Originally posted by BatemanPatrickl
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Good example... I have been into that market with my helmets and I can tell you that in 98' Marino's auto cost me WHOLESALE $125 now it's $275 but this can reverse quickly as it is an elastic product...Comment -
We once had a wonderful thing called the NHS and on that you could get dental work done,now most places are private so now you have to pay an arm and a leg to get your gnashers done.Originally posted by BatemanPatricklLMFAO...
Someone said lack of dental insurance and lack of dentists; also heard the water does not contain fluoride?
what does LMFAO mean?Comment -
Laughing my fing a$$ off...Originally posted by vanmanComment -
mate
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Do people still smoke fags in London?Originally posted by vanman mateComment -
Smoking ban came into effect on july 1,about bloody time fed up of coming home from the pub smelling like i`d smoked 100 fags.Comment -
YES! I knew people in the UK still smoked fags...Originally posted by vanman
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LMFAOOriginally posted by BatemanPatricklYES! I knew people in the UK still smoked fags...Comment -
That is a bit of a myth put about by the VI's (Vested Interests) brigade.Originally posted by vanman
There are loads of newbuild unsold flats around the UK. Where I live they are building tons of the things, & guess what (Despite reducing their prices recently)they ain't selling much anymore
The UK crash will start with these newbuild flats & a domino effect will follow through to other properties as Interest Rates continue to rise & a lot of buyers in the last couple years on fixed rate mortgages suddenly find their deals ending & they are suddenly exposed to the newly inflated Mortgage rate & new monthly payments rates 40% higher (Or so) then before
Don't forget also that last time around we did not have the 'Buy To Let' punters. When prices start to fall a lot of these types will panic & try to sell or be forced to sell as they can't afford to service their debt anymore leading to a flood of properties on the market.
They said it would not happen before in 89 & it did, 'great crash 2' will be even bigger leading the UK into a major recession .(All IMO of course)Comment -
hmm...it sounds like the states as well. let's see which side of the pond will crash first. even odds?Originally posted by LGBootsThat is a bit of a myth put about by the VI's (Vested Interests) brigade.
There are loads of newbuild unsold flats around the UK. Where I live they are building tons of the things, & guess what (Despite reducing their prices recently)they ain't selling much anymore
The UK crash will start with these newbuild flats & a domino effect will follow through to other properties as Interest Rates continue to rise & a lot of buyers in the last couple years on fixed rate mortgages suddenly find their deals ending & they are suddenly exposed to the newly inflated Mortgage rate & new monthly payments rates 40% higher (Or so) then before
They said it would not happen before in 89 & it did, 'great crash 2' will be even bigger leading the UK into a major recession .(All IMO of course)Comment -
AGREE 100% but did you mean variable rates instead of fixed..? Either way even the home owner who has paid is is almost done paying off his home will not be pleased when his life long investment gets cut in half... This is a pychological effect that will NOT go unnoticed...Originally posted by LGBootsThat is a bit of a myth put about by the VI's (Vested Interests) brigade.
There are loads of newbuild unsold flats around the UK. Where I live they are building tons of the things, & guess what (Despite reducing their prices recently)they ain't selling much anymore
The UK crash will start with these newbuild flats & a domino effect will follow through to other properties as Interest Rates continue to rise & a lot of buyers in the last couple years on fixed rate mortgages suddenly find their deals ending & they are suddenly exposed to the newly inflated Mortgage rate & new monthly payments rates 40% higher (Or so) then before
Don't forget also that last time around we did not have the 'Buy To Let' punters. When prices start to fall a lot of these types will panic & try to sell or be forced to sell as they can't afford to service their debt anymore leading to a flood of properties on the market.
They said it would not happen before in 89 & it did, 'great crash 2' will be even bigger leading the UK into a major recession .(All IMO of course)
I always ask people this question about their house and it's my favorite one to prove my point... So much so that I am going to start a thread about it... I don't start many so what the hell...Comment -
Damn,I better spell check when I post after I had a 12 pack under my belt when I get into a fat finger keyboard mode.Keynesian economics! Did I spell it wrong when I was on my anti socialist rant?
Anyway, vote for Tancredo or Ron Paul if you don't want socialism.I can't take 8 years of Hillary being an authority we know what's best for you figure that talks down to us like she's the parent and we are 1st graders.Comment -
Still selling round here not as fast as they were but still selling at a good rate.I know i`m building them.Originally posted by LGBootsThat is a bit of a myth put about by the VI's (Vested Interests) brigade.
