Beating the closing line VS money management

pat venditto · 09-13-09, 06:20 PM

What's more important? Both.

If you chase you will go broke eventually. (It's inevitable)

If you don't chase but bet into -ev lines you are going to lose long term.

Chi_archie · 09-13-09, 06:22 PM

you could also spend 5 hrs a day or more every day, for a long time looking at lines...... working hard to grind out a few bucks here, few bucks there with good lines......

and just blow all that in 2 mins on an emotional halftime bet of a hawaii basketball game...

I'd rather have Money Management first.... why waste all that work?

pat venditto · 09-13-09, 06:24 PM

Archie if you bet 1% of your bankroll per play on -ev lines (Same as playing roulette basically) You are expected to lose and will lose long term. Both are equally important in long term sucess. Of course you can bet 1% on -ev plays and win for a while thats called running hot not making smart bets.

fsugolf · 09-13-09, 06:24 PM

i'd say starting out, learning to have money management is more important

durito · 09-13-09, 06:28 PM

If you aren't making +ev bets no money management system is going to let you win.

Chi_archie · 09-13-09, 06:33 PM

not talking about winning..... some people understand they won't win money long term, but they really really enjoy sports betting.

so unless you really really really enjoy staring at lines all day, and possibly having a compromised social life.... I'd take money management first.....

you can get great lines and still lose, and no one is paying you for all your hrs watching lines.....

different types of people, different perspectives, different strokes

pat venditto · 09-13-09, 06:36 PM

Archie you don't get it. Of course you will lose sometimes when you have a +ev line.

For example At bookmaker

Team a -110
Team b -110

You get +120 on team a or team b regardless of result you've done your job.

You have a 50% chance of winning a +120 bet which is +ev.

Chi_archie · 09-13-09, 06:41 PM

I do get it...

in fact I practice it

but It pains me to see some, worry so much about beating the closing # betting 1% of their bankroll for a few weeks.... go on a losing streak

bet 50-100% of their bankroll on one play and lose it all...... they just wasted ALL their efffort...

my point is, if you are gonna be a serious gambler and try to grind out that profit. make sure you aren't an emotional bettor.... or you may be throwing away about 2,000+ hrs a year to staring at a screen... and just as broke as square charlie betting in the bar who never compares ANY lines and only has his bookie as an out... zero dollars is zero dollars, whether you are sharp or square.....

only difference is, bettor A) may have become a recluse in his pursuit of losing all his money

this thread isn't about what is more important to win $ but

is it worth it?

reno cool · 09-13-09, 06:48 PM

You answered your own question.
If you're a rec bettor and your main concern is to not get in over your head than money management is more important.
But, if you're trying to find an edge money management is at best a secondary concern.

Karayilan9 · 09-13-09, 06:49 PM

Your most important focus has to be picking >60% winners long term, do that and you can add the rest to the recipe.

pat venditto · 09-13-09, 06:51 PM

Kara theres no such thing as picking 60% winners long term at -110. Flip a coin a million times see if you hit heads 60% of the time.

durito · 09-13-09, 06:55 PM

Originally posted by Karayilan9

Your most important focus has to be picking >60% winners long term, do that and you can add the rest to the recipe.

no one hits that at -110, nor should anyone want to

Karayilan9 · 09-13-09, 07:04 PM

Originally posted by pat venditto

Kara theres no such thing as picking 60% winners long term at -110. Flip a coin a million times see if you hit heads 60% of the time.

Picking >_60% long term at -110 is achievable, why do you think it isn't?

Nicky Santoro · 09-13-09, 07:10 PM

patty, i swear to GOD, in each of your 4 posts here, it's hard to believe you are not making money gambling.. you know so much and all your answers are bang on. i don't even need to answer this thread at all cause you said exactly what i would have said..

for a young kid, you really do know a lot about this business.. you know more than 96% of the gamblers here...

keep it up, patty..

durito · 09-13-09, 07:15 PM

Originally posted by Karayilan9

Picking >_60% long term at -110 is achievable, why do you think it isn't?

if you are good enough to identify these plays (and on major sports there aren't many), you can identity the 53-59% plays too. Playing all of them makes you a hell of a lot more money.

ZXCVBNM · 09-13-09, 07:21 PM

What's this -110 covering point spread o/u nonsense, basketball and football are killers most of the time.

Go with soccer and tennis, know your sports and it will be much easier. At least in my opinion.

Karayilan9 · 09-13-09, 07:25 PM

Originally posted by durito

if you are good enough to identify these plays (and on major sports there aren't many), you can identity the 53-59% plays too. Playing all of them makes you a hell of a lot more money.

