NFL week 02- Contrarian Angles

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Successful week 01 from the guys who posted. 5-2 ATS by my count.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Going to try this as a weekly thread.

Good news is that I don't think we should be worried about too much traffic on this site. Now a smaller community. Handful of guys that might have opinions.

Just looking for a few things:
*State your play. "Fading A, backing B".
*Give a reason to FADE the anti-team.
*Give a reason why you think it may play out differently than most might think.

Thanks!

[edawg]

Patriots loss vs division vs Steelers won vs division in overtime. Everyone can't understand why Patriots are slight favorite or PK ?take Patriots.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Patriots loss vs division vs Steelers won vs division in overtime. Everyone can't understand why Patriots are slight favorite or PK ?take Patriots.

Thank you, edawg. Hope you hit again this week.

Yes, I think there are head-scratcher lines in NFL every week. My two notes on this game:

1) TJ Watt Out. I listened to some of the Steelers radio. I can say that Steeler D played their guts out. How much do they have left?
2) Belichick is normally very terse in his post-games. He actually showed some optimism after loss in Miami. Mentioned how they crossed the 50 6 or 7x but didn't capitalize.

[pologq]

i am taking the jags +4.5 and other adj point spreads. i am not sold on the colts and jags always play them tough.

[Nate rasta]

Atl +10..
Rams are still happy from their sb win and not playing full throttle right now.Falcons playing with motivation as a new team ,until they realize there not that great of a team

[TheLock]

Lotta contrarian plays week 2

Jets +6
49’ers -10 (lol)
Packers -10 (lol)
Patriots -1

[pologq]

Atl +10..
Rams are still happy from their sb win and not playing full throttle right now.Falcons playing with motivation as a new team ,until they realize there not that great of a team

i am not laying 10 with the rams right now. i need to see them throttle someone before i do so.

[Nate rasta]

i am not laying 10 with the rams right now. i need to see them throttle someone before i do so.

Yeah I said I'm taking Atlanta +10
rams are still soaking in their Super Bowl and aren't playing fully motivated yet Atlanta I think will be play motivated for the first few weeks

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Playing: 271 Tampa Bay -2.5

(Fading: New Orl)

Road Fav might look like a strange "contrarian" play here. My logic:
*New ORL is too much of a comfortable play based on the Home Dog rule. Watch for a lot of hacks listing Saints as a play. And they'll push em as a Teaser leg to sound smart.

My angle is that this # is as short as humanly possible. I know the Saints had a choppy 1st game, winning late. But I'm focusing more at the Buc side.

Opening game at Dallas was so easy that they didn't have to open up the offense. Pedestrian performance designed to get the job done. Think they'll display their numerous weapons more here, if they have to.

Thanks to everyone for posting, and Good Luck. I repeat that the # of mush-men out there is more than I've ever seen b4.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Patriots loss vs division vs Steelers won vs division in overtime. Everyone can't understand why Patriots are slight favorite or PK ?take Patriots.

I'm gonna list edawg's picks at New Eng (-1.5). That's the # when he posted. Just want to be on record, GL w/ Pats.

[KRIT]

Bro Bucs are not a contrarion play. Everyone will be on Bucs as a short road fave. Public is already on them pretty big.

Not sure what your definition of it is, but a good sneaky play this week is Jets +5.5 and Jags +4.

[StackinGreen]

I'm playing sides in the first games on Sunday, totals in the late games, and Packers ATS at night.

[pologq]

Yeah I said I'm taking Atlanta +10
rams are still soaking in their Super Bowl and aren't playing fully motivated yet Atlanta I think will be play motivated for the first few weeks

i agreed with you. sorry i did not phrase it that way.

[pologq]

Bro Bucs are not a contrarion play. Everyone will be on Bucs as a short road fave. Public is already on them pretty big.

Not sure what your definition of it is, but a good sneaky play this week is Jets +5.5 and Jags +4.

Jags

they could surprise this week but the points are nice too

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Bro Bucs are not a contrarion play. Everyone will be on Bucs as a short road fave. Public is already on them pretty big.

Not sure what your definition of it is, but a good sneaky play this week is Jets +5.5 and Jags +4.

Not saying you're wrong. Just expressing my opinion.

My vantage point on this might be a little different from others. I've been watching Football lines long enough. If you go back to the NFL databases from the 1980s & 1990s...NFL Home Dogs approached 55% ATS.

