1. #1
    pavyracer
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    Taking The Points In NFL Is A Square Move

    Out of 15 games this week the winning team either won outright as a dog or covered the spread as a favorite. Only game that was an exception was the Saints/Panthers game where the line jumped from -3.5 to -10 after Drew Brees was hurt so it was an exception to the rest. Also the Colts won but didn't cover the spread.

    Point is you first need to pick a winner. If you are good at it then either lay the points if you want the favorite to win or bet the dog ML. Taking the points is a waste of money and energy. Also do not bet teasers because they are sucker bets.
    Last edited by pavyracer; 09-28-15 at 03:53 PM. Reason: Added Colts not covering the spread
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  2. #2
    shaunovery
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    People bet the favs spread because ml is too juiced up but good points with the dogs

  3. #3
    ithinkiamgood
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  4. #4
    SharpAngles
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    Quote Originally Posted by pavyracer View Post
    Out of 15 games this week the winning team either won outright as a dog or covered the spread as a favorite. Only game that was an exception was the Saints/Panthers game where the line jumped from -3.5 to -10 after Drew Brees was hurt so it was an exception to the rest.

    Point is you first need to pick a winner. If you are good at it then either lay the points if you want the favorite to win or bet the dog ML. Taking the points is a waste of money and energy. Also do not bet teasers because they are sucker bets.
    2-2 and basing our opinion on one week in the NFL...

    Pavy you're better than this

  5. #5
    CanuckG
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    Sample size

  6. #6
    KSmooth4U
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    Didnt Tennessee cover and lose?

  7. #7
    RavensFan2k3
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    Quote Originally Posted by KSmooth4U View Post
    Didnt Tennessee cover and lose?
    Yes

  8. #8
    WWCD
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    People keep saying teasers are sucker bets, but if you keep hitting them who cares?

    Not supposed to parlay either, but tons of parlays hit this week!
    Last edited by WWCD; 09-28-15 at 03:37 PM.

  9. #9
    ZINISTER
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    A good theory. Provided the public could get themselves to do something against the grain. People can't get themselves to take a team someone else said is the weaker opponent. Most of these cappers don't even understand the line is set to get equal action on both sides. Between the media misleading them, to the line influencing them, they have no real idea on the proper way to approach capping a game themselves. They rely heavily on others oppinions. Most enjoy the high they get when wagering on a game. The highs and the lows. Oddly, some enjoy punishing themselves. When life is at a low point, some cappers will up their bets and bet more games. It has been said 9 out of 10 sports cappers are losers. But, the numbers continue to grow. It's an addiction we all enjoy. Been betting football since I was just old enough to puch a mower. I lived next to a bar and the owner would give me 2 bucks to take 3 or 4 swipes to mow his grass between our home and the bar. I would put a dollar of it in a bowling machine that had the miniature balls (1973). I would take the other buck and place a 10 or 12 parlay. I am from Akron, Ohio and would always take OSU and would take whoever played Rice. I never hit one, but I was extra interested in the games. I am 50 and nothing has changed. My advice is keep your bets the same amount, set a weekly limit that will not hurt you financially and if you think you will get rich betting sports-stop now. My dad didn't give me much advice in life, but he was a poker player and from what I hear a good one. He told me not to long before he passed, winners GO to dinner. When your up collect. GL

  10. #10
    slacker00
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    Interesting theory. If you like the dog, take the ML. If you like the fav, lay the points.

    Anyone want to run the numbers back 5-10 years for this? I'm not really in the mood.

  11. #11
    pavyracer
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    Quote Originally Posted by KSmooth4U View Post
    Didnt Tennessee cover and lose?
    Quote Originally Posted by RavensFan2k3 View Post
    Yes
    Correct.
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  12. #12
    pavyracer
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    Quote Originally Posted by slacker00 View Post
    Interesting theory. If you like the dog, take the ML. If you like the fav, lay the points.

    Anyone want to run the numbers back 5-10 years for this? I'm not really in the mood.
    I'm just saying do your homework before you look at the lines. Get good at picking who wins the game first. Then you will get the confidence in laying the points or betting the dog ML.

    Most people look at the lines when they first come out and bet the line blindly instead of actually capping the game to see who has the greatest chance to win the game.
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  13. #13
    WWCD
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    A pretty decent capper once told me, "Bet the line, not the team."

  14. #14
    thunderous
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    I rarely take the points in NFL or NBA because I will never bet a dog that I don't think will not win outright. And same with the favorites...why bet in the first place if you think they might not cover? If I like a fav I expect them to crush the opposition. Only exception is when its a short fav of say -1'5 and the ML is -120 then I take the ML.

  15. #15
    JMon
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    Quote Originally Posted by slacker00 View Post
    Interesting theory. If you like the dog, take the ML. If you like the fav, lay the points.

    Anyone want to run the numbers back 5-10 years for this? I'm not really in the mood.
    Since 89, we have seen dogs lose 4,338 times. Of those losses they are 1,086-3081-171 ATS (26.1%)

    Picking a winner as a dog is hard as they only win 32.7% of the time.

  16. #16
    jjgold
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    Paver been pretty accurate lately so cannot hammer him here

  17. #17
    lakerboy
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    Pavy let's make this easier.

    You post the winner of each game 1 hour before kickoff. Let's see how they do.

    The thing is it all depends on the number you get.

  18. #18
    RavensFan2k3
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    Quote Originally Posted by WWCD View Post
    A pretty decent capper once told me, "Bet the line, not the team."
    Yes, that's what I do

  19. #19
    TheSchafe
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    In my experience, betting both faves and dogs in certain spots is the way to go. That plus a contrarian mindset, especially in the NFL. Sometimes eating chalk is the right play.

  20. #20
    RavensFan2k3
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheSchafe View Post
    In my experience, betting both faves and dogs in certain spots is the way to go. That plus a contrarian mindset, especially in the NFL. Sometimes eating chalk is the right play.
    Yes, you'd think this is common sense. People assume that just because its a favorite, the "public" must be on it, making it square. Ridiculous.

  21. #21
    altieriflyers
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    Do tease. Just NEVER cross the zero

  22. #22
    edawg
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    Gambling like most things in life revolves around mathematics, greed, and envy. Problem is 90 plus percent are at a great disadvantage from the get go!
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  23. #23
    TheSchafe
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    Quote Originally Posted by RavensFan2k3 View Post
    Yes, you'd think this is common sense. People assume that just because its a favorite, the "public" must be on it, making it square. Ridiculous.
    Exhibit A: Steelers the last two weeks.

    Speaking of RavensFan, what do you think about Thursday?

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