Maybe it depends on the sport, in soccer with so many leagues in nearly every country in the world there is always a book which can be caught sleeping on some of their lines of the lesser known leagues, if you have connects in these countries, know a few languages and have people feeding you important updates which you won't find in any English language media source you can have an important edge.

I hope you carry on doing well with your capping Durito, you seem a cool guy

accuscoresucks · 09-13-09, 07:27 PM

chi me myself im a chalk man,people say chalk is a killer but it really isnt unless you lose.

i really dont think their is such a thing as beating the line as in more of finding value because if their is no value numbers dont mean squat

Swinging Johnson · 09-13-09, 09:53 PM

Originally posted by Nicky Santoro

patty, i swear to GOD, in each of your 4 posts here, it's hard to believe you are not making money gambling.. you know so much and all your answers are bang on. i don't even need to answer this thread at all cause you said exactly what i would have said..

for a young kid, you really do know a lot about this business.. you know more than 96% of the gamblers here...

keep it up, patty..

Nicky, I think Patty is seeing someone right now. Let it happen naturally...these things take time.

Chi_archie · 09-13-09, 09:58 PM

you can KNOW all the right things to do and say

but you DO all the wrong things and go broke time and time again

reno cool · 09-14-09, 03:16 AM

I doubt that many such people KNOW all the right things to do. Although, I'm sure they think they do.

Mikail · 09-14-09, 03:23 AM

Excellent thread!

Chi_archie · 09-15-09, 12:49 PM

lack of money management causes pain to many gamblers and posters

BestPlay2day · 09-15-09, 12:55 PM

Money management is what kills most bettors. People need to learn if they didn't like a late night game before they lost, why bet it now just because you want to get your losses back? I think this is one area I improved on the most over the last couple of years. There's always a new set of game tomorrow, just do your research, make the bets you like and walk away for the day.

sickler · 09-15-09, 01:22 PM

Don't just think beating the closing number. Think getting the best number period.

Hit the openers at the books where they come out first.

themajormt · 09-15-09, 01:32 PM

Money management is superior to beating the closing number in my opinion... Betting $500 on the USC game when you only have $3,000 in your account is stupid... Not that I would know just sayin

Regul8er · 09-15-09, 01:46 PM

I wish I could implement better money management skills. Everytime I post up somewhere I tell myself it's going to be different this time, but it really never is. I'm just thankful that I'm not dumb enough to gamble more then I can afford to lose, or I'd be a barreled in degenerate. I'd say I only gamble around 2-3% of my annual income, definately recreational.

Trojan · 09-15-09, 01:50 PM

Archie. If you dont know what you're doing it doesnt matter if you are trying to beat the closing line or worrying about money management. The juice will eventually bust you out. Look into the thread where Nicky shows the 3 ways to make money long term. There is your answer what is more important.

To the guy who claims winning >60% long term is achievable. Tell me that you are kidding so I know if I can take you seriously as a poster.

LT Profits · 09-15-09, 01:52 PM

Originally posted by Karayilan9

Your most important focus has to be picking >60% winners long term, do that and you can add the rest to the recipe.

Except that picking 60% in foots/bases is impossible with any reasonable volume.

LT Profits · 09-15-09, 01:57 PM

Originally posted by Karayilan9

Maybe it depends on the sport, in soccer with so many leagues in nearly every country in the world there is always a book which can be caught sleeping on some of their lines of the lesser known leagues, if you have connects in these countries, know a few languages and have people feeding you important updates which you won't find in any English language media source you can have an important edge.

I hope you carry on doing well with your capping Durito, you seem a cool guy

Oh, you are talking about Money Line sports.

In that case, 60% is attainable, but hitting that percentage does not guarantee a profit.

MonkeyF0cker · 09-15-09, 03:44 PM

The two go hand in hand. See Kelly Criterion.

MonkeyF0cker · 09-15-09, 03:48 PM

That said, if you're a recreational bettor, why would you waste your time trying to chase steam if you don't quantify your edge and bet accordingly? It'd be entirely pointless. Just make your play(s) with what you feel comfortable losing, sit back, and watch the game(s).

Scorpion · 09-15-09, 04:11 PM

money management and closing lines,... its all bullshit
AS sick gambler says to win in this business you have to work hard, handicap the gams, and pick winners, that is the only guys, you have to handicap and pick winners!

MonkeyF0cker · 09-15-09, 04:21 PM

Originally posted by Scorpion

money management and closing lines,... its all bullshit
AS sick gambler says to win in this business you have to work hard, handicap the gams, and pick winners, that is the only guys, you have to handicap and pick winners!

Originally posted by Scorpion

I am asking my grandmother for another loan
I am broke.

Coincidence? Highly doubtful.