I'll take Math for 10 points, Bob.

Hybris · 09-21-09, 04:36 PM

Originally posted by hoopster42

who cares. math is overrated in sports wagering. if math counted for anything significant in sports betting, then mathematicians and statisticians would be getting rich on it. again, math in sports is overrated, it is much more an art to find winners than a science

Shark79 · 09-21-09, 04:38 PM

so the moral of the story is :

We would all be buried if we go Live Betting ...

20Four7 · 09-21-09, 04:40 PM

Originally posted by Justin7

There are two minutes left in the game, the visitor is down 8 points and driving from its own 40 yard line.

If the visitor has a 30% change of scoring a TD before time runs out;
if they convert 40% of all 2-point conversion attempts,
the home team has a 7% chance of scoring in regulation if the visitor scores, and
the home team wins 51% of the time in overtime

What is the fair moneyline for a bet placed on the home team with 2 minutes left? (Not a trick question; just focus on the math.)

Not sure how accurate you really need to be. If all those assumptions are correct you can get with in half a percent with some really easy math.

.3 x .4 = 12% .... even if your ignore the 7% chance of the home team coming back since it is less than 1% of the time...... and the home team is basically 50% in OT giving you an answer of 6% of the time the Visitor wins....

Therefore 94% of the time the Home team wins...... don't think you really need to get into 94.XXX % to figure it out. I like making my math simpler if I can.

Mind you I did like going through the exercise and hope Justin puts up more of these or at least explains where his assumptions come from.......

mathdotcom · 09-21-09, 06:02 PM

Useless in practice since the %s he came up with are b.s.

But if you think the numbers are close enough to reality and your fair line is vastly different from actual line, then go ahead

hoopster42 · 09-21-09, 06:04 PM

Originally posted by yisman

False.

i'm not saying math does not matter at all, but it certainly does not matter nearly as much in sports betting as ppl might think it does

mathdotcom · 09-21-09, 06:05 PM

Originally posted by hoopster42

i'm not saying math does not matter at all, but it certainly does not matter nearly as much in sports betting as ppl might think it does

You do math when you count up your daily losses, don't you?

durito · 09-21-09, 06:05 PM

Originally posted by hoopster42

i'm not saying math does not matter at all, but it certainly does not matter nearly as much in sports betting as ppl might think it does

So why is it that the guys using stat/math/market approaches make so much money and the guys trying to "pick winners" lose?

hoopster42 · 09-21-09, 06:06 PM

Originally posted by mathdotcom

You do math when you count up your daily losses, don't you?

i am up 17% aggregate in the stock market the last 8 yrs, so what i do is actually laugh at all you sports bettors who lose, thank you

hoopster42 · 09-21-09, 06:08 PM

Originally posted by durito

So why is it that the guys using stat/math/market approaches make so much money and the guys trying to "pick winners" lose?

no proof that the gambling losers you mentioned first are winning, its probably your deluded mind trying to convince yourself that gambling is a good thing, its not

durito · 09-21-09, 06:17 PM

financial markets are far more efficient than sports gambling markets. what you are doing is no different from what I am doing except that it is harder.

Enogsiwon · 09-21-09, 06:26 PM

this is all a bunch of bull*&%&.. you want to make $$ ... make 10 bets a year when the public perception is way off.. finding these ten bets and being disciplined enough stick to only ten bets is the KEY.. has NOTHING to do with math..

dont let him fool you with this math baloney.. he's trying to sell something down the line just like CK

At least the King tells you he's going to sell you picks..

durito · 09-21-09, 06:31 PM

i'd prefer to make 10,000 bets a year

yisman · 09-21-09, 06:31 PM

Originally posted by hoopster42

i'm not saying math does not matter at all, but it certainly does not matter nearly as much in sports betting as ppl might think it does

Gambling is all about computing probabilities.

I don't think you know what you're talking about.

Chi_archie · 09-21-09, 06:32 PM

good thread

yisman · 09-21-09, 06:38 PM

Originally posted by hoopster42

i am up 17% aggregate in the stock market the last 8 yrs, so what i do is actually laugh at all you sports bettors who lose, thank you

Aren't you the guy who claimed to be in law school? I thought so.

Justin7 · 09-21-09, 06:40 PM

Originally posted by durito

financial markets are far more efficient than sports gambling markets. what you are doing is no different from what I am doing except that it is harder.

A comparison of sports vs financial markets is very interesting from an efficiency perspective. I'm not sure financial markets are more efficient.

The flow of information in sports is much faster and more regulated than in finance...

mathdotcom · 09-21-09, 06:42 PM

It is because the stakes are lower in sports

durito · 09-21-09, 06:43 PM

Originally posted by Justin7

A comparison of sports vs financial markets is very interesting from an efficiency perspective. I'm not sure financial markets are more efficient.

The flow of information in sports is much faster and more regulated than in finance...

There is way more money in financial markets, they should be more efficient. Look at arbitrage opportunities. Those are gone in split seconds in financial markets and you need vast resources just to find them. I can see a couple sports arbs on sbrlines right now.

20Four7 · 09-21-09, 06:44 PM

You have 3 potential bets tonight......

One is -110 with a 55% chance of winning
One is -2500 with a 95% chance of winning
One is +130 with a 51% chance of winning

Which is the best bet?

Then tell me math isn't important..... also rank the bets in terms of best bets.

yisman · 09-21-09, 06:45 PM

I agree with durito about financial markets being more efficient than sports markets.

