Tips For Pre Season Football Betting

[jjgold]

1. Bet small
2. Know what minutes/qtrs QB's are playing
3. Bet good teams in 1st half
4. Bet only unders
5. Lean more to dogs if your betting the entire game.
6. 1st week stick to unders and not sides

[gummo]

Good info. Thanks.

[LargeMouthBass]

1. Bet small
2. Know what minutes/qtrs QB's are playing
3. Bet good teams in 1st half
4. Bet only unders
5. Lean more to dogs if your betting the entire game.
6. 1st week stick to unders and not sides

Why?

[zootiehead]

We are playing the under 34 -102 for sunday, jj.

[pags11]

here's my tip: don't bet the preseason games...

[jmayer21]

Always take unders in the second half, especially towards the end of the pre-season. This is because most teams are still looking to finalize second string on defense. Meanwhile, skill position players (i.e. QB, WR, HB) usually play less and less in the final week(s) of pre-season.

[LT Profits]

here's my tip: don't bet the preseason games...

And miss out on my 63% win rate in pre-season the last 5 years? And I am not talking a handful of games either (63-37).

I guess I am in the minority, but I find NFLX the easiest sport to beat. After all, at what other time or in what other sport do coaches often reveal their gameplans and player rotations BEFORE the game, and then stick to them 90% of the time?

An additional tip I would add to JJ's list is to bet against teams that plan to work on a weakness that week (i.e., a passing team that will run more or vice versa). You could also use this information to play the Under (team wants to work on running game) or the Over (quarterback battle where team wants both QB's to throw fairly often).

Also, you could just about bet any underdog of +4.5 points or more blindly (43-24, 64.2%), unless you have an avalanche of information telling you not to. NEVER bet a pre-season favorite of -4.5+.

[LT Profits]

Speaking of that "bet dogs +4.5 or more", we have a dilemna in Week 1. The only qualifying play as of now is the Colts +4.5. However, another angle I have had success with is playing against the defending Super Bowl Champ in pre season. I will wait for more info on this one.

[jjgold]

Tomorrow we kick it off, still looking at game but many guys will play very little, ,might pass.

[remmy358]

"i'm a business man, joey slats is a business man"

where's joey???

[TheOffshoreGambler]

You can get alot of info about playing time by reading the teams local paper. Most teams beat writers will know the whole schedule of snaps for each player.

[LT Profits]

Exactamundo Gambler!

shhh



Good luck to you.

[SBR_John]

My tried and true tested preseason theory:

ONLY bet dogs on the Moneyline at +130 or higher. Pass all others.

[Omnivorous Frog]

How easy is NFL ex? The best football handicapper/plagiarist ever, Ace Ace showed a profit for the preseason, last year, while getting blasted regular season and losing over 100% of his bankroll for NCAA. If that mental midget can beat it, anyone can.

There is some good info in this thread, but a lot left out.

[Omnivorous Frog]

1. Bet small
2. Know what minutes/qtrs QB's are playing
3. Bet good teams in 1st half
4. Bet only unders
5. Lean more to dogs if your betting the entire game.
6. 1st week stick to unders and not sides

1. Incorrect. Same as biggest bet ever on super bowl squares. Sometimes your best values of the entire season are preseason, hence, (Tofu) biggest bets.

2. QB rotation is imperative. Also depth, quality of depth.

3. Incorrect. Good team may be playing scrubs from opening whistle. May be a lay down game, as many good teams cover nothing in preseason, and good is very subjective. Bad teams often do good in preseason.

4. Incorrect. First week or so when defenses are ahead of offenses. But after that it is coaches gameplan, what they will be working on, and if they need to work passing with backup teams and or experimenting with defensive guys that might be cut Monday. Seen many a under blown up in 4Q where a normal game would have stayed under and they are still working on gameplan vs eating up clock.

5. Maybe. Each game is an individual spot. Plus, the lines are very conservative vs. regular season. Good teams might be the dog, but don't care. Dangerous advice here.

6. Generally speaking, first week unders are usually good. But those totals are low. Couple of bad breaks and poof. Not much room for errors. I'll take a side first week if the coach says, we are going to do what we can to win this game.

[Actionbrett]

Also, you could just about bet any underdog of +4.5 points or more blindly (43-24, 64.2%)

This went 5-5 ATS LY, how far backtracked is your record?

[LT Profits]

1. Incorrect. Same as biggest bet ever on super bowl squares. Sometimes your best values of the entire season are preseason, hence, (Tofu) biggest bets.

2. QB rotation is imperative. Also depth, quality of depth.

3. Incorrect. Good team may be playing scrubs from opening whistle. May be a lay down game, as many good teams cover nothing in preseason, and good is very subjective. Bad teams often do good in preseason.