There are loads of newbuild unsold flats around the UK. Where I live they are building tons of the things, & guess what (Despite reducing their prices recently)they ain't selling much anymore
The UK crash will start with these newbuild flats & a domino effect will follow through to other properties as Interest Rates continue to rise & a lot of buyers in the last couple years on fixed rate mortgages suddenly find their deals ending & they are suddenly exposed to the newly inflated Mortgage rate & new monthly payments rates 40% higher (Or so) then before
Don't forget also that last time around we did not have the 'Buy To Let' punters. When prices start to fall a lot of these types will panic & try to sell or be forced to sell as they can't afford to service their debt anymore leading to a flood of properties on the market.
They said it would not happen before in 89 & it did, 'great crash 2' will be even bigger leading the UK into a major recession .(All IMO of course)Comment -
Where are you..? Not address you know what I mean... To me your opinion definately has some value if you build them... if you don't mind keep us up to date on the overall housing environment around you..(homes for sale, building costs, home prices, demand, etc.)Originally posted by vanman
Actually duuuuh you're in the UK my bad... Hell that's even better... I think it happens there first anyway...Comment -
Here is an interesting website to show how sentiment is changing in the UK.
A few months ago a site like this would not have existed as the thought of having to reduce the selling price of your property would have been laughed at by most people
Putting my postcode into it I come up with pricecuts of up to 22% in the last couple of months & plenty of reductions of 5% - 9% & is this is just the start (IMO)
When you have consumer debt of $27 Trillion in the UK you just know that something has to give
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I didn't want to start a new thread for housing but this is a bit higher then I even thought geeez....
It's going to take a while to complete the slide but this is one hell of a start...
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Keynesian economics!
Keynesian economics=let's not really produce anything,,,create a zillion shrinking worthless dollars out of thin air-create industries out of thin air like medicine where old people and young alike who are on government entitlement programs are turned into pill popping hypochondriacs and lets pay nurses-aids-doctors-therapists-psychiatrists-pharmacists-convalecent care takers-nursing home bus drivers.etc.etc.etc.etc.etc.etc.and they will take the big paychecks and spend money at Wall Mart and JC Penney and buy cars.etc.
Then lets bloat colleges where even morons who can't read can get a fluff degree in rap philosophy.Then the little hoodlum can become a state paid poet lauriate or whatever they are called.Let's just make it where millions of people work at colleges teaching pure crap to idiots.We have just created another new industry where the people in that bogus industry go out and buy cars and shop at Wall Mart.etc.
Then lets always get into wars and conflicts that we shouldn't be in and spend hundreds of billions of dollars on military spending where waste and graft make up 50% of the money spent.We just created an industry out of thin air.
Look at the engagement section in your big city newspaper.Ask yourself when you read all of their occupations if these people produce anything or work in the private sector free market capitalist society.You will find that 80% of these people are working in some job directly for the government or indirectly at a makework job.Even look at people who work in constrction.Most are working on socialistic public works projects that are white elephants that shouldn't even be made.Light rail,city aquariums,big digs in Boston,tax payer subsidised stadiums and arenas,government buildings.etc.etc.
We have just created a make believe slight of hand,smoke and mirrors false, Keynesian economy.Sure the stock market is flying high.Everyone is making plenty of printed fiat currency printed out of thin air to pay them for doing government makework where they have allot of money to consume worthless junk they don't need and to borrow more money and go into debt.Comment -
Before I read the rest of the post, can you tell me what Keynesian economics actually is? And, more specifically, can you advise me what it has got to do with the US economy since it's a school of thought which has been dismissed quite a long time ago.Originally posted by BrentCrudeOriginally posted by pags11Originally posted by BuddyBearOriginally posted by curiousComment -
This is simple economics.Originally posted by LGBootsA few months ago a site like this would not have existed as the thought of having to reduce the selling price of your property would have been laughed at by most people
http://www.propertysnake.co.uk/
Assume I had a house worth $100K in June and I put it on the market at $150K. I then get no viewings and reduce the price to $101K and I sell it exactly one month later. You'd no doubt say that prices must have fallen 33% within the month. However, the prices have actually risen by 1%.
