Beating the closing line VS money management

[Shark79]

I think Patty copy/pasted these answers from previous Nicky posts.

[ATX]

beating closing numbers is overrated

money management is underrated

if you consistently ID +EV

you will beat most closing numbers

but fading moves ON closing numbers is half of it

so beating closing numbers is overrated

money management is underrated

because at no part in this game does money management go away

[ATX]

also, don't hang out on the main forums

there may be a few guys in the sports forums that know some stuff

but don't listen to any of the tools that don't post picks

< theoretically > the forum sharps are winners lol

just can't prove it

[MonkeyF0cker]

Ahh, yes. ATX > market efficiency. Makes sense.

[ATX]

MonkeyF0cker < 53.5%

[MonkeyF0cker]

You're wrong about a lot of things I see...

[ATX]

about 44% of them

[MonkeyF0cker]

The only subforum with sharps here is called the Think Tank. I suggest you take a look some time.

[MonkeyF0cker]

about 44% of them

On -150 ML's maybe...

[ATX]

On -150 ML's maybe...

are you extending me credit?

you must be offering vig free or -105 at most, right?

[ATX]

you can limit me to 5k on sides and bet out double through pinnacle

[MonkeyF0cker]

Obviously, that's over your head. You do realize that hitting 56% of -150 ML's, regardless of vig, is a losing proposition I hope...

[ATX]

Obviously, that's over your head. You do realize that hitting 56% of -150 ML's, regardless of vig, is a losing proposition I hope...

so obviously, you want to book me.

and you won't need anything more than -105, right?

[accuscoresucks]

lack of money management causes pain to many gamblers and posters

and the % used

[MonkeyF0cker]

If I booked, I would certainly not be scared of your action.

[buztah]

If you first learn to develop a winning mindset, the rest will fall into place.

[20Four7]

Picking >_60% long term at -110 is achievable, why do you think it isn't?

picking 60% at -110 is achievable in your own dreams. If you can get to 55, 56 or so you are so far ahead of everyone you should be creaming your jeans..... to get to 60 long term is impossible. I've had 60% seasons but then the 48% season screams you back to reality.

[Nicky Santoro]

I think Patty copy/pasted these answers from previous Nicky posts.

you know what, now that i think of it, it did sound very familiar..

i think patty did steal it..


thanks for the heads up.

patty, stop stealing my stuff..

[Pokerjoe]

There is a serious misunderstanding of the idea of what "beating closing numbers" means, everywhere on the forums.

If you identify +EV spots, and bet them early, you will tend to beat closing numbers. But the beating of the closing number is not where the EV comes from. It is a reflection of the closing market price's long run efficiency compared to the opening price. But it is not the cause of the EV.

Make +EV bets and you'll be fine. Simply making bets that beat the close by a little and you might not be. They aren't the same thing. Beating the close is the poor man's version of making +EV bets.

If you have 10 games where the close is 2 pts off the open, and you got the right side of the open every time, you will be in a +EV spot, yes. But of those 10 games, only some are +EV moves. Some will be public moves, some will be hot-capper-steam moves, etc. Those aren't +EV, they're just, from your POV, random, and thus -EV because of the juice.

Make +EV bets by capping. Don't sit in your chair wacking off to the line changes in your favor thinking "Yee, haw, I'm +EV!"

[donjuan]

Make +EV bets by capping.

Dangerous suggestion to 99%+ of this forum. They wouldn't have the slightest clue where to actually start.

[pat venditto]

donjuan donate 82 points to me so i can buy a pizza.

[MonkeyF0cker]

It's implied that "beating the closing number" refers to bettering the no-vig closer(s) of efficient markets, Pokerjoe...

[lillefty]

the problem for most people isn't picking winners it is poor money management. Betting is an emotional roller coaster ride. The temptations to overreact to wins and losses are great. If you can develop a system to keep from letting your emotions get the best of you , you will do fine. I have my own system of betting which serves me well and keeps you from reloading. I will not print it all here so as not to bore people, but if you want to see it just PM me and I will forward it on to you.

