I like this forum but it's home to the worst cappers of all the forums. I'll give anyone, besides JJGold, 2-1 that they can't win 56% of their games over 100 plays.
Raiders 56% challenge 2-1 odds that no capper at SBR can win 56%
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raiders72002SBR MVP
- 03-06-07
- 3368
#1Raiders 56% challenge 2-1 odds that no capper at SBR can win 56%Tags: None -
WheellSBR MVP
- 01-11-07
- 1380
#2so would I assuming they were betting against 50-50 lines. The odds of a coin being tails 56% or more in 100 flips are about 13.56%. Even if you were only giving 5-1 you'd still be well ahead if they were only slightly above 50%.Comment -
GanchrowSBR Hall of Famer
- 08-28-05
- 5011
#3
At +500, the player would need to be able to pick with 50.663% accuracy.
A 50% (i.e., coin-flip) bettor would need to receive odds of about +637.32 to make this a fair bet, and odds of about +603.80 for the vig to be equivalent to -110 line set vig.Comment -
GanchrowSBR Hall of Famer
- 08-28-05
- 5011
#4
If instead the player were to simply bet the proper Kelly stake on each of the 100 bets at odds of -110 and an edge of 14.545%. This would relate to a Kelly stake of 16% of bankroll per bet. Expected bankroll after 100 bets would be 998.0216% and median bankroll would be 323.4767%.
So in other words a Kelly bettor who had the opportunity to either participate in Raiders' challenge, or to simply bet the 100 games on his own at -110, would choose to forgo the +200 odds and bet on his own.
This is true for bettor of every skill level. There's never a time that such a bettor would strictly prefer Raider's bet to making his own bets at -110.
Now that doesn't mean that Raider's bet is worthless. I haven't yet done the math myself, but what you'd probably find if you did (ignoring opportunity costs and bets outside of this series) would be that the optimal bet allocation would include a very small amount on the Raiders bet, which very slightly reduced the allocation for the 100 game bets.Comment -
Dark HorseSBR Posting Legend
- 12-14-05
- 13764
#6If SBR put up this challenge I would immediately accept.
Raiders money, with all due respect, is no good to me.
I also disagree with his assessment of this forum. This place has probably the sharpest players of all forums, but hardly anyone posts their picks. For that you'll have to go to other forums.Comment -
raiders72002SBR MVP
- 03-06-07
- 3368
#8Nothings wrong with the coach's money Raiders. Just admit it that your chickenComment -
Dark HorseSBR Posting Legend
- 12-14-05
- 13764
#9If SBR organizes this is a new contest, make it a bit more interesting. See if you can get 200 players who are willing to pay a few hundred dollars each. Payouts start at twice your money back at 56%, and increase from there. Time frame: start of football until the end of the NBA regular season (to give everyone a fair chance).Comment -
raiders72002SBR MVP
- 03-06-07
- 3368
#11Raiders money, with all due respect, is no good to me.Comment -
raiders72002SBR MVP
- 03-06-07
- 3368
#12This place has probably the sharpest players of all forums,Comment -
StarbuckibmSBR High Roller
- 03-21-07
- 212
#13I've done it all summer in baseball. Picked almost 70% for the season in baseball this year. Believe it was about 68% to be exact. Done with baseball for this year. Taking a few weeks off for vacation and a break. All plays were posted and recorded on another forum.Comment -
StarbuckibmSBR High Roller
- 03-21-07
- 212
#14Just went over and got my record....might not be able to do it ever again. Was a great season.
2007 MLB: 64 - 29 - 1 (+81 units)Comment -
Dark HorseSBR Posting Legend
- 12-14-05
- 13764
#15Hardly anybody here posts there plays. But since you're keeping track of percentages, please show them.
Let's see if SBR can set something up. I feel that players who exceed 56% should win more than twice their money back, so some sort of pay scale should be agreed upon. Something like 57% = 3x, 58% = 4x, 59% = 5x, 60% = 6x.
Most likely, it would be more interesting to enter the Hilton contest than accept your challenge.
What's the max you're willing to put up?Comment -
raiders72002SBR MVP
- 03-06-07
- 3368
#16Darkhorse- I like your payouts.
