A couple of weeks into the 2009 NFL season, a few stats are worth taking a look at for handicapping purposes, including turnovers, third down conversions and points per possession.
Heading into Week 3 of the NFL season, a number of factors from the first two weeks are worth looking at for indications of line value due to market over or under-reactions to those factors. Turnovers, especially fumbles, third down conversion rates, and points per possession are three such factors, and all come into play as SBR’s Justin7 and Peter Loshak preview Week 3 on SBR.tv.
In Week 2, the Monday night Colts/Dolphins game saw a combined 50 points scored, going well over the posted total of 41, despite each team getting only 8 possessions, which is 33% lower than the norm for an NFL game. This was an eye-popping result, and it may be an indicator of future value with betting the over for both Miami and the Colts.
Houston is a 3.5-point home favorite over Jacksonville, and the Texans are looking much improved since their opening-day loss to the Jets when they didn’t seem fully ready for the start of the NFL season, in addition to dealing with a nagging ankle injury to starting QB Matt Schaub.
Jacksonville is coming off of a terrible game defensively against Arizona where the Cards’ QB Kurt Warner completed 24 out of 26 passes and wasn’t sacked or intercepted. Houston’s defense may be a bit better than their current stats are showing due to having suffered an unusual amount of fluky big plays so far this year.
Chicago is a 1-point road favorite going into Seattle, and coming off of an impressive Week 2 win over defending Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh. The Seahawks on the other hand are coming off of a game where they got gashed by San Francisco’s running game, and they are facing further injuries on defense. That bodes well for Bears’ RB Matt Forte, who was stifled by the Steelers’ elite run defense last week, but will have a great opportunity for a big game in Seattle unless the Seahawks can solve their run defense problems in a hurry.
Cleveland is a 13-point road dog at Baltimore, and their -4 turnover differential and 23% third down conversion rate may have them appearing to be a bit worse than they actually are. However, Browns’ RB Jamal Lewis is questionable for this game with a hamstring injury, and QB Brady Quinn has been very iffy this year in general. With Baltimore featuring a deep and powerful running game to go along with their always top-level defense, Justin7 and Loshak disagree about possible value with the Browns.
Heading into Week 3 of the NFL season, a number of factors from the first two weeks are worth looking at for indications of line value due to market over or under-reactions to those factors. Turnovers, especially fumbles, third down conversion rates, and points per possession are three such factors, and all come into play as SBR’s Justin7 and Peter Loshak preview Week 3 on SBR.tv.
In Week 2, the Monday night Colts/Dolphins game saw a combined 50 points scored, going well over the posted total of 41, despite each team getting only 8 possessions, which is 33% lower than the norm for an NFL game. This was an eye-popping result, and it may be an indicator of future value with betting the over for both Miami and the Colts.
Houston is a 3.5-point home favorite over Jacksonville, and the Texans are looking much improved since their opening-day loss to the Jets when they didn’t seem fully ready for the start of the NFL season, in addition to dealing with a nagging ankle injury to starting QB Matt Schaub.
Jacksonville is coming off of a terrible game defensively against Arizona where the Cards’ QB Kurt Warner completed 24 out of 26 passes and wasn’t sacked or intercepted. Houston’s defense may be a bit better than their current stats are showing due to having suffered an unusual amount of fluky big plays so far this year.
Chicago is a 1-point road favorite going into Seattle, and coming off of an impressive Week 2 win over defending Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh. The Seahawks on the other hand are coming off of a game where they got gashed by San Francisco’s running game, and they are facing further injuries on defense. That bodes well for Bears’ RB Matt Forte, who was stifled by the Steelers’ elite run defense last week, but will have a great opportunity for a big game in Seattle unless the Seahawks can solve their run defense problems in a hurry.
Cleveland is a 13-point road dog at Baltimore, and their -4 turnover differential and 23% third down conversion rate may have them appearing to be a bit worse than they actually are. However, Browns’ RB Jamal Lewis is questionable for this game with a hamstring injury, and QB Brady Quinn has been very iffy this year in general. With Baltimore featuring a deep and powerful running game to go along with their always top-level defense, Justin7 and Loshak disagree about possible value with the Browns.
These are the type of videos that we could see some more of to go with the entertaining ones! I'm loving the Texans even more now also Mr. Loshak! Thanks!