If you get to a stage when you have to reduce the asking price of a property by 22% then it means that it is priced too high in the first place.
Whereas the Nationwide is claiming that house price inflation is running at 11.1%.Originally posted by LGBootsPutting my postcode into it I come up with pricecuts of up to 22% in the last couple of months & plenty of reductions of 5% - 9% & is this is just the start (IMO)
As above, you're comparing a few overpriced properties and trying to extrapolate it to mean that the whole market is crashing.
Where is your information coming from?Originally posted by LGBootsWhen you have consumer debt of $27 Trillion in the UK you just know that something has to give
UK Nominal GDP was $2.4 trillion in 2006 - how are you getting consumer debt of $27 trillion?Originally posted by pags11Originally posted by BuddyBearOriginally posted by curiousComment -
Taco I think you should consider his theory more of an overall thought then one to apply to specific numbers... I for one not only agree with it but it's quite obvious... Just a few examples and they're are 100's....
Let's just say you and I run the world and we have all these people who we care about (like the good little politicians we are) and want to do what's best for the sake of the health of society... Well we banned the following: Alcohol, tabacco, street drugs, and fast food... Now think of what would happen... Major job loss world wide and what would all these people do all day... they can't all bet like us... I won't even go into what would happen if you and I discovered life extension technology and gave it to everyone who isn't doing anything but having kids and live much longer...
Fast food and an unhealthy life style creates a bigger market for the pharma.'s so don't forget how it will effect them...
What would happen..?
Don't think of this in terms of money think of it in terms of any species in a fixed area... A bit off track but if an organism doubled every minute in a sealed jar and the jar was half way full at 11:59.. At 12:00 it would be totally full.. What would happen at 12:01..? The people who ultimately call the real shots understand this...Comment -
The theory of who? I replied to two posts. Both were claiming incorrect information. If you want to reply on their behalf regarding Keynesian economics and the state of the UK housing market then please feel free.Originally posted by ShamsWoof10Originally posted by pags11Originally posted by BuddyBearOriginally posted by curiousComment -
I think BCrude's example and my response (agreement) to it should not be catagorized as economics... Excuse me for not making it clear that it's "Society Managment" we are talking about... Economics deals with money and in his example of having people dig for nothing was as he said to keep them busy... Again I feel this belongs under "Society Management" not Economics.. I think housing here and there is toast.. I have been saying it since 02' and now that it has started I haven't seen anythng to change my opinion...Originally posted by tacomax
I read some of this guy's stuff here and there he's like a Buffett..
Russell on Housing -- Wall Street may be able to bail out of the subprime mortgages that certain outfits stupidly loaded up with. But who's going to bail out the 'little people" who took on the mortgages and at the same time had no way of making the payments? The answer is that nobody is going to bail out the little people. They're on their own.
So what's going to happen? There's a huge split between the wealthy home owner and the little guy who's living on the edge or just below it. The wealthy, even if they make a mistake, have money enough to allow them to sit with their mistakes. Not so for the little guy who can't hold on -- he'll be forced to sell.
This, in time, will crack the whole pricing structure of the housing industry. As inventories build, and as an increasing number of home-owners or home-speculators get pressed to the wall, prices will start to give. When prices sink at the margin, it's only a matter of time before the price-structure of the whole housing industry sinks lower. This is all the more true, since housing today is far, far above trend.
At any rate, that's the way I see the housing picture. And the work-out is going to take time, a lot of time.Comment -
Economics has nothing to do with money. It is about the allocation of scare resources. Money, although a very popular medium of exchange, doesn't come into it.Originally posted by ShamsWoof10
Is "toast"? You really think the housing market it going to collapse and go the way of the dinosaurs?Originally posted by ShamsWoof10
He's not saying anything revolutionary. He's essentially saying that "prices will start to give". When the price of anything (be it houses or stocks) rise over time, it is very common to see an adjustment. And if prices do fall, they'll reach a trough and they will start to increase from that new equilibrium. Nothing he is saying is akin to the housing market being "toast". It's more of a comparison of buying tech stocks just as the bubble started to burst a few years ago. Stocks fell a lot, but are they "toast"? No. They fell to reach a new equilibrium and have risen from that.Originally posted by ShamsWoof10Originally posted by pags11Originally posted by BuddyBearOriginally posted by curiousComment -
FHA loans,Fanny Maes,guarantee student loan pell grants,Hud etc.
