System

SamsNCharge99 · 02-01-10, 03:33 PM

just post the plays....IDC about the forumlas

acarmelo1 · 02-01-10, 03:37 PM

Originally posted by SamsNCharge99

just post the plays....IDC about the forumlas

Yeah we only need the plays!!!

freeVICK · 02-01-10, 03:39 PM

forget it boys. he is using one of those "theres no way you lose 3 in a row systems"

collegedropout · 02-01-10, 03:43 PM

No I am not using a "theres no way you lose 3 in a row systems". You are going to miss 3 in a row at times. But solid bankroll management will have you banking.

3 plays fit the system, however for my system you only use one...

Kings +12

Other two are...

Jazz -3.5
Hornets -1

I know people that wager on all of them. It might work for them. However I do not.

Dunder · 02-01-10, 03:47 PM

A chase system is a chase system no matter how you want to dress it up.
You will go broke, period.

collegedropout · 02-01-10, 03:50 PM

Don't use the system then. I am not begging you to do so.

collegedropout · 02-01-10, 03:51 PM

And actually, how will this system fail in your opinion?

Dunder · 02-01-10, 04:05 PM

Originally posted by collegedropout

And actually, how will this system fail in your opinion?

Any betting system, in the long run, is exactly as good or as bad as the plays that are made. If you are making good plays there is no need for a system, just grind out positive results. If you are making bad plays, the system will mask the results for a while, until you go on a 0-6 or 0-9 which results in a catastrophic loss.

Think of employing a system whilst playing roulette. Whether you play flat stakes, a modified chase or martingale, after one million spins it is a mathematical certainty that you will lose by almost exactly the house edge.

People who sell systems do so, because they need to mask the fact that the plays themselves are not +EV.

maersksealand · 02-01-10, 04:09 PM

Dude, there is no betting system to beat the bookies, PERIOD !

acarmelo1 · 02-01-10, 04:12 PM

Originally posted by freeVICK

forget it boys. he is using one of those "theres no way you lose 3 in a row systems"

lol

G's pks · 02-01-10, 04:15 PM

Well Dunder is a nice guy according to most...but he does try to come off as knowing everything... good luck with your system...I will watch for probably a month and agree it is not working...but at least I will give you a chance...

collegedropout · 02-01-10, 04:16 PM

The system is broken down to spreads that win. Favorites are 1, 4, 7 and you buy a half point each time. These teams win 55 to 59% of the time. Underdogs of 11, 12, 13 win 60% of the time. Therefore you know that you are going to be hitting around 55 to 60% of the games.

1st and Ten · 02-01-10, 04:16 PM

dwaechte · 02-01-10, 04:18 PM

lmao @ him posting a chase system after that long thread about his awesome "system".

A ghost or a troll, but an entertaining one atleast. Now fvck off buddy.

G's pks · 02-01-10, 04:18 PM

Originally posted by collegedropout

The system is broken down to spreads that win. Favorites are 1, 4, 7 and you buy a half point each time. These teams win 55 to 59% of the time. Underdogs of 11, 12, 13 win 60% of the time. Therefore you know that you are going to be hitting around 55 to 60% of the games.

Interesting how about line movement changing the original lines? Is your system based on opening or closing lines?

BatemanPatrickl · 02-01-10, 04:21 PM

How long has was this system tested? How large was the sample data?

collegedropout · 02-01-10, 04:21 PM

My cousin has worked in the offshore business for 5 years now and I can a lot of info from him. It is not based on opening lines or closing lines. It is based on what I call the "real line". When a team in the NBA is favored by 1, 4, or 7 points (whether on the road or not) you are going to win AT LEAST 55% of the time. That is if you bet on every game. Also you buy a point on 4 and 7. So the line is 3.5 and 6.5. Buying a half point increases your chances of winning a lot more than people think.

Road underdogs of 11, 11.5, 12, 12.5, 13, 13.5 win 60% of the time! If you bet just on these games you are going to hit 60% of the time.

These numbers are based on 10 to 15 years of data.

podunk · 02-01-10, 04:23 PM

good luck kid

Dunder · 02-01-10, 04:23 PM

Originally posted by collegedropout

The system is broken down to spreads that win. Favorites are 1, 4, 7 and you buy a half point each time. These teams win 55 to 59% of the time. Underdogs of 11, 12, 13 win 60% of the time. Therefore you know that you are going to be hitting around 55 to 60% of the games.