Lines clearly weren't as sharp back then. There wasn't a lot of juice different than -110/-110. Pricing errors happened. Strong road teams were favored more heavily than they should have been. Small road favs were such b/c they were the "better" team (instead of adjusting HFA to make them small road dogs).

My point is that those NFL Home Dogs are part of the historical database. Back then (late 1990s), the sharps mostly thought that it was Home Dog or pass. It was very hard to rationalize playing Road Fav when that appeared to go against the math.

I believe the modern line is much sharper. I don't think Home Dogs represent some inherent underlying value. It's a matter of capping the game to the proper #.

All that said, I think there really is an under-current of mid-range bettors who think "Home Dog or pass." When I see a Home Dog that people will comfortably mark down, I think otherwise. That's my logic here on anti-Saints.

Not saying I'm right. We'll find out soon enough. That's why they play the games.

PS: I don't put any stock in the Bet% that some sites list.

[StackinGreen]

PS: I don't put any stock in the Bet% that some sites list.

This brings up an interesting point and a question I have: what % bets or % money locations are there on the internet that you think are reliable? Are there other reliable contrarian indicators that are expressed as straightforward numbers that you like?

[pologq]

saints beat the bucs and brady in the regular season yet are dogs at home. i think they want you to take the saints based on that but then again i am sure there are those who love betting brady giving less than a fg against anyone.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

This brings up an interesting point and a question I have: what % bets or % money locations are there on the internet that you think are reliable? Are there other reliable contrarian indicators that are expressed as straightforward numbers that you like?

Green, that's a fair question. My response:

1) I'm not aware of any Bet% distribution that is accessible and/or particularly useful. You see these #s that are all over the board. Have to wonder about the source.
2) My understanding is that the $ amts and particular bets from Sharp accts...make for very important information at the sharper betting shops. That is useful information that they can use to tweak their board.
3) As for the bets I'm personally listing...I'm really taking a stance of listening to anyone I deem to be a HAMBURGER and then going ANTI if I like the other side.

As an example:
*Week 1: Nick Wright liked the Dolphins. Spent time where he gave his reasons. If he's just listing two skill-position names, that's not enough for me.
...PS: I'm happy w/ that Pats pick in Wk01, just didn't work out.
*Week 2: Have seen multiple Youtube videos where "square" self-described sharps list New Orl. As I say above, I view them as a "playoff-contending" Home Dog that a lot of guys will have on their card.

[jackpot269]

Dolphins +3.5

This right up is from easy rider in another thread. It was what I HAD READ too about the D backs also think the Fish have a better D than they saw last week and could struggle on the O-side too. Also
Could be a coming out big day for Tua, and put the critics on someone else for a while, if he gets a good start early, those receivers make it a long day for the Ravens D!!

The Ravens' cornerback situation is tenuous heading into Sunday's game, as three top cornerbacks are listed as questionable. Marlon Humphrey (groin), Marcus Peters (knee), and Brandon Stephens (quad) all missed practice time this week.

Peters is coming back from last year's knee injury and practiced fully for the first time this year on Thursday, but was limited Friday. Humphrey was added to the injury report Thursday as a limited participant and sat out Friday. Stephens was limited in Wednesday's practice but sidelined Thursday and Friday.

Baltimore needs all the help it can get at cornerback with talented Dolphins receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle coming to town. Hill is a six-time Pro Bowler and one of the fastest players in the league and Waddle topped 1,000 receiving yards as a rookie last season.

Another reason to take the FIsh

[budwiser]

Thank you, edawg. Hope you hit again this week.

Yes, I think there are head-scratcher lines in NFL every week. My two notes on this game:

1) TJ Watt Out. I listened to some of the Steelers radio. I can say that Steeler D played their guts out. How much do they have left?
2) Belichick is normally very terse in his post-games. He actually showed some optimism after loss in Miami. Mentioned how they crossed the 50 6 or 7x but didn't capitalize.

3) teams that play in overtime are generally death the next week. that overtime was as hard fought as it gets, as you said in 1). just putting in teams that play overtime the previous week have a bad ats record
4) patriots have won 6 of the last 7 against the steelers. granted that was with brady and ben, but it's still hoodie vs tomlin

[Enkhbat]

Is this topic only for sides?