SBR has great book info but the cappers suck.Comment -
raiders72002SBR MVP
- 03-06-07
- 3368
#17Most likely, it would be more interesting to enter the Hilton contest than accept your challenge.
What's the max you're willing to put up?
You name the amount and I'm in. Remember, it's post up.Comment -
Dark HorseSBR Posting Legend
- 12-14-05
- 13764
#18Let me give it some thought raiders. So basically you agree to the pay scale outlined above for up to 60%? What about over 60%? You would have to post up a lot more than me.Comment -
raiders72002SBR MVP
- 03-06-07
- 3368
#19The same would have to go the other way. If you hit 40% then I get more.Comment -
Dark HorseSBR Posting Legend
- 12-14-05
- 13764
#20Not interested. Sorry. If I play the Hilton I lose 1500 max. If I should happen to hit 65% there, I make a whole lot more than you are paying. If I want to double my money I may as well place it on a single bet. A whole lot quicker.Comment -
GanchrowSBR Hall of Famer
- 08-28-05
- 5011
#21Now that doesn't mean that Raider's bet is worthless. I haven't yet done the math myself, but what you'd probably find if you did (ignoring opportunity costs and bets outside of this series) would be that the optimal bet allocation would include a very small amount on the Raiders bet, which very slightly reduced the allocation for the 100 game bets.
I found that pretty interesting.Comment -
imgv94SBR Posting Legend
- 11-16-05
- 17192
#22Too bad I didn't do this challenge last season as I hit 58%..
Anyway I'm down, but here are my conditions...
4-1 odds
55%
NFL PLAYS ONLY
and someone (trustworthy) holds the money before hand..
Let's do this.Comment -
GanchrowSBR Hall of Famer
- 08-28-05
- 5011
#23
I don't think that that's what raiders is trying to test.Comment -
imgv94SBR Posting Legend
- 11-16-05
- 17192
#24
Raiders said 56%, I said 55%.. You are saying 50.291%?Comment -
GanchrowSBR Hall of Famer
- 08-28-05
- 5011
#25You're misunderstanding.
You said 55% paying out at +400.
For that to be a positive EV bet, the player would only need a win probability of 50.291% per bet.
In contrast, at +500 for ≥55 winning picks, a player would only need a win probability of 49.663% per bet, for the Raider bet to be +EV.Comment -
imgv94SBR Posting Legend
- 11-16-05
- 17192
#26Ganchrow with all due respect and you know I admire you.
You are making this harder than it has to be.
If I can go 55-45, I want $400
if I do anything less I'm completely willing to give $100 to him.Comment -
GanchrowSBR Hall of Famer
- 08-28-05
- 5011
#27
To put it another way, if you had a biased coin that landed heads 50.291% of the time, and someone offered you +400 saying that you couldn't flip 55 or more heads out of 100 flips, you'd be correct f(rom an EV perspective) to take the bet saying you can.Comment -
raiders72002SBR MVP
- 03-06-07
- 3368
#28your win probability for any given game would only need to be a rather unimpressive 50.291%
img couldn't hit 56% if I gave him the half time score.Comment -
imgv94SBR Posting Legend
- 11-16-05
- 17192
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raiders72002SBR MVP
- 03-06-07
- 3368
#3156% I'll give you 2-1
58% I'll give you 4-1
Final offer Mr. 58%Comment -
GanchrowSBR Hall of Famer
- 08-28-05
- 5011
#32Once again, imgv, for the 56% bet to be +EV you only need to be a 53.341% picker.
For the 56% bet to be +EV you only need to be a 53.297% picker.
So forget 56% and forget 58%. If you think you're on average a better than 53.5% picker then (from a pure EV perspective and ignoring cost of capital) you should take one of those bets.Comment -
tacomaxSBR Hall of Famer
- 08-10-05
- 9619
#35Originally posted by pags11SBR would never get rid of me...ever...Originally posted by BuddyBearI'd probably most likely chose Pags to jack off too.Originally posted by curioustaco is not a troll, he is a bubonic plague bacteria.Comment
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