Sportsbetting has consumed most of my life over the past 5 years, pretty much everyday I am reading, writing, or thinking about sportsbetting constantly. I have maintained a good social life however though and still maintain time for the family/girlfriend and don't really consider myself addicted to it as I have successfully stopped for months at a time anytime money got tight. I am not writing this to educate you or to tell you this is how to do it, but just laying out there what I have learned and taking what you want from it. Over the years I have written many articles for websites and the local papers and have talked to a few people who really do this for a living out in Vegas and are very successful. I got into contact with them through my boss who had a brother in the buisness and when I gave him a call he was more then happy to put me in touch to help out my writing career.
Note: I fall into these traps still to this day myself so don't let me come off as an arrogant scumbag trying to tell you I know all.
Common Misconception #1- Sharp Action
The word gets thrown out so much among these forums and we all seem to "know" where the sharp money is and what the sharps are on. So my question is, if we know this why don't we just follow the sharp action everyday? Plain and simple because you don't know, you are guessing. Sometimes you guess wrong and sometimes you guess write. I see all this talk about all the sharps moving the LSU line yesterday and it couldn't be further from the truth. I have developed contacts over the years with a handful of semi-well known pros and I call them from time to time to do a day in the life of a pro piece for my local newspaper on big gambling days (SB, March Madness, New Years Day, etc). They have all denied me access to the bets they make before hand but gladly and honestly spill the beans on how they faired after the games. I was out with them writing a journal type piece last March Madness and they had a great day. I took a consensus of my 5 contacts I had about their Bowl wagers yesterday and the consensus: Auburn-5/NW-0, PSU-5/LSU-0, FSU-4/WVU-1, Oregon-4/OSU-1, Rose Bowl Under-3/Over-0, Florida-4/Cincy-0. Now raise your hand if you thought the pros were on Florida and PSU...me neither. The fact is we know nothing about what the pros are actually betting and line moves all sorts of different directions not always based on sharp action, sometimes they even go against the sharp on purpose if they think they may be looking to middle on a key number. So if you are going to bet and you don't know any sharps don't try to figure out what they are betting because it is simply a coin flip, they bet with the public/against the public but they read lines better then anyone and always know when and where to pounce to get that key number.
Common Misconception #2- Public %'s
How many times have we read, "OMG, 92% on the Vikings, give me the Browns!". Well Mr. Sharp how did that turn out? The facts are this, most of these numbers you read on SBRodds (no offense) and other free line services simply are not accurate at all usually. I have seen two different sites spitting out 40-50% differences on a certain side. I understand the thought process, "the public loses, so if I fade the public I will win". Not so fast, the public loses because of the vig and the odds they give and the fact that they buy points, take bad lines, do parlays, teasers, etc. Talking to a few guys in the buisness they say they never look at the %'s. They say it doesn't matter. They told me that "public" loses about 50% of the time and wins about 50% of the time on their straight bets. But, the books always win because you have people who will chase when they hit a cold streak, pony up huge amounts on bad number, and do the things I just listed above that shift the edge towards the casino. So next time you see a bullshit number spitting out 80% on Patriots 20% on Texans just know the odds on covering that game are still going to be 50-50 on a given side.
Common Misconception #3- "So if it is 50-50 to cover you can't win doing this?"
No, you can win. You can shift the advantage to your side by knowing these teams as well as the books do and capitalizing by taking the best numbers with the best odds and not falling into the death traps that most losing gamblers do. A direct quote in my March 09' column from one of the pros: "The common person who knows a good amount about a given sport and all the teams can hit at a 60% clip in that sport fairly easily. It is just extremley hard for the common man to stay within himself, continue to stick to his guns, and not parlay, tease, buy hooks, play bad number, and all the other sucker plays that swing your 60% into the casinos favor." Seems logical if you think about it. I know in the NFL I am capable of hitting 60% over a year but I give some back on halftime plays, quarter plays, teasers, etc. Not to mention varying bet sizes which leads me to my next point.
Common Misconception #4- Go Big on a Play You Feel Strongly About
I am one of the bigger offenders of this. I don't really beleive in flat betting but everyone I have talked to insists this is the way to do it. Every pro bettor I talked to bets the same % of their total bankroll on a given play in a given day, however they will sometimes add on to the play if it moves there way. Example, one of my pros when I wrote an article on the first NFL Sunday he told me he had Washington Redskins +6 for his standard bet but later in the day when +6.5 became available he added the same amount onto that number as 6 is considered a key number in football. How many times have we been down 2 units on the day but went 5-3 but lost our two big bets? I know it hurts when you know a team is going to win and you don't put a ton down on it but they insist to me this is the right way to do it because we should only be betting the games we feel strongly about.
