I have read some comments and looked at some lines this morning and the one thing that sticks out to me is Atlanta -3 in the NBA. I don't like this game the more I look at it the more I see Portand winning. To Me this line should probably be Atlanta-6 or -7 being the way they have played and the game is at home. Folks, if you are on Atlanta I suggest jumping off. It might work, but I don't feel right about it. Let's make a small play on Portland ML +140
-
-
Ya when i first looked..i thought atl is a good play, but i just dont feel it anymore.Its a no play for me. Milw +1.5 was the play to get it. Now its -1.5
Comment -
portland is the play, good thing u changed your mind.Comment -
I never changed my mind. That post of $50,000 on ATL was just for a laugh. My whole net worth is not that much I am sure. I will have Portland,Milwaulkee,and Cleveland NFL. Sounds like 3 winners doesn't it?Originally posted by poker_dummy101Comment -
This is why its called gambling lyon, nothings a sure thing. As confident as you are in Portland and Milwaukee, I'm just as confident in ATL and Dallas.Comment -
And I don't really consider myself a square. Goodluck tonight.Comment -
This makes no sense. You think the line should be -6 or -7 and that is the point of handicapping; you decide a winning percentage for a given team in a match up and if the odds offered are better you take advantage. You think Atlanta wins this game a lot more often than the odds being offered so why not take it? Basically your original post is saying, "I think this but I'm going to bet completely the opposite way.""Things happen for a reason, they say, but I say there's a reason things happen"
"Not everybody talks, but everybody lies / Not everybody lives, but everybody dies"Comment -
I think what he is trying to say is that the line should be -7 according to how Atlanta have played. The fact that Vegas/bookmakers have set the line at -3 means that they know something that we, the general public, do not. Essentially, Lyon is capping the line. Line looks fishy, so bet the other way. At least, that is what I think he is doing.Originally posted by BadBeatBodogComment -
Originally posted by Regul8erYou are so right! There is no sure things. The line looks to easy to me. You handicappers waste so much of your time looking for something that doesn't exist... VALUE. The lines you selected looked good and that's why you took them.Ask yourself "who made those lines look good'??? Go look at all the square money action on those games. Do your research. Don't just bet stuff that looks good. I am trying to be helpful. You might be right tonite. it could work but you are definitely on the wrong side of the money pal.. So yes you are a Square. Atlanta is 1-6 SU last 7 games played at home against Portland. Dallas is 1-4-1 last 6 games ATS on the road against Milwaulkee!!! YOU STILL LIKE YOUR BETS SIR??? YOU THINK YOU MIGHT BE A SQUARE AFTERALL>>> GL to you tonite SIROriginally posted by Regul8erComment -
Thats exactly what he's saying BadBeatBodog, if he expects the line to be at -6 at it comes out at -3 its not a Vegas error giving all us lucky bettors some extra value, rather its fishy as hell and should be enough to make you side with the books. I took Atlanta -3.5 hoping to scalp later, but with the way the line has moved I'm probably just gonna buy back Portland and eat the Vig.
Twister beat me to it, well said bud.
Comment -
Originally posted by BadBeatBodog
That's how money is made. Vegas will tell you the information based on the line all that handicapping you people do is a fukking useless exercise. I do enough handicapping to just understand line value and the way things should be to take advantage of what Vegas already knows. You see Vegas has done forgot more than we will ever know people. If I am confusing you I am sorry. If you stick around the game I might teach you something. There is no sure thing. The public gets hot sometimes, but overtime they will lose. Vegas, isn't handing out easy money because they like you.Comment -
Fine, I can see how he's doing that. But if he is, it makes absolutely no sense. He is saying the line should be -7 according to how Atlanta played in his opinion. Hey no offense but that means nothing. I could say the line should be -1 and that has the same merit as him saying -7.Originally posted by twister
What I am trying to get at is, if you are forming uneducated opinions about teams and then coming up with lines off the top of your head it's going to get you nowhere. Based on this it's all guesswork and assumptions. 'The line should be -7 and Vegas knows that so they set it to -3 so the money pours in on Atlanta.' Anyone else realize how ridiculous that sounds?
