100 points for the best answer to this March Madness question

[Justin7]

I decide which response is best, deadline is March 3, 11:59 p.m.

A blood bank is having a contest. If you give blood, you get 1 free bracket entry. If you predict 55-56 games correctly, you win $500. 57-59 games wins $5000 and 60+ wins $50000.

Assuming you select the likely favorite (spread favorites in round 1, and your best estimate of the favorite in round 2 and on), what is the EV of this promotion? Assume you were planning to give blood anyway, so there is no real cost to entering.

[Justin7]

Btw, this is a real promotion at the South Bend Medical Foundation. I really hope they have insurance for this, in case all the favorites hit...

[pavyracer]

Are the lines stale or live?

[fsugolf]

what do you have to do to give blood in Indiana?

[WhatAboutMeBitch]

is the play in game included?

[rake922]

6% .

[Casperwaits]

Okay, here is my dilemna. What if I hit a bunch of games and they find out my blood is tainted. Do I still win?

[Justin7]

Are the lines stale or live?

On the bracket, you pick winners, not against the spread. The whole bracket has to be turned in before the first (non-playin) game starts.

[jlgarciaiii22]

I've played in Bracket Tourneys in the past on the net... I have had 55-56 wins a couple times along with 1,000's of other players. If this is true they could be hit pretty hard... They are probably banking that it will be a bunch of saps who can't pick'em.

[WhatAboutMeBitch]

well all in all the blood bank gets ZERO dollars out of this promotion....... they are not able to have any positive Expected Value out of this. otherwise we need to calculate the value of blood, and the value of the estimated extra units of blood given BECAUSE of this promotion. As far as calculating the %'s of winning 55 out of 65 games.

I'd say the blood bank has a 97.45% chance of not giving out a prize on 55 or more games hitting


98.35% chance of 57 or more not happening. which gives great value to this prize

and 99.6% chance of 60 or more not happening, which gives great great great great value to this prize

[pico]

i say it is -EV put in the chance of contracting AIDS

[WhatAboutMeBitch]

On the bracket, you pick winners, not against the spread. The whole bracket has to be turned in before the first (non-playin) game starts.

you said "favorites" i'm sure that is why pavy asked the question. do you define favs as seeded favs? or spread favs? because a higher % of 9 seeds have beaten 8 seeds historically for instance. so who is the real "FAV"

we need operational definitions here pal

[WeinketoWarrick]

99% that enter will have STD's, the 1% that are clean won't be able to pick winners.

Time is money, no +EV in this situation.

[compaqDikk]

guys don't even fukkin bother. you have a better chance of cracking the EA baseball game throwing a no no and getting, 1,000,000 from them in their promotion

[WhatAboutMeBitch]

guys don't even fukkin bother. you have a better chance of cracking the EA baseball game throwing a no no and getting, 1,000,000 from them in their promotion

FALSE











you need a perfect game to win the $

[yisman]

you said "favorites" i'm sure that is why pavy asked the question. do you define favs as seeded favs? or spread favs? because a higher % of 9 seeds have beaten 8 seeds historically for instance. so who is the real "FAV"

we need operational definitions here pal

He said you would be picking favorites ATS in the first round, and then his estimation of which team would be favored after that.

I donate blood/platelets frequently. I wish a place near here had a promotion like that.

[Jive]

I would say there is a 100% chance the blood bank won't give out a penny of its own due to this promotion because they will have sponsors/donors covering any potential tab, including through fronting the cost for insurance. I can't imagine a not-for-profit SERVICE organization taking a chance on having such an enormous payout, and I know they studied the odds before going ahead with this idea so they are well aware that it is very possible to end up with a heavy outlay.

[yisman]

whenever companies offer such a place, they usually have a backer (an advertiser). And that company often buys insurance.


For example, when SftC was offering a million for a 25 streak, Progressive sponsored the contest, but they probably took out insurance.

Now the format has changed, and it's a guaranteed payout.

[bigbank]

Simple answer. It depends on the oranges

[eidolon]

around 24 dollars

[GRUMPERZ]

Alright,, a real answer since everyone is missing the point...

You cannot determine the EV of the promotion until you see the matchups or the lines. Certain years it will be higher than others due to how the 7-10 and 8-9 seeds matchup to each other. If all the 8-9 seeds end up being a -5 fav or higher than the EV goes way way up as opposed to coinflip odds.

You need to fade 9 "upsets" to cash here. There are about 5 upsets in the first round alone. That leaves you 4 along the way. I'd be willing to venture the EV is way lower than most people think. I'd put the EV at $50 with variance through the roof for a sharp. About $10 for a square. Much like video poker, the majority of your value lies in the $50k, or Royal Flush. Not likely to happen in your lifetime (assuming you play this contest every year til you die)

[thechaoz]

Who is going to suck my blood for a buck?

[Nismo]

$4326.50

[Richkas]

One in two to the 55th power

[harlee71]

Since it is free and you were going to play anyway...