Common Misconception #5- Betting A Lot of Games is a Bad Thing
I see these people on this forum who think they are sharp and all and go into someones thread and laugh that they take a ton of games. Well this morning I asked my pros how many bowl games have they not wagered on so far. The responses, 4, 0, 1, 3, 2. They said they feel they can find the edge in the game and have the confidence in themselves to turn that profit. But suggested if you don't feel confident or can't crack a game you need to pass. I found that very interesting to me. I always thought the pros took one or two games a day but they said to me the numbers are so volatile on bowl games that they can find value by kickoff based on the line moving and eventually reaching the number they want to play. Makes sense I guess.
Common Misconception #6- Sucker Bets
People still parlay, tease, buy points, play props, play halves, play quarters, play any bet they put out. Well the books wouldn't put these out if they werent in there favor, and no you aren't good at teasers. These bets all seem easy for a solid payout but this is where us squares lose our money and our edge to our bookies.
Common Misconception #7- No one hits +60% over time
This is simply not true, I have seen guys do it for time and these pros everytime I have been to Vegas to do a journal piece on one of them they have gone 4-0, 3-1 etc EVERY TIME. One of the guys has shown me his spreadsheet on his computer of all the plays he makes where he is hitting a documented 69% over 5 years. So this theory that pros hit 57% is shot to hell as far as I am concerned. Pros are a special breed and know how to win at an extremley high clip that most of us couldn't dream of.
So How Do You Win at this Shit?
Well, it takes time. You need to watch learn, listen, monitor, and get the best numbers all the time with the best odds and they have insisted that alone will turn a 50% bettor into a 55% bettor all by itself. Here are some golden rules they have said to follow.
1. Only Straight Wagers on Full Game Spreads and Full Game Totals.
They say your odds are best in these types of bets while betting quarters and halves often turn into simple coin flips.
2. Always Get The Best # and If you can't find that number you want, don't play.
As I said before they insist they can turn your winning % 5-7% higher just by doing this.
3. Never ever, ever buy points, tease, parlay etc.
There is one exception to this they say. They say it is profitable to buy down from -3.5 to -3 IF you can do it for just -0.1%. That means if a -110 (-3.5) is offering -3 for -120 it is the right play to take it. But, often books charge more and that it puts it back into their hands.
4. Always Flat Bet a Pre Determined % Of Your Bankroll
Now what is the right %? I have heard things around here from 5% to 2% etc. The pros say it is more like 7%. That means if you have $1,000 you can comfortably place about 15 bets of $70. Your not going to go 0-15 and you should be able to atleast go 8-7 over the 15 bets which will net you a small profit. The pros claim to go about 10-5 over 15 bets on average.
5. Never Ever,Ever, Ever, Ever, Ever, Ever Chase
This is the thing they told me kills 99% of losing gamblers. One bad day and the next days card is twice as big. One 0-2 morning and all of a sudden their 4 pm wagers are twice the amount. You can't win doing it. So stop Sammy while you can.
6. Look At Sides Like Stocks (Don't Bet For Action)
Don't bet for the action on a game and so you can root in Florida -12 because its on but bet as an investment and hoping that investment turns to profit. Essentially only bet where you see a strong amount of value.
7. Don't Bet With Emotions
You like the Giants doesn't mean you have to bet the Giants. Your going to the UNLV game doesn't mean you need to bet on UNLV. You just lost a bet on a bad beat doesn't mean you immediatley need to bet another game to win it back. You just went 5-0 doesn't mean you can start increasing your bet on the night game because its all profit anyway.
8. Be Patient
You don't have the gift most pros have so don't try to. They see edges we don't see in all sorts of games. If we can't see that edge we don't have to try to bet the same amount of games they do. Eventually you will see your edge in a game and if you get the best # on that game where you see strong value they insist you can win that bet 60% of the time for most people.
9. Don't Listen to the Talking Heads
They kept harping on the fact that these guys know nothing and that they just fill us with false information in the back of our minds. They say its better to read up on stuff where you can just get the news aspect rather then someone's opinion who is probably a 50% bettor.
10. Never Be Afraid
If your scared to put the money in the middle, pick another hobby. You need to bet the value no matter how ugly a side looks or how much of your bankroll is on the line in a given day.
11. Losing Days Happen
They lose on days, they break even on days, they win a lot of days. They have lost over the course of a month before but it is their ability to stay focused, adjust and bounce back with a 70% month or few weeks that make them professionals.
12. If You Can't Follow These Rules Get Out
They insist you will sink long term and should just get out now.
