]

To the nearest penny, your EV is $0.00 .

The probability of a prize is so low, that P(55,56)x500 + P(57-59)x5000 + P(60+)x50000 rounds to 0.00

[yisman]

^ Straight up's can be a pain in the ass in March, but 55 is very attainable. The problem is, if you're in New York (Eli Manning), you know how people get when hospitals are actually giving people money for once.

He's not in New York, and what does Eli Manning have to do with anything?

[yisman]

by the way, here's a link to a story about it.

It's March and you know what that means, March Madness is almost here. Now there's a chance for you to save lives and win big.
If you give blood at the South Bend Medical Foundation you can fill out a bracket for the Men's NCAA tournament for a chance to win up to $50,000
You can also win tickets to the second round of the Women’s NCAA tournament. It's a way to get donations at a time when they're very low.
"It has a shelf life just like the milk so every 42 days we need more blood so it's a constant need,” Kay Clark-Cox from the South Bend Medical Foundation said.

I wonder why justin forgot to mention the tickets to the second round of the women's tournament.

[sharpcat]

EV= +$4,120 and a glass of orange juice.

[1UP]

if you're in New York (Eli Manning), you know how people get when hospitals are actually giving people money for once.

It's a general statement that was not speaking to the OP? Hence the person quoted.

[SexyMit]

I just want to know, you are a sharp guy. You make lots of money with your computer models, why would you want to take advantage of a non profit orginization in the 1st place is beyond me. You wouldn't feel guilty taking their money, knowing all you are doing is trying to take advantage of the situation? If it was say Hooters March Madness card or something I would understand but not from a Blood Bank!

[yisman]

It's a general statement that was not speaking to the OP? Hence the person quoted.

Eli Manning?

[sharpcat]

what is our donors expected win % ??????

since we are picking teams heads up depending on the skill of our donor we could assume that he would have better than a 50% chance of winning each bet. is he likely to hit 60% 70%?????

if we were betting against the spread expecting a win rate of 50% than our rarity of occurrence for each possibility is 0.00% therefore making our EV $0, but if we are likely to hit better than 50% we would be more likely of having an occurrence. Regardless if we were going to donate regardless than we surely have expected value because we do not stand to lose anything, but the amount of our value depends on our ability to pick winners. Just by picking favorites alone with an average ML of -200 say, we would be expecting to pick 65% winners so it is kinda hard to calculate without knowing our donors expected win percentage.

[poker_dummy101]

$5.. or a footlong

[reno cool]

What does it mean to fill out a bracket? Is there 63 games? And how do you know the matchups ahead of time?

[FreakyD]

Now that's what I call "Blood Money"

[yisman]

what is our donors expected win % ??????

since we are picking teams heads up depending on the skill of our donor we could assume that he would have better than a 50% chance of winning each bet. is he likely to hit 60% 70%?????

You're ignoring the bracket format. Maybe he'd hit 60+% in the first round, but when one of his final four teams loses early, that's a bunch of automatic losses.

Hitting 60 or even 65% in the first round is no great feat. The problem comes in later.

Good luck figuring out which two teams will play for the title, for example.

Whoever set up this contest knows that with the amount of donors (not likely to be over 200 or whatever), the chances of someone actually nailing a payout is miniscule.

Now that I think about it, donating at the New York Blood Center is probably better value. They give you some points, which can be redeemed. A few donations and you can get something decent, like maybe a watch.

But if you're donating to try and make a profit, you're doing it for the wrong reasons. What they give is not enough to really make it worth your time. It's done to do a nice thing.

[sharpcat]

You're ignoring the bracket format. Maybe he'd hit 60+% in the first round, but when one of his final four teams loses early, that's a bunch of automatic losses.

Hitting 60 or even 65% in the first round is no great feat. The problem comes in later.

Good luck figuring out which two teams will play for the title, for example.

Whoever set up this contest knows that with the amount of donors (not likely to be over 200 or whatever), the chances of someone actually nailing a payout is miniscule.

Now that I think about it, donating at the New York Blood Center is probably better value. They give you some points, which can be redeemed. A few donations and you can get something decent, like maybe a watch.

But if you're donating to try and make a profit, you're doing it for the wrong reasons. What they give is not enough to really make it worth your time. It's done to do a nice thing.

I agree but just because you have a few teams lose in round 1 does not mean that you can not sweep round 2 if all your losses in round 1 were not picked to advance past round 2. An average moneyline or our expected win % would be necessary to calculate our EV.

Also it was stated that our donor had already planned to donate so this offer is just an added bonus.

[yisman]

I agree but just because you have a few teams lose in round 1 does not mean that you can not sweep round 2 if all your losses in round 1 were not picked to advance past round 2.

lol. yes, of course it's technically possible, but extremely unlikely.

If you're looking to hit 55 games, you pretty much need a perfect first round and a lot of luck later.

[sharpcat]

lol. yes, of course it's technically possible, but extremely unlikely.

If you're looking to hit 55 games, you pretty much need a perfect first round and a lot of luck later.

Although I do understand the point you are trying to get at you are looking at it the wrong way and assuming that it is impossible but you have no mathematical evidence to support your theory.

What I am saying is that if you have closely estimated numbers to plug into a mathematical formula you could come up with and estimated probability of occurrence that holds a hell of a lot more significance than your "theory" which has absolutely no evidence to support itself. Although at best you could only come up with a close estimate it is still by far better than to say it has no chance with no evidence. People win the mega millions lottery all the time with odds of 1 in 176,000,000 so to say that it is impossible is a foolish response which in no way answers the question being asked.

[yisman]

Although I do understand the point you are trying to get at you are looking at it the wrong way and assuming that it is impossible but you have no mathematical evidence to support your theory.

