Parlay or Teaser (which one is more of a sucker bet)

[Santo]

rjp,

It is simple common sense. At the traditional 13/5 odds, the breakeven point on parlays is 27.8%. A 54% handicapper can be expected to hit a 2-team parlay 29.2% of the time (.54^2), thus giving him an edge on this so-called "sucker" bet.

However, on 2-team 6-point teasers where you are laying 5/6, the breakeven point is 55.6%. Even if you could hit 70% of your individual games with the 6-point adjustment, which I maintain is impossible to sustain long-term, you would only hit 49% of the teasers (.70^2).

As I said, read the books. The data in your latter argument is inherently flawed.

[LT Profits]

Santo,

What do you mean? This is basic math, not rocket science. What exactly is off in my presentation of mathematical fact? Not trying to be nasty, but it just seems so obvious to me, especially since I have built a nice bankroll utilizing round robins over the years.

[raiders72002]

It is simple common sense. At the traditional 13/5 odds, the breakeven point on parlays is 27.8%. A 54% handicapper can be expected to hit a 2-team parlay 29.2% of the time (.54^2), thus giving him an edge on this so-called "sucker" bet.

However, on 2-team 6-point teasers where you are laying 5/6, the breakeven point is 55.6%. Even if you could hit 70% of your individual games with the 6-point adjustment, which I maintain is impossible to sustain long-term, you would only hit 49% of the teasers (.70^2).

You are saying that it's easy to hit 54% on straight plays yet 49% of teasers is almost impossible to hit.

If you can win 54% of your games, which is almost impossible for 99% of the posters on this board, then you can maximize profits by playing parlays but you can still make a great living hitting 54% straight plays.

It's much easier to win playing teasers and you shouldn't pay -120 as in your example.

[LT Profits]

raiders,

I never said hitting 54% is easy, but it is very much attainable, and a lot of pros hit at an even higher rate. Now it may be "easier" to hit teasers, but the key is how often the additional points come in to play. More often than not, you would have hit the parlay also, which is why it is key to do a side-by-side comparison of parlays and teasers using the same games.

My 49% figure was based on a 70% probabilty of hitting each individual leg of the teaser, which I still believe is high unless someone can show me concrete evidence of a subset with a long-term success rate of better than 70%. Unless I could see something like that, then I am convinced that parlays build your bankroll faster.