I hope this helps some, I hope some find it as a good read, some will probably think I am full of shit but I am just putting this out there and if it helps one person become a better gambler I will have accomplished my goal.
Just know I do a lot of the thigns I just preached against and that this is totally based on my pro contacts opinions rather then mine. Some I agree with, some I do not. But I am trying to learn from them just like most of you.
Note: I fall into these traps still to this day myself so don't let me come off as an arrogant scumbag trying to tell you I know all.
Common Misconception #1- Sharp Action
The word gets thrown out so much among these forums and we all seem to "know" where the sharp money is and what the sharps are on. So my question is, if we know this why don't we just follow the sharp action everyday? Plain and simple because you don't know, you are guessing. Sometimes you guess wrong and sometimes you guess write. I see all this talk about all the sharps moving the LSU line yesterday and it couldn't be further from the truth. I have developed contacts over the years with a handful of semi-well known pros and I call them from time to time to do a day in the life of a pro piece for my local newspaper on big gambling days (SB, March Madness, New Years Day, etc). They have all denied me access to the bets they make before hand but gladly and honestly spill the beans on how they faired after the games. I was out with them writing a journal type piece last March Madness and they had a great day. I took a consensus of my 5 contacts I had about their Bowl wagers yesterday and the consensus: Auburn-5/NW-0, PSU-5/LSU-0, FSU-4/WVU-1, Oregon-4/OSU-1, Rose Bowl Under-3/Over-0, Florida-4/Cincy-0. Now raise your hand if you thought the pros were on Florida and PSU...me neither. The fact is we know nothing about what the pros are actually betting and line moves all sorts of different directions not always based on sharp action, sometimes they even go against the sharp on purpose if they think they may be looking to middle on a key number. So if you are going to bet and you don't know any sharps don't try to figure out what they are betting because it is simply a coin flip, they bet with the public/against the public but they read lines better then anyone and always know when and where to pounce to get that key number.
Common Misconception #2- Public %'s
How many times have we read, "OMG, 92% on the Vikings, give me the Browns!". Well Mr. Sharp how did that turn out? The facts are this, most of these numbers you read on SBRodds (no offense) and other free line services simply are not accurate at all usually. I have seen two different sites spitting out 40-50% differences on a certain side. I understand the thought process, "the public loses, so if I fade the public I will win". Not so fast, the public loses because of the vig and the odds they give and the fact that they buy points, take bad lines, do parlays, teasers, etc. Talking to a few guys in the buisness they say they never look at the %'s. They say it doesn't matter. They told me that "public" loses about 50% of the time and wins about 50% of the time on their straight bets. But, the books always win because you have people who will chase when they hit a cold streak, pony up huge amounts on bad number, and do the things I just listed above that shift the edge towards the casino. So next time you see a bullshit number spitting out 80% on Patriots 20% on Texans just know the odds on covering that game are still going to be 50-50 on a given side.
Common Misconception #3- "So if it is 50-50 to cover you can't win doing this?"
No, you can win. You can shift the advantage to your side by knowing these teams as well as the books do and capitalizing by taking the best numbers with the best odds and not falling into the death traps that most losing gamblers do. A direct quote in my March 09' column from one of the pros: "The common person who knows a good amount about a given sport and all the teams can hit at a 60% clip in that sport fairly easily. It is just extremley hard for the common man to stay within himself, continue to stick to his guns, and not parlay, tease, buy hooks, play bad number, and all the other sucker plays that swing your 60% into the casinos favor." Seems logical if you think about it. I know in the NFL I am capable of hitting 60% over a year but I give some back on halftime plays, quarter plays, teasers, etc. Not to mention varying bet sizes which leads me to my next point.
Common Misconception #4- Go Big on a Play You Feel Strongly About
I am one of the bigger offenders of this. I don't really beleive in flat betting but everyone I have talked to insists this is the way to do it. Every pro bettor I talked to bets the same % of their total bankroll on a given play in a given day, however they will sometimes add on to the play if it moves there way. Example, one of my pros when I wrote an article on the first NFL Sunday he told me he had Washington Redskins +6 for his standard bet but later in the day when +6.5 became available he added the same amount onto that number as 6 is considered a key number in football. How many times have we been down 2 units on the day but went 5-3 but lost our two big bets? I know it hurts when you know a team is going to win and you don't put a ton down on it but they insist to me this is the right way to do it because we should only be betting the games we feel strongly about.