How about instead, you take the time to actually study teams and public perception, so when you say the line should be -7, it's actually an educated guess that you can stand behind and bet, instead of fading yourself."Things happen for a reason, they say, but I say there's a reason things happen"
"Not everybody talks, but everybody lies / Not everybody lives, but everybody dies"Comment -
I would definately place you in the square category sir. Atlanta is 1-6 SU last 7 games played at home against Portland???? C'mon man, don't give me that garbage. Your going back to the early 2000's where ATL was a walkover. Completely different team today then the last 7 SU games. Who even refers to trends in the NBA beyond the last year or two. CALLING ALL SQUARES....CALLING ALL SQUARES!Originally posted by lyon804Comment -
How does no one see the failed logic in this? Where does -6 come from? Again, his opinion that it should be -6 and then betting it solely based on the fact it's a lot lower, IS VERY WRONG.Originally posted by Razz_DonkeyThats exactly what he's saying BadBeatBodog, if he expects the line to be at -6 at it comes out at -3 its not a Vegas error giving all us lucky bettors some extra value, rather its fishy as hell and should be enough to make you side with the books. I took Atlanta -3.5 hoping to scalp later, but with the way the line has moved I'm probably just gonna buy back Portland and eat the Vig.
Twister beat me to it, well said bud."Things happen for a reason, they say, but I say there's a reason things happen"
"Not everybody talks, but everybody lies / Not everybody lives, but everybody dies"Comment -
Actually, if he was a profitable handicapper and thought the line should be -6 then he should definitely be on ATL -3.Comment -
Vig and money management are the main reason people lose money betting, imo.Originally posted by lyon804"Things happen for a reason, they say, but I say there's a reason things happen"
"Not everybody talks, but everybody lies / Not everybody lives, but everybody dies"Comment -
Bottom line. You see the line -3. Kneejerk reaction is 'Omg the line should be -7...Vegas knows this so it's a trap."
I promise you this is wrong (aside from the fact you completely pulled the number, be it 6/7/8/whatever, from your ass) and will get you nowhere in the long run betting. It's a shortcut and will fail you. Taking the time to be confident in your ability to give team's a winning percentage in a given match up means you can actually come up with a real number and bet WITH it, not AGAINST it."Things happen for a reason, they say, but I say there's a reason things happen"
"Not everybody talks, but everybody lies / Not everybody lives, but everybody dies"Comment -
Originally posted by twisterOriginally posted by Razz_DonkeyThats exactly what he's saying BadBeatBodog, if he expects the line to be at -6 at it comes out at -3 its not a Vegas error giving all us lucky bettors some extra value, rather its fishy as hell and should be enough to make you side with the books. I took Atlanta -3.5 hoping to scalp later, but with the way the line has moved I'm probably just gonna buy back Portland and eat the Vig.
Twister beat me to it, well said bud.
You two people actually get it. Vegas, doesn't put out a bad line usually, especially in pro sports. maybe in some eastbugga vs west buggas college football there compass might be off, but not here.
There was a genius Friday that called the Vegas Oddmakers drunk because they had installed Ole miss a favorite over Tennesee and the line was up to -Ole Miss. He said Tennesee +200 was the best moneyline play. I warned him he was very wrong. I understood what he was saying because I felt the same way. I bet nicely on Ole Miss -5 1/2 end of story.Comment -
LOLOriginally posted by BadBeatBodogComment -
[quote=BadBeatBodog;2573544]Bottom line. You see the line -3. Kneejerk reaction is 'Omg the line should be -7...Vegas knows this so it's a trap."
I promise you this is wrong (aside from the fact you completely pulled the number, be it 6/7/8/whatever, from your ass) and will get you nowhere in the long run betting. It's a shortcut and will fail you. Taking the time to be confident in your ability to give team's a winning percentage in a given match up means you can actually come up with a real number and bet WITH it, not AGAINST it.