In a true free markey economy the government would not get in the business of handing out loans to get unworthy creditors on shakey ground into houses and colleges.All the FHA's,Fanny Maes and government backed student loans are just a way to get the economy rolling through artificial means.For Christ's sake,they run ads for all this stuff how easy it is to get money on all the dog patch underclass t.v.shows like Jerry Springer and Maury Povich along with Gary Coleman's payday loan ads,bail bond ads and class action lawyer ads for having a pimple on your ass because of faulty Charmin toilet paper.
The government encourages retards to take on debt just like the mafia does.It makes the whole economy roll when you get people squandering money they can never pay back and the government doesn't care if they back the loans,they just print more worthless cash and raise taxes and fees for the honest people who pay their debt.The same goes for idiots that run up credit card debt paying off 20% interest.We have a big huge class of wage slave indentured servants in this country but why would Bush or the democrats care about that?
In my neck of the woods decent sized cities are bigtime in the red because the mayors and city councilors who were union members-sympathizers or afraid of their strong arm tactics gave the municipal workers bloated sweetheart contracts.No deductible health insurance was the killer where these employees and their 8 bastards,stepchildren,gay lovers and wife of the month would go to the clinic for every little mallody.The politicians that award these gifts to their union cronies will be long gone when the shit hits the fan where the city is in debt up to it's eyeballs so what do they care.It's run like Goodfella's going in partnership with the bar they ran into the ground,looted and finally torched when all credit was gone and the original owner was bankrupted at the tax payers expense.The private sector over taxedand over regulated tax payer is always left holding the bag.
Just think of how much easier it would be to buy things like houses and pay for college educations if we had a bare bones government that just stuck to providing essentials and taxed little and regulated just the stuff they should regulate a wee bit.Sure,maybe the landscape wouldn't be full of speculative ventures and where construction is building useless public works projects and people are building houses that are too big for them with government backed loans but at least there wouldn't be as much indebtedness.
Why doesn's Al Gore Mr.global warming ever say that the democrats are at fault for global warming because they give government money away to build too many and too big of houses and far to many public works projects.That's probably the biggest contributor to polution.Comment -
At last someone who knows what their talking about.Originally posted by tacomax
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Originally posted by LGBoots'nuff said.Originally posted by vanman
As someone, I think LGBoots, have pointed out, when people spend more than what they have, it's only a question of time until the party ends. This applies to Britain, US, Canada and many other developed nations with their currently existing bubbles. The party may not end this year but it will reach a critical point where it will start a significant decline and house prices will return to their mean one way or another (crashing prices or inflation).
PedroComment -
Yeah I can see your point on the issue of money being a median so would you also include the technology (the use of them) as well..? Regardless I never said it was economics per say... my point is the idea of having people dig for nothing to keep them busy (going on today) should be in another catagory "Society Management" not economics... You can use economics to "Manage Society" though...Originally posted by tacomax
As far as housing goes.. relative to the boom we have had since the 90's.. yes I think it's toast and I agree with Russell that this will take time to play out... I am not saying back to the stone age either and even if it did go back that far that is not what's really going to be the problem... What everyone discounts is the reaction of the people... People don't think they can lose in housing for some reason... When people lose money and a lot of it they react irrationally... People will take someone's life or their own over money.... A LOT more people are in housing then were in the tech. market in the late 90's and this will be much worse... To boot they won't be able to just walk away either in the US with the new banckruptcy laws here... Let's say you buy a million dollar home which gets forclosed for the bank to sell in a market where prices are falling... Well if they can't sell the house for what you owe ..you still owe the balance with interest to boot and no house to show for it...
Just to briefly go over your tech burst example... If you are talking about the 2000 burst ...umm yeah that was toast.. The NASDAQ goes from 5K+ to under 1K within two years... You don't call that toast...? Don't translate it into "the world has ended" but it was toast... I know it has recovered some but how many would you say got in at the 2,500 mark..?(NASDAQ for example) Most of the public gets in at or near the top and hang on because they don't think they can lose... Even if it goes back to 5K by say 2010.. They still lost their ass because in 10 years it looks like they are even but relative to inflation they are not even close and if you look at M3 we have had major inflation since 2000... OOOPS my bad you can't look at the M3 for the US anymore they clasified it last year (March 30th) I wonder why...?Comment
