I'll take Math for 10 points, Bob.

[Justin7]

There are two minutes left in the game, the visitor is down 8 points and driving from its own 40 yard line.

If the visitor has a 30% change of scoring a TD before time runs out;
if they convert 40% of all 2-point conversion attempts,
the home team has a 7% chance of scoring in regulation if the visitor scores, and
the home team wins 51% of the time in overtime

What is the fair moneyline for a bet placed on the home team with 2 minutes left? (Not a trick question; just focus on the math.)

[SamsNCharge99]

i need the points, so I'll play

what is -210 Bob

[smitch124]

+833

[JoshW]

-1730

[ABEHONEST]

Home team 1/15 Fav. !

[Matt Rain]

+833

+1730

Home team is leading by 8, unless I'm missing something?

My very approximative math gives me -956, but I'm sure it's wrong.

[smitch124]

oh my price was for the visiting team, so -833 would be for the home team...

[pavyracer]

What's the probability that the home team will deflect the Hail Mary pass to the hands of an opposing receiver for the TD?

[JoshW]

Took me three times to get it right. Finally a math question easy enough, that I have a chance at it.

[JoshW]

Yeah, matty I switched my answer three times,LOL. I read it wrong, I put up visitor price instead of home team price.

[JoshW]

.3*.4*.93*.49 = road team percentage chance 5.468%

So fav is 94.53% and moneyline of -1730.

[ABEHONEST]

WHAT ??

[magynuck]

It is a trick question. Two minutes left and 40 yardline are irrelevant. I need to know 1. if the home team scores what is probability of visitors scoring to win or tie 2. probability of the home team turning the ball over after visitors score

[smitch124]

I don't know why I didn't treat the OT as another independent event , still too early here.

[Justin7]

Nice job Josh. The point is... there's a ton of value in live betting if you back the team that is up at the end. You'll often see this scenario horribly mispriced.

[Matt Rain]

Crap, I messed up the probability of OT. Your answer sounds about right JoshW, I now get -1727.

[durito]

i got 94.96%

always **** something up

[magynuck]

I got 5.4684% probability on visitors making the assumptions Justin intended.

[ABEHONEST]

My odd's are astronomical ...trying to figure where, in this World of gambling,you get those estimated odds ?

I would say I am a 25,000/to 1 underdog ?

[mathdotcom]

The correct answer is:

Drop out of [law] school and fill up a new whiteboards trying to figure it out

[illmatick]

ask me another one, I wasn't ready!!

[konck]

-1390

[20Four7]

i got 94.96%

always **** something up

LOL my quick math got me 94.12.....

[hoopster42]

who cares. math is overrated in sports wagering. if math counted for anything significant in sports betting, then mathematicians and statisticians would be getting rich on it. again, math in sports is overrated, it is much more an art to find winners than a science

[yisman]

There are two minutes left in the game, the visitor is down 8 points and driving from its own 40 yard line.

If the visitor has a 30% change of scoring a TD before time runs out;
if they convert 40% of all 2-point conversion attempts,
the home team has a 7% chance of scoring in regulation if the visitor scores, and
the home team wins 51% of the time in overtime

What is the fair moneyline for a bet placed on the home team with 2 minutes left? (Not a trick question; just focus on the math.)

Chances of 8 points for visitors to tie the game = 12%
7% of this 12%, the home team scores again and wins in regulation.

11.16% of the time, it goes into OT.

51% of that is won by the home team.

Thus, 5.6916% of the time, the visitor wins.

94.3084% of the time, the home team wins


The trusty Odds Converter says that a fair ML for the home team would be -1577.29.

Typically, you can get the home team in such a scenario at a far better price.

[ZXCVBNM]

Except yesterday when the Giants were 1 down 1st and 20 on their own 15

[yisman]

who cares. math is overrated in sports wagering. if math counted for anything significant in sports betting, then mathematicians and statisticians would be getting rich on it.

False.

[yisman]

Except yesterday when the Giants were 1 down 1st and 20 on their own 15

completely different situation than the one outlined in the first post.

The Giants had a much better chance of winning than the visiting team in Justin's scenario.

[durito]

Giants were less than +200 before the last drive at pinnacle I believe. Though I picked up a +210 elsewhere --- unfortunately I had more on Dallas at +200 (some books are really dumb)

[durito]

who cares. math is overrated in sports wagering. if math counted for anything significant in sports betting, then mathematicians and statisticians would be getting rich on it.

Who is to say some aren't?

[pokernut9999]

Do the odds change if JJ Gold already has a bet on the home team ?

[20Four7]

Who is to say some aren't?

I believe Dr. Bob's getting rich and he isn't even betting.

[durito]

I believe Dr. Bob's getting rich and he isn't even betting.

Yep, though I'd say Dr. Bob's been well beyond rich for quite sometime.

[20Four7]

Do the odds change if JJ Gold already has a bet on the home team ?

Yes pokernutt. That's when the books hit the doom switch and all the odds go out the window. Visualize JJ sitting in his tin foil hat hoping to cash that winner when all of a sudden the books hit the switch and JJ loses his lock.

[durito]

Nice job Josh. The point is... there's a ton of value in live betting if you back the team that is up at the end. You'll often see this scenario horribly mispriced.

The math isn't hard, but getting the % estimates in the first place is a bit more difficult. Perhaps you should do a live betting video, or perhaps not.