20Four7 · 09-21-09, 06:49 PM

Originally posted by durito

There is way more money in financial markets, they should be more efficient. Look at arbitrage opportunities. Those are gone in split seconds in financial markets and you need vast resources just to find them. I can see a couple sports arbs on sbrlines right now.

durito, if you can't go on line right now and find at least 2 arbs you shouldn't be betting..... nothing wrong with arbing while you wait for solid plays to come along. Listen to Justin, he's arbing while waiting for week 4 opportunites.

Enogsiwon · 09-21-09, 06:49 PM

Originally posted by 20Four7

You have 3 potential bets tonight......

One is -110 with a 55% chance of winning
One is -2500 with a 95% chance of winning
One is +130 with a 51% chance of winning

Which is the best bet?

Then tell me math isn't important..... also rank the bets in terms of best bets.

thats the whole point.. math wont tell the %'s of a team winning a game on a given night.. watching the games and knowing the sport/teams will..

Justin7 · 09-21-09, 06:53 PM

Originally posted by Enogsiwon

thats the whole point.. math wont tell the %'s of a team winning a game on a given night.. watching the games and knowing the sport/teams will..

I'll vehemently disagree with you on this.

I rarely watch most games. You can set lines with pure statistics - your line will tell you the odds of a team winning a game on a given night. If your model is accurate enough, you can beat any sport. Even a bad model will beat smaller sports.

ABEHONEST · 09-21-09, 06:56 PM

Originally posted by Enogsiwon

thats the whole point.. math wont tell the %'s of a team winning a game on a given night.. watching the games and knowing the sport/teams will..

Please give me your phone #...I will be moving next door when I find out where you live !

And I will bring all of my money in a duffel bag ...just waiting for you to "watch and study your team's for winners " !

durito · 09-21-09, 06:56 PM

Originally posted by 20Four7

durito, if you can't go on line right now and find at least 2 arbs you shouldn't be betting..... nothing wrong with arbing while you wait for solid plays to come along. Listen to Justin, he's arbing while waiting for week 4 opportunites.

I think you misread my post

20Four7 · 09-21-09, 06:59 PM

Originally posted by Enogsiwon

thats the whole point.. math wont tell the %'s of a team winning a game on a given night.. watching the games and knowing the sport/teams will..

If you handicap and believe the final score will be 24 to 10 do you not think math will tell you the % chance of a team winning? Does it represent 60 70 80% chance of winning? If you can't figure out that team A will beat team B by x number of pints who do you know what a good bet is?

20Four7 · 09-21-09, 07:01 PM

Originally posted by durito

I think you misread my post

I didn't miss read your post. I was just saying if you line shop know what the line is and can't find a few arbs then there's a problem..... I can probably find 2 arbs at half time today on the MNF game and there's only 1 of them.....

durito · 09-21-09, 07:10 PM

Originally posted by 20Four7

I didn't miss read your post. I was just saying if you line shop know what the line is and can't find a few arbs then there's a problem..... I can probably find 2 arbs at half time today on the MNF game and there's only 1 of them.....

I said there were few arbs in financial markets, yet many in sports markets. Or atleast that's what I meant to say.

yisman · 09-21-09, 07:18 PM

Originally posted by durito

There is way more money in financial markets, they should be more efficient. Look at arbitrage opportunities. Those are gone in split seconds in financial markets and you need vast resources just to find them. I can see a couple sports arbs on sbrlines right now.

Originally posted by 20Four7

durito, if you can't go on line right now and find at least 2 arbs you shouldn't be betting..... nothing wrong with arbing while you wait for solid plays to come along. Listen to Justin, he's arbing while waiting for week 4 opportunites.

He said "I can see a couple sports arbs on sbrlines right now." He was also saying that it's very difficult to find arb opportunities on the financial markets. IOW, he was agreeing with you.

20Four7 · 09-21-09, 07:23 PM

I thought I was agreeing with him...... after all financial arbs usually involve different markets US and Canada say.... potential currency differences and executing a trade for 1,000's of shares in 2 different markets almost instantaneous all for a few cents a share....

yisman · 09-21-09, 07:57 PM

ok, you were, but the way you phrased it made it sound like you thought he said you couldn't find sports arbs.

"durito, if you can't go on line right now and find at least 2 arbs you shouldn't be betting....."

the "durito" and the "you"

hoopster42 · 09-21-09, 09:29 PM

to find these so-called arbs in sports markets you need to be sitting in front of your comp all day which means you cant keep a regular day job and still find the arbs. a job with benefits etc is so much better than this kind of crap you all are doing

yisman · 09-21-09, 09:47 PM

Originally posted by hoopster42

to find these so-called arbs in sports markets you need to be sitting in front of your comp all day which means you cant keep a regular day job and still find the arbs. a job with benefits etc is so much better than this kind of crap you all are doing

False. There are arbitrage opportunities for everyone, even those who do this on the side.

donjuan · 09-21-09, 10:51 PM

It's hard to imagine someone being more out of their league in this thread than Hoopster.

FWIW, I get -1729 and Justin makes a valid point. Of course you have to have the percentages in the first place but live markets are v inefficient compared to full game stuff.

donjuan · 09-21-09, 10:55 PM

Therefore 94% of the time the Home team wins...... don't think you really need to get into 94.XXX % to figure it out. I like making my math simpler if I can.

Making math simpler leads to errors and there is no reason to do so when you can let Excel or similar programs do the work for you.