Common Misconception #5- Betting A Lot of Games is a Bad Thing
I see these people on this forum who think they are sharp and all and go into someones thread and laugh that they take a ton of games. Well this morning I asked my pros how many bowl games have they not wagered on so far. The responses, 4, 0, 1, 3, 2. They said they feel they can find the edge in the game and have the confidence in themselves to turn that profit. But suggested if you don't feel confident or can't crack a game you need to pass. I found that very interesting to me. I always thought the pros took one or two games a day but they said to me the numbers are so volatile on bowl games that they can find value by kickoff based on the line moving and eventually reaching the number they want to play. Makes sense I guess.
Common Misconception #6- Sucker Bets
People still parlay, tease, buy points, play props, play halves, play quarters, play any bet they put out. Well the books wouldn't put these out if they werent in there favor, and no you aren't good at teasers. These bets all seem easy for a solid payout but this is where us squares lose our money and our edge to our bookies.
Common Misconception #7- No one hits +60% over time
This is simply not true, I have seen guys do it for time and these pros everytime I have been to Vegas to do a journal piece on one of them they have gone 4-0, 3-1 etc EVERY TIME. One of the guys has shown me his spreadsheet on his computer of all the plays he makes where he is hitting a documented 69% over 5 years. So this theory that pros hit 57% is shot to hell as far as I am concerned. Pros are a special breed and know how to win at an extremley high clip that most of us couldn't dream of.
So How Do You Win at this Shit?
Well, it takes time. You need to watch learn, listen, monitor, and get the best numbers all the time with the best odds and they have insisted that alone will turn a 50% bettor into a 55% bettor all by itself. Here are some golden rules they have said to follow.
1. Only Straight Wagers on Full Game Spreads and Full Game Totals.
They say your odds are best in these types of bets while betting quarters and halves often turn into simple coin flips.
2. Always Get The Best # and If you can't find that number you want, don't play.
As I said before they insist they can turn your winning % 5-7% higher just by doing this.
3. Never ever, ever buy points, tease, parlay etc.
There is one exception to this they say. They say it is profitable to buy down from -3.5 to -3 IF you can do it for just -0.1%. That means if a -110 (-3.5) is offering -3 for -120 it is the right play to take it. But, often books charge more and that it puts it back into their hands.
4. Always Flat Bet a Pre Determined % Of Your Bankroll
Now what is the right %? I have heard things around here from 5% to 2% etc. The pros say it is more like 7%. That means if you have $1,000 you can comfortably place about 15 bets of $70. Your not going to go 0-15 and you should be able to atleast go 8-7 over the 15 bets which will net you a small profit. The pros claim to go about 10-5 over 15 bets on average.
5. Never Ever,Ever, Ever, Ever, Ever, Ever Chase
This is the thing they told me kills 99% of losing gamblers. One bad day and the next days card is twice as big. One 0-2 morning and all of a sudden their 4 pm wagers are twice the amount. You can't win doing it. So stop Sammy while you can.
6. Look At Sides Like Stocks (Don't Bet For Action)
Don't bet for the action on a game and so you can root in Florida -12 because its on but bet as an investment and hoping that investment turns to profit. Essentially only bet where you see a strong amount of value.
7. Don't Bet With Emotions
You like the Giants doesn't mean you have to bet the Giants. Your going to the UNLV game doesn't mean you need to bet on UNLV. You just lost a bet on a bad beat doesn't mean you immediatley need to bet another game to win it back. You just went 5-0 doesn't mean you can start increasing your bet on the night game because its all profit anyway.
8. Be Patient
You don't have the gift most pros have so don't try to. They see edges we don't see in all sorts of games. If we can't see that edge we don't have to try to bet the same amount of games they do. Eventually you will see your edge in a game and if you get the best # on that game where you see strong value they insist you can win that bet 60% of the time for most people.
9. Don't Listen to the Talking Heads
They kept harping on the fact that these guys know nothing and that they just fill us with false information in the back of our minds. They say its better to read up on stuff where you can just get the news aspect rather then someone's opinion who is probably a 50% bettor.
10. Never Be Afraid
If your scared to put the money in the middle, pick another hobby. You need to bet the value no matter how ugly a side looks or how much of your bankroll is on the line in a given day.
11. Losing Days Happen
They lose on days, they break even on days, they win a lot of days. They have lost over the course of a month before but it is their ability to stay focused, adjust and bounce back with a 70% month or few weeks that make them professionals.
12. If You Can't Follow These Rules Get Out
They insist you will sink long term and should just get out now.
I hope this helps some, I hope some find it as a good read, some will probably think I am full of shit but I am just putting this out there and if it helps one person become a better gambler I will have accomplished my goal.
Just know I do a lot of the thigns I just preached against and that this is totally based on my pro contacts opinions rather then mine. Some I agree with, some I do not. But I am trying to learn from them just like most of you.
