Comphrehensive Guide to Free Play
this thread is related to the topic on this thread:
the goal here is figure the best way to use your free plays (assuming parlay is an option for free plays).
I am using the follow 4 mlb 10 cents lines from 5dimes as the odds (easier for me to figure out the true bookie odds).
game1: -114 +104
game2: -112 +102
game3: -109 -101
game4: -108 -102
the goal here is to achieve the best guranteed return using parlays. so far, from the thread above, ganchrow has proposed a good method to use 3 team parlay to get guranteed payoff of about 81%. I think that is pretty close to the optium payoff but i am still curious about what is the optimal return.
if you bet both sides on any game, you are guranteed to get 47.5 dollars for every 100 usd...or 1 team parlay
if you cover all combiantions for a 2 team parlay, you need 4 bets. for 3 team, you need 8, 4 teams you need 16....it pretty much doubles as you go up one more team. or you can draw the pascal triangle and add the rows up.
anyways, i use 5dimes to figure out the odds for 2 team parlays. with the worst odds is (using -109 and -108) x2.69, and using the best odds is (using -101 and -102) x2.94. with the worst odds, you are guranteed 67.25% payoff with the worst odds, i think you can achieve better payoff with weights.
for 3 team parlay, see the other thread. the payoff with the worst odds is about 75% and it can achieve up to about 81% with weights.
for 4 team parlay, the payoff for the worst odds is (-114, -112, -109, -108) x12.12, and the payoff for the best odds is (-104, +102, -101, -102) x15.24. the payoff for the worst odds is 75.75%. i bet with optimal weights, it can go above 80%. not sure if it will be higher than 81%. that is too many numbers to crunch.
it seems that as number of teams go up, i can achieve higher guranteed return. i did some calculations, with 6-team parlay (64 different bets), i can achieve 86% guranteed return.
because we're dealing with free plays, so we want the payoff to be as large as possible. actually the more teams in a parlay the better. assuming there is no limit on parlays (6 team limit for pinnacle...or was it 8...i forgot. for 5 dimes i have not hit a limit yet...i tried a 10 teamer with x1028 odds...not even sure there is a limit on max number of teams), and there are enough games with 10 cents lines. then the best strategy is take as many team as possible in a huge parlay combination to get a guranteed return of close to 90%. according to my calculation, the asymptote payoff is 90% because the 10 cents juice. so the goal is to achieve 89.99% payoff with parlay combinations. but realistically, i think the best way to go about this is to do 8 combination of 3 teamers. if you love math, you could do 16 combination of 4 teamers...because you need to fireup your excel sheet to figure out the optimal weights (not all games are -105 -105). I think if you can achieve 81-85% that is pretty damn good. making 16 4 team parlay bets is a lot of work...not mention you might make a mistake.
for 5 teamer, you need 32 bets
for 6 teamer, you need 64 bets
for 7 teamer, you need 128 bets
for 8 teamer, unless you have a robot betting for you, not really woth the trouble.
i think this is a pretty comprehensive guide for how to use your free plays.
questions/comments/or you spot a mistake?
the goal here is figure the best way to use your free plays (assuming parlay is an option for free plays).
I am using the follow 4 mlb 10 cents lines from 5dimes as the odds (easier for me to figure out the true bookie odds).
game1: -114 +104
game2: -112 +102
game3: -109 -101
game4: -108 -102
the goal here is to achieve the best guranteed return using parlays. so far, from the thread above, ganchrow has proposed a good method to use 3 team parlay to get guranteed payoff of about 81%. I think that is pretty close to the optium payoff but i am still curious about what is the optimal return.
if you bet both sides on any game, you are guranteed to get 47.5 dollars for every 100 usd...or 1 team parlay
if you cover all combiantions for a 2 team parlay, you need 4 bets. for 3 team, you need 8, 4 teams you need 16....it pretty much doubles as you go up one more team. or you can draw the pascal triangle and add the rows up.
anyways, i use 5dimes to figure out the odds for 2 team parlays. with the worst odds is (using -109 and -108) x2.69, and using the best odds is (using -101 and -102) x2.94. with the worst odds, you are guranteed 67.25% payoff with the worst odds, i think you can achieve better payoff with weights.
for 3 team parlay, see the other thread. the payoff with the worst odds is about 75% and it can achieve up to about 81% with weights.
for 4 team parlay, the payoff for the worst odds is (-114, -112, -109, -108) x12.12, and the payoff for the best odds is (-104, +102, -101, -102) x15.24. the payoff for the worst odds is 75.75%. i bet with optimal weights, it can go above 80%. not sure if it will be higher than 81%. that is too many numbers to crunch.
it seems that as number of teams go up, i can achieve higher guranteed return. i did some calculations, with 6-team parlay (64 different bets), i can achieve 86% guranteed return.
because we're dealing with free plays, so we want the payoff to be as large as possible. actually the more teams in a parlay the better. assuming there is no limit on parlays (6 team limit for pinnacle...or was it 8...i forgot. for 5 dimes i have not hit a limit yet...i tried a 10 teamer with x1028 odds...not even sure there is a limit on max number of teams), and there are enough games with 10 cents lines. then the best strategy is take as many team as possible in a huge parlay combination to get a guranteed return of close to 90%. according to my calculation, the asymptote payoff is 90% because the 10 cents juice. so the goal is to achieve 89.99% payoff with parlay combinations. but realistically, i think the best way to go about this is to do 8 combination of 3 teamers. if you love math, you could do 16 combination of 4 teamers...because you need to fireup your excel sheet to figure out the optimal weights (not all games are -105 -105). I think if you can achieve 81-85% that is pretty damn good. making 16 4 team parlay bets is a lot of work...not mention you might make a mistake.
for 5 teamer, you need 32 bets
for 6 teamer, you need 64 bets
for 7 teamer, you need 128 bets
for 8 teamer, unless you have a robot betting for you, not really woth the trouble.
i think this is a pretty comprehensive guide for how to use your free plays.
questions/comments/or you spot a mistake?