4. Incorrect. First week or so when defenses are ahead of offenses. But after that it is coaches gameplan, what they will be working on, and if they need to work passing with backup teams and or experimenting with defensive guys that might be cut Monday. Seen many a under blown up in 4Q where a normal game would have stayed under and they are still working on gameplan vs eating up clock.

5. Maybe. Each game is an individual spot. Plus, the lines are very conservative vs. regular season. Good teams might be the dog, but don't care. Dangerous advice here.

6. Generally speaking, first week unders are usually good. But those totals are low. Couple of bad breaks and poof. Not much room for errors. I'll take a side first week if the coach says, we are going to do what we can to win this game.

Excellent post here frog. The only point I mildly disagree with is #5, as indeed at least 80% of my NFLX plays are on dogs. One noteable exception was the Redskins in Spurrier's first year, when they won their first three games 976-12 (LOL).

[bigboydan]

You can get alot of info about playing time by reading the teams local paper. Most teams beat writers will know the whole schedule of snaps for each player.

I was posting all that info last year as I found it in the locals cities newspapers. I'll probably be doing it once again this year too, so you might wanna stay tuned

[Omnivorous Frog]

Yes, there is a maybe there, and I agree, I would be heavily weighted with dogs, maybe same as you or even higher. But that is open for cross examination as there are few big dogs. Someone said there were only 10 games with a spread of 4.5 or higher. A better study may be how effective was taking the points vs. the money line. Are there a lot of win but no covers on those smallish spreads?

[Omnivorous Frog]

I was posting all that info last year as I found it in the locals cities newspapers. I'll probably be doing it once again this year too, so you might wanna stay tuned

I'll take that info all day long. Most of the coaches tell it straight to the locals as they want to keep the fans trust. In the regular season they may be misdirecting. But if a coach says, we work on backups and certain areas of playcalling this week to focus on winning at home next week, it is worth noting. QB rotations, how many Q's or series each QB may see. That is gold, but no jj involved.

[ShamsWoof10]

1. Incorrect. Same as biggest bet ever on super bowl squares. Sometimes your best values of the entire season are preseason, hence, (Tofu) biggest bets.

2. QB rotation is imperative. Also depth, quality of depth.

3. Incorrect. Good team may be playing scrubs from opening whistle. May be a lay down game, as many good teams cover nothing in preseason, and good is very subjective. Bad teams often do good in preseason.

4. Incorrect. First week or so when defenses are ahead of offenses. But after that it is coaches gameplan, what they will be working on, and if they need to work passing with backup teams and or experimenting with defensive guys that might be cut Monday. Seen many a under blown up in 4Q where a normal game would have stayed under and they are still working on gameplan vs eating up clock.

5. Maybe. Each game is an individual spot. Plus, the lines are very conservative vs. regular season. Good teams might be the dog, but don't care. Dangerous advice here.

6. Generally speaking, first week unders are usually good. But those totals are low. Couple of bad breaks and poof. Not much room for errors. I'll take a side first week if the coach says, we are going to do what we can to win this game.

In general I agree with this but... a lot of this is already priced into the spread... Enough..? I dunno but I have no doubts that the line makers price all of this in the line...

[LT Profits]

I would say "intentionally not enough", if that makes any sense, because the books know they could hook a lot of squares that bet these games with regular season logic.

[Omnivorous Frog]

Believe it or not the numbers in the preseason are the worst of the year. I could start another thread why. The only thing factored in is the teams don't really care, not many numbers beyond 3, and that they don't try to score, many totals 36 or less. So if you find a team that wants to win, and tries to score, you may have some value.

[ShamsWoof10]

if you find a team that wants to win, and tries to score, you may have some value.

I would assume this is also priced in if it's something before the start of a game... ALL THIS INFO. and more is available to the lines makers... If they use it or not is another story...

[Omnivorous Frog]

No, the numbers come out before this information is even known. You will also tend to see longer, faster and deeper moves in the preseason once this news does hit the board.

[austintx05]

here's my tip: don't bet the preseason games...

best advice in this thread

[Omnivorous Frog]

Yes, most squares wait for the regular season.

[Scorpion]

I think one of the most important things is knowing how the coaches approach these games. Some are very serious and some like Marv Levy dont give a ****!

[dodif]

here's my tip: don't bet the preseason games...

ignorant

preseason is a goldmine to a professional

[Omnivorous Frog]

That is my thinking also, but some feel differently. Let's just say more opportunities present themselves for certain investors in preseason football, than at any other time.