I have a play on the totals side in the Steeler/Patriots game. I like the under a lot, we have 2 offenses that pretty bad, the defenses are really good. I know T.J.Watt is out but I don't think that's gonna matter, if anything with him out there is less chance of INT or fumble return TD.

[MiDNiTe]

Like the Bucs also, won comfortably but Brady was very rusty and Brady was probably never going to be playing his best with the personal leave to save his marriage so expecting him to be alot better this game

[The J-Dizzle]

Patriots loss vs division vs Steelers won vs division in overtime. Everyone can't understand why Patriots are slight favorite or PK ?take Patriots.

Even though I don't like the Pats offense at all I like your reasoning. Steelers won the TO-battle 5 to 0 last week but barely won. They won't win it 5-0 again this week.

[The J-Dizzle]

3) teams that play in overtime are generally death the next week. that overtime was as hard fought as it gets, as you said in 1). just putting in teams that play overtime the previous week have a bad ats record
4) patriots have won 6 of the last 7 against the steelers. granted that was with brady and ben, but it's still hoodie vs tomlin

Do we have actual stats on that "overtime bad ATS record next week"? Looks interesting if it's actually something there.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Is this topic only for sides?

I have a play on the totals side in the Steeler/Patriots game. I like the under a lot, we have 2 offenses that pretty bad, the defenses are really good. I know T.J.Watt is out but I don't think that's gonna matter, if anything with him out there is less chance of INT or fumble return TD.

Enk, $$ is green. Side or total, post what you think is good info.

GL w/ your plays. And go, Wazzu!

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Do we have actual stats on that "overtime bad ATS record next week"? Looks interesting if it's actually something there.

I don't think it's too far off 50/50 in recent years.

[budwiser]

I don't think it's too far off 50/50 in recent years.

Maybe very recent

I'm pretty sure there's an ats out there teams ot previous week poor ats

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Maybe very recent

I'm pretty sure there's an ats out there teams ot previous week poor ats

Heard Ralph Michaels recently. He is in the Tout business, so people can think what they want. Guy does have a database w/ good info, and he quotes that periodically.

I think he quoted "NFL Teams off Overtime" as 13-17 ATS in L30 games. Hope I didn't mis-quote that. Will try to track down the clip.

[budwiser]

Heard Ralph Michaels recently. He is in the Tout business, so people can think what they want. Guy does have a database w/ good info, and he quotes that periodically.

I think he quoted "NFL Teams off Overtime" as 13-17 ATS in L30 games. Hope I didn't mis-quote that. Will try to track down the clip.

Cool
Yeah look.last 100 too maybe

All.good

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Some more good picks in here. Games going Final:

*edawg covers the early # on New Eng. Good insight.

[jackpot269]

I almost posted in the 3rd and said I lost, but looking good now!! GO FISH

[ChuckyTheGoat]

i am taking the jags +4.5 and other adj point spreads. i am not sold on the colts and jags always play them tough.

Props to you, Polo! What a call. I know the Jags have some talent, didn't expect Colts to implode like this.

O/U on Jim Irsay's bar tab this evening??

*Bucs kneel it out. I maybe got lucky w/ Kamara missing game.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I almost posted in the 3rd and said I lost, but looking good now!! GO FISH

They came all the way back. Didn't know Marino would suit up for the 2h. 42-38.

[jackpot269]

Dolphins +3.5

This right up is from easy rider in another thread. It was what I HAD READ too about the D backs also think the Fish have a better D than they saw last week and could struggle on the O-side too. Also
Could be a coming out big day for Tua, and put the critics on someone else for a while, if he gets a good start early, those receivers make it a long day for the Ravens D!!

The Ravens' cornerback situation is tenuous heading into Sunday's game, as three top cornerbacks are listed as questionable. Marlon Humphrey (groin), Marcus Peters (knee), and Brandon Stephens (quad) all missed practice time this week.

Peters is coming back from last year's knee injury and practiced fully for the first time this year on Thursday, but was limited Friday. Humphrey was added to the injury report Thursday as a limited participant and sat out Friday. Stephens was limited in Wednesday's practice but sidelined Thursday and Friday.

Baltimore needs all the help it can get at cornerback with talented Dolphins receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle coming to town. Hill is a six-time Pro Bowler and one of the fastest players in the league and Waddle topped 1,000 receiving yards as a rookie last season.

Another reason to take the FIsh

Wow!! first half I was thinking damn that was a dumb call!! Looking good now