Well, you have your way and I have my way. I did however agree with the vig and money management advice. GL to you.Comment -
If you read all my posts in this thread you'll see it was quite obviously a typo. I meant betting against it.Originally posted by B1GER1C828"Things happen for a reason, they say, but I say there's a reason things happen"
"Not everybody talks, but everybody lies / Not everybody lives, but everybody dies"Comment -
So, your saying if i think a line should be -6 and its actually -3, should i consider betting -3 or +3?Originally posted by BadBeatBodogComment -
Lyon, I think in your own way you are trying to say that sometimes the lines makers will put out a line different than what it 'should' be (based on straight numbers) because of situation or perception. LVSC knows they can squeeze a point or two out of a side sometimes. But not every time. And you have to be able to actually identify when and why they are doing it, not just come up with a number different than the actual spread (again, I will ask you, where did this number come from and why is it accurate? Sorry but your opinion of what the line SHOULD be is worthless here. Prove to me it's not.) and say oh look it's a trap. Tell me why the line is so much lower in this game please, lyon?Originally posted by lyon804 You two people actually get it. Vegas, doesn't put out a bad line usually, especially in pro sports. maybe in some eastbugga vs west buggas college football there compass might be off, but not here.
There was a genius Friday that called the Vegas Oddmakers drunk because they had installed Ole miss a favorite over Tennesee and the line was up to -Ole Miss. He said Tennesee +200 was the best moneyline play. I warned him he was very wrong. I understood what he was saying because I felt the same way. I bet nicely on Ole Miss -5 1/2 end of story."Things happen for a reason, they say, but I say there's a reason things happen"
"Not everybody talks, but everybody lies / Not everybody lives, but everybody dies"Comment -
C'mon. Obv if you are handicapping games and computing your own lines, and think a line should be -6, and it's -3, pound -3. He is saying he thinks the line should be -6, but it's -3, so something is fishy and he's going to 'fade himself.'Originally posted by B1GER1C828"Things happen for a reason, they say, but I say there's a reason things happen"
"Not everybody talks, but everybody lies / Not everybody lives, but everybody dies"Comment -
Look man! I was just trying to help. I see winning isn't important to you besides you might have $25-$50 on both games. Ashtray money! The statistics I have gave you were from the within last 2 years. No hard feeling, but remember when you are 0-2 later tonite I told you so. You were right about one thing. Thers is no sure things so you could be right and I am wrong we will see.Originally posted by Regul8erComment -
I booked Atl last night, come this morning I regret it, I can totally see ATL winning by 1 0r 2 or losing on a game winner, but hope you are wrong lyon but I don't think you are. One fun stat I havent seen posted in here was Atlantas record at home vs the werstern conference last year, I believe it was 12-3 or 12-4. ATL is a complete square bet bottomline and anyone who is arguing with this guy is wasting their time. I really wish I laid off this game and didnt bet on ATL way before I saw this post.Comment -
O ok, this is idiotic then. I didnt follow hole thread which is stupid on my part, but Lyon seems to come up with weird conclusions. Says hes going to bet atl -3.5...then hours later or w/e says hes taking port +3.5...when does he lock in his plays? lolOriginally posted by BadBeatBodogComment -
I think that he needs stats and simulations to arrive at -6. Using just opinions is of course a very flawed practice. I'm not sure you're giving due credit to the psychology and methods used by lines makers and their opening offers. I don't buy into the idea that I can out cap the books, they have way more data and info and are going to produce much more accurate lines than me over the long haul. I'll side with them when I feel like something is amiss.Originally posted by BadBeatBodogComment -
Originally posted by BadBeatBodogOriginally posted by BadBeatBodog
Look man! I have no hard numbers on guessing lines. I have been studying them for over 11 years now. It is my best intuition. If you don't like what I said fine, fukking forget. I wasn't calling you a square it was just a title to get people talking not create a war over a fukking opinion.If you don't like my opionion fine, No hard feelings.Comment -
I agree. And I'll point you to a reply I made to lyon in this thread a couple posts up:Originally posted by Razz_Donkey
"LVSC knows they can squeeze a point or two out of a side sometimes. But not every time. And you have to be able to actually identify when and why they are doing it, not just come up with a number different than the actual spread (again, I will ask you, where did this number come from and why is it accurate? Sorry but your opinion of what the line SHOULD be is worthless here. Prove to me it's not.) and say oh look it's a trap. Tell me why the line is so much lower in this game please, lyon?"