What I am saying is that if you have closely estimated numbers to plug into a mathematical formula you could come up with and estimated probability of occurrence that holds a hell of a lot more significance than your "theory" which has absolutely no evidence to support itself. Although at best you could only come up with a close estimate it is still by far better than to say it has no chance with no evidence. People win the mega millions lottery all the time with odds of 1 in 176,000,000 so to say that it is impossible is a foolish response which in no way answers the question being asked.

I didn't say it was impossible. What the hell are you talking about?

No, I do not have the exact probability, but you don't have to be a math whiz to look at the bracket and realize that the odds of getting 55 correct are very, very long. If you get a few wrong in the first round, they very nearly approach zero.

[sharpcat]

I didn't say it was impossible. What the hell are you talking about?

No, I do not have the exact probability, but you don't have to be a math whiz to look at the bracket and realize that the odds of getting 55 correct are very, very long. If you get a few wrong in the first round, they very nearly approach zero.

What does this argument of yours have to do with this thread????

The question was what is your expected value???? not will you win???

Do you know what EV is????
Expected value is not asking whether you will win money on this 1 chance, but is asking should you have the chance to take this 1,000,000 times what would you expect to profit on average each time.

since this is a free offer in which you will win money it is impossible to have an EV of zero, therefore you are wrong.

if the question was can you win this with only one chance you are still wrong it is possible.

Not sure if you are bored or what but I simply asked the OP if he had some more accurate % to fill into the equation and you with no logic behind your reason chose to start an argument with me saying you are unlikely to win. NO SHIT!!!! but that was not the question, the question was about EV not whether or not you will win.

[yisman]

What does this argument of yours have to do with this thread????

What are you arguing against????

I said it was technically possible but very unlikely, and you start ranting about how "People win the mega millions lottery all the time with odds of 1 in 176,000,000 so to say that it is impossible is a foolish response which in no way answers the question being asked."

NO SHIT!!!! And who said it was impossible????

I can't find any posts saying that. Sounds like a strawman.

[sharpcat]

lol. yes, of course it's technically possible, but extremely unlikely.

If you're looking to hit 55 games, you pretty much need a perfect first round and a lot of luck later.

just saying that you came out and discredited my question for no reason I was only trying to get to the bottom of the question and my post had nothing to do with whether it could be done or not I was only asking for more specifics.

But you are arguing that it is unlikely which is not what the thread is about, we are trying to figure EV here. It is not likely can not be an answer to the question, -4, +1, +.000001, +0 could all be answers but it is unlikely is not an answer to "what is the EV". If your argument is that it is not possible to calculate your EV in this situation because of all of the possible variances than I can accept that, but would disagree.

[Glitch]

What does it mean to fill out a bracket? Is there 63 games? And how do you know the matchups ahead of time?

its a tournament chart. you only know the first round then you guess the rest based on who you think will win.

this is essentially a freeplay where this bet is your only option of what to bet. so because of the absense of risk, and an investment of zero units, the expected value is basically infinite. you are showing your age and ignorant of technological advancements and modern regulatory oversight if you think people still get aids at reputable donation stations.

i'll take jerseyshop101's word for it that there are 9000000000000000000 possible combinations of how the tourney can go down but i would guess that Good Cappers will get about 28 out of 32 correct. then out of that 28 teams they have left, pick 12 or so more that advance to the round of 16. then 4 of the 12. and 2 more for the rest of the way. (46) then i'll add 5 more wins for not trying to send underdogs through for whatever upset bonuses one would receive by picking how they normally would. (51)

this scenario is enough to win many office pools picking about 51 matchups correctly and falling rather short of the prize money here.

it is more difficult that it sounds initially and what are the chances that one of the couple hundred? people they have donating will be adept in sports enough to surpass this projection. fairly slim i would say. the chances are way higher of one of us picking 56, 57 games right than a light-headed regular joe cracksmoker off the street.

[constrictor]

$50000 (why not)

[constrictor]

well i d just say somewhere above $0 but not exceeding $50000

[tltaylor89]

Ev =0

[DeluxeLiner]

so do we know who wins this

[GRUMPERZ]

???

[Chi_archie]

who won justin?

[Justin7]

Congrats, Gelatinous Cube. Your answer contributed the most (first) to the discussion.

[chaka]

Elements of Binary in the NCAA tournament

http://www.exploringbinary.com/elements-of-binary-in-the-ncaa-basketball-tournament/

This link has graphs of picking undefeated favs in % by round- using an estimated (declining )sliding win % by round

http://vegaswatch.net/2008/03/what-are-odds-perfect-bracket.html

[reno cool]

Congrats, Gelatinous Cube. Your answer contributed the most (first) to the discussion.

are !!!! some kind of math symbols I'm not aware of?

[Glitch]

i agree with the pick.

[GELATINOUS CUBE]

aha, let math teacher into your casino (okay, hack, aspiring part time math teacher).

67! = 67 x 66 x 65 x 64...etc x 1, (but not x 0) ..

so you could simplify the combined probablility problem, and make it easier.

Simplyifying... (just a minute).

[GELATINOUS CUBE]

$500 x 2(63!)-(55!)(56!) div. by 63! x (.65) x (.33)
+
$5000 x 3(63!) -(57!)58!(59!) div by 63! x(.65) x (.33)
+
$50,000 x 4(63!) -(60!)61!(62!)63!) div by 63! x (.65) x (.33) = EV in $

[GELATINOUS CUBE]

again Comnined Probability is advanced algebra w/ probability + statistics (maybe 8th, 9th, or 10th grade adv. math in the U.S.).
Yes, I got all As.

Simplifys... and correct me if I'm wrong...

$.2145 x ($1000(1-( hold on....