System

G's pks · 02-01-10, 04:42 PM

dropout...acarmelo is only betting points...not money so do not shoot your load...slow down...

collegedropout · 02-01-10, 04:45 PM

Originally posted by G's pks

dropout...acarmelo is only betting points...not money so do not shoot your load...slow down...

LOL. I'm not blowing my load by any means. He may have SBR points on it, but I have four-digits on it..

Dunder · 02-01-10, 04:48 PM

Originally posted by collegedropout

dunder,

juice and buying points is factored in on how much you wager on the next game. At this time if you would be betting all of my games straight up you would be making more money. Sometimes it works out that way, sometimes it doesnt.

By "in the long run" I mean after thousands of plays. If it´s working for you, that´s great but I would ask whether you have a) verified the historical data for yourself, b) paid anyone for this "system".

acarmelo1 · 02-01-10, 04:48 PM

Originally posted by collegedropout

LOL. I'm not blowing my load by any means. He may have SBR points on it, but I have four-digits on it..

Good Luck

G's pks · 02-01-10, 04:50 PM

Originally posted by collegedropout

LOL. I'm not blowing my load by any means. He may have SBR points on it, but I have four-digits on it..

I had a winning chase system for the baseball season last year that was one of the very few...if not the only one that won from day one till the end of the season. It was posted in the baseball forum and it involved quote a bit of work. Over three hours of stats and capping before each series...

But I do not like the idea of you having...did you say four digits on a game? Tell me I am wrong and misreading this????

Because you hopefully understand there will be series losses over the long run.

collegedropout · 02-01-10, 04:51 PM

Dunder,

Monitor the plays for a while. I would be skeptical just like you. Again this is just going to come off terribly with everyone here but the NBA system is hitting 68% since the season tipped off. That is all games...straight up.

collegedropout · 02-01-10, 04:53 PM

G's,

There will be losses in the long run. Anyone who doesn't think that is an idiot. However these losses are rare and your bankroll is already built up and as ready as it can be to take a hit.

Bookie #1 = $300
Bookie #2 = $300
Online = $500

acarmelo1 · 02-01-10, 04:54 PM

if I tease those 3 for 8 points will I win 100% sure?

collegedropout · 02-01-10, 04:56 PM

No teasers.
No parlays.

Dunder · 02-01-10, 05:02 PM

Originally posted by collegedropout

Dunder,

Monitor the plays for a while. I would be skeptical just like you. Again this is just going to come off terribly with everyone here but the NBA system is hitting 68% since the season tipped off. That is all games...straight up.

You are by no means required to answer, but you appeared to ignore the two questions I asked in post 38

collegedropout · 02-01-10, 05:06 PM

The data is verified. Hours upon hours of research. It is similar to Rich Allen, but different in cases. I worked with my economic stats professor on it. He had interest in sports and was willing to help me out. Lots of research. A lot of it from sportsinsights. I did not buy anything from anyone!

G's pks · 02-01-10, 05:09 PM

[quote=acarmelo1;3092783]if I tease those 3 for 8 points will I win 100% sure?[/quote]

Ok time to stop sniffing glue...nothing is 100% for sure except death...

collegedropout · 02-01-10, 05:10 PM

[quote=G's pks;3092957]

Originally posted by acarmelo1

if I tease those 3 for 8 points will I win 100% sure?[/quote] Ok time to stop sniffing glue...nothing is 100% for sure except death...

Couldn't say it any better. If it was 100% I wouldn't be here discussing it.

G's pks · 02-01-10, 05:12 PM

Good luck tonight... I hope this works out for you!

magynuck · 02-01-10, 05:17 PM

Dunder I do not know why we even try. It seems like the people as a whole do not want to win money. If they cannot understand that no betting system can work if the original pick is negative EV, then they have no hope. The people as a whole who make money generally do not give away too much and even when they do if it is not spoon fed most do not listen.

Dunder · 02-01-10, 05:36 PM

Originally posted by collegedropout

The data is verified. Hours upon hours of research. It is similar to Rich Allen, but different in cases. I worked with my economic stats professor on it. He had interest in sports and was willing to help me out. Lots of research. A lot of it from sportsinsights. I did not buy anything from anyone!

I am not familiar with Rich Allen but I am sure you are aware that winners have no need to sell information, indeed it is against their interest to do so.

If my understanding is correct you are laying -120 buying a half-point each time, doubling up on the first and second losses.

As such you need to hit at a rate of 54.54% to break even.

The most obvious comment is that buying a half point is counter productive. It costs you 10 cents, whereas it´s worth is an average of 8.2 cents off the values your system employs.

I will follow your progress and wish you well. I hope I am wrong but I don´t see anything here that hasn´t failed many times before.

Cougar Bait · 02-01-10, 06:29 PM

Have you only tried this with NBA? Was interested if it applies to college as well. I usually find value in dogs between 7 and 9 points and once it gets to double digits there tends to be a small amount of value in the chalk from 10-12.

smitch124 · 02-01-10, 06:34 PM

Dunder's apt questions are being ignored in this thread. It all really comes down to this:

1. If each individual play is +EV there is absolutely NO reason to chase them.

2. If each individual play is -EV no chase system will make ever them +EV, its as simple as that.

collegedropout · 02-01-10, 06:45 PM

Like I said you guys can doubt. I don't care one way or another. I have the results.

smitch124 · 02-01-10, 06:50 PM

Originally posted by collegedropout

Like I said you guys can doubt. I don't care one way or another. I have the results.

Collegedropout, you are completely missing the point. The point is that if this chase system is truly sucessful long term, that means that each pick in the chase is +EV and as a result you gain NOTHING by chasing them. It would be much easier on your heart to just bet each +EV play straight and you would win just as much in the long run.

Dunder · 02-01-10, 06:51 PM

Originally posted by smitch124

Dunder's apt questions are being ignored in this thread. It all really comes down to this:

1. If each individual play is +EV there is absolutely NO reason to chase them.

2. If each individual play is -EV no chase system will make ever them +EV, its as simple as that.

Alas Smitch, chase systems can and do work over a short period. If you martingale at roulette over 200 spins you have a 61% chance of coming out ahead. Over 20,000 spins however, the odds of being ahead are close to zero.

That is why the Morrisons of this world manage to sell their snake oil. Over the short term, they can show positive results.

I truly hope this kid doesn´t lose his shirt.

collegedropout · 02-01-10, 06:53 PM

Originally posted by smitch124

Collegedropout, you are completely missing the point. The point is that if this chase system is truly sucessful long term, that means that each pick in the chase is +EV and as a result you gain NOTHING by chasing them. It would be much easier on your heart to just bet each +EV play straight and you would win just as much in the long run.

You are absolutely right with this statement. I said that people do both, bet 3 games by doubling down or bet each game straight up. I am still monitoring the system and a change to betting each game straight up could be in the future. But as of now this is working and has been working very well.

I will continue to post the plays.

collegedropout · 02-01-10, 06:55 PM

Morrison and Rich Allen base all their BS off infinite bankrolls. I do not.

Cougar Bait · 02-01-10, 06:58 PM

Originally posted by Cougar Bait

Have you only tried this with NBA? Was interested if it applies to college as well. I usually find value in dogs between 7 and 9 points and once it gets to double digits there tends to be a small amount of value in the chalk from 10-12.

collegedropout · 02-01-10, 07:01 PM

College basketball do have some lucky numbers, but it is way too up and down. I do not bet on college hoops. I am good for a few wagers here and there come March