[Omnivorous Frog]

PITTSBURGH -
(08/04 09:01am) Offensive coordinator Bruce Arians said some of the starters on offense will
only play "a series or two" and none will play more than a quarter. After Ben Roethlisberger
makes a brief appearance at quarterback, Charlie Batch will follow, then Brian St. Pierre and
then Bryan Randall.

Always good to know.

Best Wishes...OF

[Dark Horse]

Copied from Jim Feist's website

NFL Preseason Handicapping
The process of handicapping preseason NFL footall is not quite as simple as it used to be. Just a few short seasons ago, you'd get almost all you needed from reading a coach's plan in the local newspaper. But if you've been watching most of the games over the past couple of seasons, you've seen the following:

*The top priority for all teams is to avoid injuries! Star players aren't on the field nearly as often as they used to be, and the plays that are run have a low risk for serious contact.

*The second top priority is to get the timing down between quarterbacks and receivers. They do this all the time in practice anyway. The coaches want to see that it's working at game speed as well. Once they see that, the passing game basically disappears. Teams don't want their receivers or quarterbacks exposed to big hits.

*The third priority is running the clock. This fits with avoiding injuries. The fewer number of plays, the fewer chances for injury. But even with the backups now, you see offenses focused on moving the chains and running the clock rather than storming their way into the end zone. In a sense, ball control offense has become a style of defense, and teams are practicing their defense.

Folks, this isn't even football as we know it any more! It's as if there's a gentleman's agreement NOT to play football in the exhibition season. The players agree to it because they don't want to get hurt. Coaches agree to it because they're conservative go begin with. I don't think the average fan has truly noticed it yet. They're just so excited to watch games again that they don't realize what's really going on.

Well, I noticed what's going on! And it greatly affected my handicapping approach.

*I focus on Unders because the games have gotten so low scoring. There are certain coaches that are just automatic Unders in the preseason unless there are defensive touchdowns or the refs keep handing away free pass interference penalties. These coaches are particularly strong on Unders in the second halves of games because they just want to get things over with and go home. If you can play halftime lines, look to take advantage this year.

*I focus on the handful of coaches who have established that scoreboard results still matter to them. These guys will usually cover three of their four games. A 2-2 ATS record is a worst-case scenario. So, backing them means you're risking the vigorish in a split record to make some good money. You have to look at the month as a four-game hunk with these teams. Don't try to cherry-pick the wins. Let the tendency play out however it's going to play out, and count up the profit at the end of the month.

*I focus on the quality of the third-team quarterback. Winners in August typically come down to this level of quarterback. In the past, it was the #2 guy that you focused on. The starters would get their timing down, then the backups would come in and determine who won the game. Now, the starters get their timing down, the #2 guy works on running the clock, and it's up to the #3 guy to win the game. I can tell you some local bettors took a bath last year when #2 guys that they loved to bet on were kept on a tight leash by their coaches. If you can find a handful of #3 guys who like to go for the glory, they'll take you to the winner's circle.

*I allow myself the luxury of passing many of the games. This is the toughest thing for the general public to do, but the easiest thing for professional wagerers to do. In past years, there were really a lot of edges to exploit in preseason games. It wouldn't be surprising for me to have more team side action in a preseason weekend than a regular season weekend in the NFL. Those days are over. Now it's a matter of emphasizing Unders, and finding the few games each weekend where either a head coach or a third string quarterback is going to sway the equation my way.

As a fan, I'm disappointed with this turn of events. Sure, preseason football has always been less entertaining than the regular season. But there would typically be a few games each week that turned into exciting shootouts when the backups went bombs away on each other. That just doesn't happen much any more. Games are ending 16-13 because both teams are running clock and settling for field goals. Worse, many games are even lower scoring because the teams are just trading punts!

As a handicapper, my percentage hasn't changed at all. You take what they give you. Right now, you're going to make money with Unders, particularly if you can play halftime lines in front of dead second halves.

It won't be fun to watch unless you're a timekeeper with a plane to catch. But preseason football will always be profitable for handicappers who can stay at least one step ahead of the oddsmakers!

[Omnivorous Frog]

Very nice article, slightly generalized, but agree with most. Like in that Pitt/NO game, you got two guys after Batch with close to no experience. Also, some coaches will not play those guys, but some will. So you may have a decent 2nd stringer late in the game vs. a 3rd and 4th. This can be especially strong with the right score and the 2H lines not jaded out because of score.

[LT Profits]

This went 5-5 ATS LY, how far backtracked is your record?

I'm sorry Actionbrett, this post is so short relative to the others in here that I totally missed it when skimming this thread.

I have been tracking this manualy, and if memory serves me I started in 2000.

[Omnivorous Frog]

manually=charcoal marks on the wall in your cave?