As far as hitting 60% goes , you absolutely can do it in money line sports. The only problem with that is to do it you have to bet big chalk and very few can do it and make $$$. In the -110 sports anyone who tells you they are hitting 60% longterm is full of it!! Period!! Someone can hit 60% for a month maybe 2 if they are really rolling but that is it.

Personally I think if you are trying to hit at 60% of your games you are leaving many winners on the table and you aren't making as much money as you should be. It all depends on your goals and what you are in it for. If just for fun and you are placing 1 bet per week, then yes your win % means a lot. If you are doing it to try to make some extra income then win% doesn't mean anything, it is units won that means more.

[MonkeyF0cker]

What people really don't realize is that in sports handicapping 54% > 60% provided your fundamentals of handicapping are sound...

[ATX]

There is a serious misunderstanding of the idea of what "beating closing numbers" means, everywhere on the forums.

If you identify +EV spots, and bet them early, you will tend to beat closing numbers. But the beating of the closing number is not where the EV comes from. It is a reflection of the closing market price's long run efficiency compared to the opening price. But it is not the cause of the EV.

Make +EV bets and you'll be fine. Simply making bets that beat the close by a little and you might not be. They aren't the same thing. Beating the close is the poor man's version of making +EV bets.

If you have 10 games where the close is 2 pts off the open, and you got the right side of the open every time, you will be in a +EV spot, yes. But of those 10 games, only some are +EV moves. Some will be public moves, some will be hot-capper-steam moves, etc. Those aren't +EV, they're just, from your POV, random, and thus -EV because of the juice.

Make +EV bets by capping. Don't sit in your chair wacking off to the line changes in your favor thinking "Yee, haw, I'm +EV!"

good post.

I completely agree.

the market moves because of me, I don't really care where things end up.

another key to the sports market is knowing which way a line will move over 70% of the time.

this week I hit a lot of opening numbers, last week I hit more closers.

[Karayilan9]

As far as hitting 60% goes , you absolutely can do it in money line sports. The only problem with that is to do it you have to bet big chalk

Where do you get these assumptions from.

You can hit >60% without betting big chalk, its not unheard of, there are cappers that hit this year in year out, they are few in number but its not "impossible".

Anyway, all this talk about theory is good on paper, carrying it out in real life is a different story, most people will read about money management but won't practice it when down 0-5 for the night, they'll chase, throw money on anything and pick teams they would never dreamed of in a sane frame of mind.

Emotional stability is very important, most people will always loose because they can't deal with winning or loosing, when they are doing mediocre money management is practiced but they'll win get confident, think they are the greatest capper the worlds ever seen and start wagering more than their bankroll can handle, before they know it they have turned their great run into a huge loss and left wondering how it happened. Then when on a loosing run they'll loose it again and get wreckless.

If you don't have an iron nerve, can't resist the tempation of greed and can't control yourself when on a good or bad run none of this theory will save you.

When you have control over your actions then all the theory will help.

[reno cool]

Too many fool themselves into thinking it's their lack of discipline or money management that turns them into losers. It isn't. I doubt that there are many who have a long term winning flat bet record yet end up loosing money. Most who play with an edge tend to underbet their bankroll if anything.
The danger is losing players may be wasting their time with crappy handicapping methods. Yet they blame their money management. (something that they figure they can improve on). Don't waste your time. Work on better methods.

[Pokerjoe]

Well, I agree with Reno, but we're all going around in circles here a bit.

If you make -EV bets, you'll lose, no matter your MM.
If you have bad MM, you'll lose, even if your average bet is +EV.

[durito]

If you are gambling for fun the only thing you should worry about is never betting more than you can afford to lose.

[20Four7]

If you are gambling for fun the only thing you should worry about is never betting more than you can afford to lose.

Post of the day durito. Very sharp.