New Mathematically Correct BCS Top 25 Figures

[InThisMoment]

A couple quick notes of explanation:

Only games played are taken into consideration, therefore no preseason poll and movement up or down is based on mathematical formula as opposed to instrinsic biases.

Hierarchy of data is Undefeated Teams>Total Wins>Road Wins>Home Wins>Road Losses> Home Losses.

Only games versus BCS teams are considered. Non-BCS opponents (Conf-USA, MAC, Mtn.West, Sun Belt, WAC, and Non-ND independents) have a value of zero. BCS opponents have a value of one.

Teams playing top-heavy schedules initially rate higher but the situation corrects itself as the season goes on as opposed to the biased polls.

Amendments to previous formula are as follows:
-No double loss penalty for loss to non-BCS team (counts same value as BCS loss).
-Undefeated BCS team is always > Total Wins.

This week's polls (with last week's rankings at end):
Mathematically Correct NCAA Top 25

Updated 10/11/09
120 Teams- only BCS opponents counted.
Null set= CUSA,MAC,MWC,SB,WAC,NND
0L>1L>2L…
U>TW>RW>HW>RL>HL
Amendments: No Double Loss for Loss to Non-BCS teams. Undefeated Teams(U)>TW’s(Total Wins)

Current Top 25:
Last Week
1. Alabama 4-3-1-0-0 2
2. Iowa 4-2-2-0-0 4
3. Florida 3-2-1-0-0 7
4. Kansas 3-0-3-0-0 9
5. TCU 2-2-0-0-0 18
6. Cincinnati 2-2-0-0-0 6
7. South Florida 2-2-0-0-0 5
8. Texas 2-0-2-0-0 11
9. LSU 4-3-1-0-1 1
10. Ga. Tech 4-2-2-1-0 15
11. Va. Tech 4-1-3-1-0 14
12. Oregon 4-1-3-1-0 23
13. USC 3-2-1-1-0 12
14. Houston 3-2-1-1-0 NR
15. Notre Dame 3-1-2-1-0 17
16. South Carolina 3-1-2-1-0 19
17. Auburn 3-1-2-1-0 4
18. Miami-Fla. 3-1-2-1-0 13
19. Ohio State 3-1-2-0-1 21
20. Stanford 3-1-2-2-0 16
21. Wake Forest 3-0-3-1-1 NR
22. Minnesota 3-2-1-0-2 NR
23. Pitt 2-1-1-1-0 NR
24. West Va. 2-1-1-1-0 NR
25. Wisconsin 2-1-0-1-0 8
Others:
Penn State (26th)
Okla St. (27th)
Boise State (38th)

Dropped out:
Mizzou (10)
UCLA (20)
BC (24)
Michigan (25)

[InThisMoment]

Notes:

-Alabama and Iowa are only two undefeated teams with 4 BCS wins, Alabama has 3 road wins over Iowa's 2 therefore their ranking.

-Kansas is an anomaly at 4 simply due to undefeated record and 3 road wins.

-Cincinnati and So. Fla. are tied at 6. This week's game will make or break them next week.

-TCU at #5 can only drop in the rankings from here as they have no BCS opponents remaining.

-Boise dropped from 29th previous week to 38th this week. For mathematical purposes they play a one game BCS schedule and will finish 1-0.

-Of the 120 FBS teams, 47 have 0 BCS (countable) victories.

[wacked]

Interesting, but pretty much useless as non BCS teams can't always get a home & home with BCS schools and have no choice but to play teams in their conference. Glad you don't have a decision in the post season games. =)

With your poll, the games below would never of happened.

It's already been proven with Boise St winning in bowl games against big name teams...i.e. Oklahoma and last year Utah beating Bama.

[InThisMoment]

Wacked,
Agree with your analysis that non-BCS teams can beat BCS teams in a one-off situation.

It is not really a poll but rather a mathematical computation based on historical data as well as what has actually happened on the field.

The big differences between data-sorting such as this and the polls is 1) there is no poll "hierarchy" from week to week.(in other words the data reformulates and a team can move up or down depending on their data from that week as opposed to the ladder system the polls implement, 2) margin of victory plays no role in the formula, simply winning is credited, 3) all BCS teams are treated equally and all non-BCS teams are discarded.

The only deviation that may be controversial is that non-BCS teams are not included in the data. This is based on historical data as well as grounded in simple reasoning.

The examples of Boise State and Utah (and Hawaii versus Georgia in the Sugar Bowl) in the two bowl games lends credence to the formulas as they did everything they could on the field but still were not given consideration for the BCS championship game. Or in mathematical terms, they are a null set.

Until the BCS formula is changed to include these two teams, they cannot mathematically compete. The debate whether this is right or wrong is irrelevant as far as the math is concerned.