I need someone to identify and tell me why the line is inflated/deflated, not just have a strong opinion about the team and be worried of a trap."Things happen for a reason, they say, but I say there's a reason things happen"
"Not everybody talks, but everybody lies / Not everybody lives, but everybody dies"Comment -
I didn't take the thread title personally, don't worry. I came in here to offer my opinions. I respect yours. It's just an argument (I think sometimes people forget arguments can be civil!)Originally posted by lyon804"Things happen for a reason, they say, but I say there's a reason things happen"
"Not everybody talks, but everybody lies / Not everybody lives, but everybody dies"Comment -
Originally posted by lyon804
So your telling me Portland has played at Atlanta 7 times in the last 2 years? Your totally making yourself sound foolish.....it's hard to regain any credibility when your throw around fictitious numbers and make yourself look dumb.
I wager to win between $75-$100 a game. If this is ashtray money by your standards, then so be it. It's enough to keep me interested, it keeps me in the game and that's really all that should matter.
By the way, work on your grammar man, it hurts to read your posts!Comment -
No I am not a bookmaker. I respect vegas. Maybe my opinions are flawed, but nothing is perfect anyways. Yes, I think Atlanta should be favored by more here and that's why I think they lose or at least not cover. My opinion's that some of you people are bashing have been developed over time and are starting to show some real promise over the last couple of years. If you want to bash them fine! It's your opinion or right to do so. I didn't not mean to cause such a stir or commotion over this.Originally posted by Razz_Donkey
Bottomline. I have never met a wealthy handicapper. I believe you must think outside the box. If you don't agree fine. If I liked ATL here I would just not play it for many reaosns.Comment -
u sir are correct. however there isnt a sharp/square aspect on every game. however even though i disagree with the the original posters delivery and cockiness he is right about this one. if this game were mixed in a 12 game nba slate i think you would see a line that would produce more of a 50-50 bet average. the fact that gamblers are limited to what they can bet tonight (nba wise) coupled with a very fishy line and no movement at all makes atl a square play IMO.Originally posted by KiDBaZkiTComment -
Originally posted by Regul8er
My bad. 6 times! Thanks for the grammar lessons. I am college educated and can spell and write. I didn't know I was in that kinda forum. I get shots taken at me all the time for that. I am not trying to impress by my writing. I'll handle the games and let you handle the grammar. Since I am self employed insurance agent it's not a bid deal for me. Oh, by the way the stats are below.
Monday, November 16, 2009 (Times shown in Central Standard Time)
Time
Rot.
Competitor
Point Spread
Moneyline
Total
Score
6:05p
501
Portland Trail Blazers
+3½
-
188
(-105)o
(-115)u
502
Atlanta Hawks
-3½
-
PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERSATLANTA HAWKS8-3November 16, 7:00 PM | of Philips Arena8-2 RECENT FORM
TEAMSUATSOFFDEFDIFFPortland8-38-395.487.18.3Atlanta8-29-1108.0100.08.0TEAMATS HOMEATS AWAYOUOU HOMEOU AWAYPortland3-25-13-81-42-4Atlanta4-05-17-33-14-2
SMART CHART
POR TEAM ATL95.4 PTS FOR
108.087.1
PTS AGNST 100.08.3DIFF. 8.033.3DEF. REBOUNDS 31.811.1 OFF. REBOUNDS11.344.1 FG%48.683.1FT% 79.26.63 POINTERS 5.76.3 STEALS7.0INJURIES
PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERSPLAYERPOSDESCRIPTIONNicolas BatumGOut Indefinitely (shoulder injury)Jerryd BaylessGDay-to-Day (sprained ankle)Travis OutlawFOut Indefinitely (foot injury)Jeff PendergraphFOut Indefinitely (hip surgery)ATLANTA HAWKSPLAYERPOSDESCRIPTIONNo Injuries to report.BETTING TRENDS
PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERSPortland is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games Portland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Portland's last 15 games Portland is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the roadPortland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the roadThe total has gone UNDER in 10 of Portland's last 12 games on the roadPortland is 13-3 SU in its last 16 games when playing AtlantaThe total has gone OVER in 8 of Portland's last 11 games when playing AtlantaPortland is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against AtlantaPortland is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against AtlantaATLANTA HAWKSAtlanta is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games Atlanta is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games Atlanta is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at homeAtlanta is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at homeAtlanta is 3-13 SU in its last 16 games when playing PortlandThe total has gone OVER in 8 of Atlanta's last 11 games when playing PortlandAtlanta is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against PortlandAtlanta is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against PortlandHEAD TO HEAD SUMMARY
TEAMSUATSOUAVG SCOREAVG ½ SCOREFG%REB3PT MADESTEALSPortland7-34-67-395.546.446.239.751 - 1545.6Atlanta3-76-47-397.148.846.938.956 - 1476.7HEAD TO HEAD DETAIL
DATEDAYAWAYPTSHOMEPTSHOMELINEATSTOTALOUF G% EDGEREB EDGE3PT EDGE11/03/2009TueATL97POR91-7ATL192½UATLATLPOR03/15/2009SunPOR80ATL98-4ATL188½UATLPORATL02/20/2009FriATL98POR108-4½POR191½OPORPORPOR01/27/2008SunATL93POR94-6ATL184OATLATLPOR01/21/2008MonPOR111ATL1091POR181½OPORATLATL03/23/2007FriPOR102ATL100-5POR181½OATLPORATL12/03/2006SunATL107POR96-2½ATL189½OATLPORATL11/27/2005SunPOR77ATL75-4POR186½UPORATLPOR11/05/2005SatATL93POR94-7ATL184OATLPORATL02/25/2005FriATL101POR102-11ATL186OPORATLPORTEAMS LAST 5 GAMES
PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERSDATEDAYSCOREOPPONENTSCORESULINETO TALFG%FT%3PT MADEDAYS REST11/14/2009Sat80at Charlotte74W317142.284.05011/13/2009Fri86at New Orleans78W3187½37.969.22111/11/2009Wed107at Minnesota84W7½18955.386.710011/10/2009Tue93at Memphis79W6½20245.787.09111/08/2009Sun116Minnesota93W-13188½50.090.071ATLANTA HAWKSDATEDAYSCOREOPPONENTSCORESULINETOTA LFG%FT%3PT MADEDAYS REST11/14/2009Sat121New Orleans98W-12½19654.562.17011/13/2009Fri97at Boston86W-919345.273.94111/11/2009Wed114at New York101W520854.383.36311/07/2009Sat125Denver100W-3210½51.790.08011/06/2009Fri83at Charlotte103L2½18039.865.221SUPERGRID
RANK RANKPortland's Overall Scoring vs Atlanta's Overall Defense95.3623100.0017Portland's Away Scoring vs Atlanta's Home Defense92.672499.0018Portland's Road Rebounds vs Atlanta's Home Rebounds Allowed43.33739.259Atlanta's Overall Scoring vs Portland's Overall Defense108.00387.091Atlanta's Home Scoring vs Portland's Road Defense116.50383.331Atlanta's Home Rebounds vs Portland's Road Rebounds Allowed43.501236.832TEAM NEWS
PORTLANDOregonianATLANTAAtlanta Journal ConstitutionTOP 3/BOTTOM 3
PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERSPortland leads the league in free throw percentage with 83.1.Portland is the toughest team to score on in the league, allowing just 87.1 points per game.Portland has the best field goal percentage against in the league allowing 41.0.Portland leads the league in rebounds allowed at 37.5.ATLANTA HAWKSAtlanta is the third highest scoring team in the league at 108.0 points per game.POWER STATS
SHOOTING PERCENTAGETEAMOFFDEFDIFFPortland44.141.0 3.1Atlanta48.646.12.4REBOUNDINGTEAMOFFDE FTOTALPortland11.133.344.4Atlanta11.331. 843.1ASSIST/TURNOVER RATIOTEAMASSISTSTURNOVERSRATIOPortland19 .513.51.4Atlanta21.612.51.7TEAM VS DIVISION OR CONFERENCE
PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERSSUHOMEAWAYATSATS HOMEATS AWAYOFFDEFDIFFOverall8-33-25-18-33-25-195.487.18.3vs Div3-11-12-03-11-12-0100.087.013.0Last 107-32-25-17-32-25-195.387.18.2vs East1-10-11-01-10-11-085.585.50.0vs West7-23-14-17-23-14-197.687.410.1ATLANTA HAWKSSUHOMEAWAYATSATS HOMEATS AWAYOFFDEFDIFFOverall8-24-04-29-14-05-1108.0100.08.0vs Div1-11-00-11-11-00-191.596.0-4.5Last 108-24-04-29-14-05-1108.0100.08.0vs East4-12-02-14-12-02-1102.897.65.2vs West4-12-02-15-02-03-0113.2102.410.8Comment