If this is the case, why is there any need for the chase (A, B, C) element? If these are winning plays (which they may well be historically), why not just bet them at flat stakes? What value is added by chasing?

G's pks · 02-01-10, 04:25 PM

Ok how are you coming up with "the real line"?

acarmelo1 · 02-01-10, 04:27 PM

you know what kid I will test your system with SBR points

collegedropout · 02-01-10, 04:28 PM

You chances of missing 3 in a row is around 5 to 8%. Therefore you have a 90%+ chance of hitting either Bet A, B, C. When you do miss a Bet C, it has some impact, but not much. Your stack is already built up nicely and you will rebound quickly. Two times I missed bet C and believe it or not in the weeks that I did, I still profited money.

collegedropout · 02-01-10, 04:30 PM

Originally posted by G's pks

Ok how are you coming up with "the real line"?

I just monitor it and believe it or not found out that the "real line" that I am looking for usually occurs are lunch time or so. Then you start seeing movements. Sometimes I don't get the real line til later in the evening. It's based on factors like public betting, how many bets on each game, and what my inside sources are saying. Also the line MUST match up across the board. If four sportsbooks have +11 and one has +10.5, it does not fit the system.

johncrud · 02-01-10, 04:30 PM

What does the system entails...

I am currently using a chasing system too..

acarmelo1 · 02-01-10, 04:32 PM

Kid please tell me which game I must bet today and what are the chase options

I dont understand your system XD

G's pks · 02-01-10, 04:33 PM

Post your real picks before the games... I will be one who agrees with you that you could win. But I do not agree with you dropping out of school young man!

acarmelo1 · 02-01-10, 04:34 PM

So I have this NBA [709] SACRAMENTO +12½-120 (B+½) 6.00 SBR / 5.00 SBR

acarmelo1 · 02-01-10, 04:35 PM

if I lose that one I need to be on the other 2? is that how it works?

Dunder · 02-01-10, 04:35 PM

Originally posted by collegedropout

You chances of missing 3 in a row is around 5 to 8%. Therefore you have a 90%+ chance of hitting either Bet A, B, C. When you do miss a Bet C, it has some impact, but not much. Your stack is already built up nicely and you will rebound quickly. Two times I missed bet C and believe it or not in the weeks that I did, I still profited money.

In the long run the results of your A, B, C versus flat stakes will be almost identical, Do you dispute that?

If you can prove (to yourself) mathematically that your plays have a positive expected value in their own right after accounting for juice and buying half points, you will win in the long run. If this is not the case then ultimately any system will come unstuck just like roulette and martingale.

collegedropout · 02-01-10, 04:37 PM

You can bet two different ways. Either doubling down or taking each game straight up. A lot of you will probably want each game straight up. So here are all the plays that fit for tonight...

Kings +12
Hornets -1
Jazz -3.5

Make sure you buy points when you can. I ALWAYS buy a 1/2 point. Increases winning by 4 to 6%

collegedropout · 02-01-10, 04:38 PM

acarmelo,

if you want to chase just take the kings tonight and only the kings. if you want to bet each game straight up, take all 3 games I listed.

dunder,

juice and buying points is factored in on how much you wager on the next game. At this time if you would be betting all of my games straight up you would be making more money. Sometimes it works out that way, sometimes it doesnt.

acarmelo1 · 02-01-10, 04:41 PM

This is were I dont understand

Kings game starts at 9.00PM EASTERN
if I lose this one how am I going to chase the next one if Hornest starts at 8:00PM and Jazz Starts at 9:00PM

acarmelo1 · 02-01-10, 04:42 PM

Originally posted by collegedropout

acarmelo,

if you want to chase just take the kings tonight and only the kings. if you want to bet each game straight up, take all 3 games I listed.

dunder,

juice and buying points is factored in on how much you wager on the next game. At this time if you would be betting all of my games straight up you would be making more money. Sometimes it works out that way, sometimes it doesnt.

oh so its simply a play

collegedropout · 02-01-10, 04:42 PM

You won't chase until tomorrow or when the next play is available. Kings is the strongest play. Thats why chasers take it over the other two.