Pick favs in the first round. Since most upsets happen in the second round. Find a bracket where neither team will go past the sweet 16 and make your upsets there. Either you hit it or you only lose one game either way. By doing just that there you bring up the -EV closer to the middle. After that point you have to hope the best teams(or best vegas odds!) hold out till the end. Most of the time the elite 8 will knock off 1 or two of the favs, if not you are in the money! So I think if you play smart you have a decent chance to win the $500. Just picking favs would net you 47-50. Getting two 2nd round upsets gets you to low 50's and the team with the best odds to win will get you to mid to upper 50's if your lucky. Real lucky!

[GELATINOUS CUBE]

pico haha.

j7. I wouldn't give blood or do that plasma crap at some ghetto blood bank for less than $um.. $300,000.

But the value depends on the moneylines and the percentage they hit. I am assuming the favorites are going to win 65% of the games (??) and the avg money line will be -300 (??) or fav% and ML.xx ( the moneyline in decimals).

Well round one.. you have 32 games, then 16 games, then 8 games, then 4 games, then 2 game, then 1 game = 63 games.

so then you figure the probability of getting 55-56 games right which can be calculated... hold on while I drive to my high school and try to see if my 10th grade math book is still in the trash can..

um.. {63! - (55!56!)} divided by 63!

so $500 x [(63!-55!) + (63! - 56!)) divided by 63! x (.65) x (.33)..

+

$5000 x [{63!-57!) + (63!-58!) + (63! -59!)] divided by 63! x (.65) x (.33)..

+

$50,000 x [(63!-63!) + (63! - 62!) + (63! - 61!) + (63! - 60!)] div. by 63! x (.65) x (.33)

should give you the EV. Check the Stardust archives for the exact avg. moneyline value and favorite win percentage from the history of the March Madness tourney.

But I think this is how you would set up this combined probablity problem, but again I didn't bring an advanced algebra textbook home from work.

[GELATINOUS CUBE]

rickeysteve, do you have a calculator?

[Lnn7]

what's EV?

[hhsilver]

i'll just take the first post of day points for now -- so at least this thread is +ev for me -- good luck to all on getting the 100 pt prize

[JerseyShop101]

An interesting tidbit I found at webwire:

There are 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 possible brackets. That’s the number nine follow by eighteen zeros. That’s over 9.2 quintillion. Some examples of just how big this number is:
If everyone on the planet each randomly filled out a bracket, the odds would be over 1.5 BILLION to 1 against anyone having a perfect bracket.

If all possible brackets were stacked on top of each other (on standard paper), the pile would reach from the moon and back over 1.1 million times.

All possible brackets (on standard paper) would weigh 100,000 times more than every man, women, and child on earth combined.

Assume on the day the universe was formed (approximately 20 billion years ago) that 6.6 billion people (the world’s current population) would have each started filling out one bracket per second; as of today they would completed less than 10% of all possible brackets.

Even if a person had a 90% chance of winning each game he picked, his odds would still be 763 to 1 against picking a perfect bracket.

I say the odds are still better for an SBR poster to ht this baby!

Bring on March Madness!

[jgiun1]

i say it is -EV put in the chance of contracting AIDS

lol

[kboiler]

I was told there would be no math.

[NY Playa]

hard to win 55 of 63 games bro...

[yisman]

An interesting tidbit I found at webwire:

There are 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 possible brackets. That’s the number nine follow by eighteen zeros. That’s over 9.2 quintillion. Some examples of just how big this number is:
If everyone on the planet each randomly filled out a bracket, the odds would be over 1.5 BILLION to 1 against anyone having a perfect bracket.

If all possible brackets were stacked on top of each other (on standard paper), the pile would reach from the moon and back over 1.1 million times.

All possible brackets (on standard paper) would weigh 100,000 times more than every man, women, and child on earth combined.

Assume on the day the universe was formed (approximately 20 billion years ago) that 6.6 billion people (the world’s current population) would have each started filling out one bracket per second; as of today they would completed less than 10% of all possible brackets.

Even if a person had a 90% chance of winning each game he picked, his odds would still be 763 to 1 against picking a perfect bracket.

I say the odds are still better for an SBR poster to ht this baby!

Bring on March Madness!

the most staggering part is the 1.5 billion to 1 against. Considering that the number of brackets filled out doesn't come close to approaching the population of the planet, no wonder places are so confident in offering big money prizes for the perfect bracket.

Assume on the day the universe was formed (approximately 20 billion years ago) that 6.6 billion people (the world’s current population) would have each started filling out one bracket per second; as of today they would completed less than 10% of all possible brackets.

6.6 billion people filling out one bracket per second (not sure how it could be done that quickly. Should be more like one every three minutes or something) for 20 billion years? That number...

[1UP]

I've played in Bracket Tourneys in the past on the net... I have had 55-56 wins a couple times along with 1,000's of other players. If this is true they could be hit pretty hard... They are probably banking that it will be a bunch of saps who can't pick'em.

^ Straight up's can be a pain in the ass in March, but 55 is very attainable. The problem is, if you're in New York (Eli Manning), you know how people get when hospitals are actually giving people money for once.