Tips For Pre Season Football Betting

Scorpion · 08-04-07, 08:31 PM

Originally posted by Omnivorous Frog

Very nice article, slightly generalized, but agree with most. Like in that Pitt/NO game, you got two guys after Batch with close to no experience. Also, some coaches will not play those guys, but some will. So you may have a decent 2nd stringer late in the game vs. a 3rd and 4th. This can be especially strong with the right score and the 2H lines not jaded out because of score.

Actually St Pierre had some experience, he played vs th Cowboys and Parcells 2-3 yrs ago and threw the game winning TD pass late in the 4th qtr at home!

Omnivorous Frog · 08-04-07, 09:10 PM

I did not know that. Has he passed the ball or taken a snap in the NFL Regular season ever? I do not recall ever seeing him on the field, anywhere ever.

Ganchrow · 08-05-07, 10:52 AM

Originally posted by Actionbrett

This went 5-5 ATS LY, how far backtracked is your record?

Originally posted by LT Profits

Also, you could just about bet any underdog of +4.5 points or more blindly (43-24, 64.2%)

LT's 43-24 record stretches back as far as the 2002 pre-season.

Using covers.com pre-season data:

From the 1996 pre-season through the 2006 pre-season, underdogs of 4½ or more points went 116-80-1 ATS for a win percentage (conditioned on not pushing) of 59.18%.

From the 1996 pre-season through the 2001 pre-season (the nominally out-of-sample period not covered by LT), underdogs of 4½ or more points went 73-56-1 ATS for a win percentage (conditioned on not pushing) of 56.59%.