NFL week 02- Contrarian Angles

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Like the Bucs also, won comfortably but Brady was very rusty and Brady was probably never going to be playing his best with the personal leave to save his marriage so expecting him to be alot better this game

Nice hit, Midnite.

*How would you like to be a fly on the wall for Tommy's conversation with Gisele?

[pologq]

Props to you, Polo! What a call. I know the Jags have some talent, didn't expect Colts to implode like this.

O/U on Jim Irsay's bar tab this evening??

*Bucs kneel it out. I maybe got lucky w/ Kamara missing game.

$200 at a medicore bar

i am glad i called it earlier too before the line went down for the ML.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Cool
Yeah look.last 100 too maybe

All.good

wiser:

*I looked into this some more. I think I MIGHT be mis-quoting the Ralph Michaels stat.

I think the stat Ralph quoted might be "13-17 ATS when team is off a TIE".

Obviously, "Off Tie" is a subset of "Off Overtime". Just that Tie means they played the full allocation of Time, and they changed that rule a few years ago.

Anyway, I looked at it. I found that in 2021, "NFL teams off an OT game" were 26-15 ATS (3 pushes) in 44 qualified games. So, no clear problem where NFL teams fall off after an Overtime.

As for Off the Tie (today), Colts looked miserable but HOU looked pretty good.

[pologq]

Houston is surprisingly competitive. Lovie Smith has them playing hard.

[TheLock]

Lotta contrarian plays week 2

Jets +6
49’ers -10 (lol)
Packers -10 (lol)
Patriots -1

All of these were winners.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

All of these were winners.

Props, Lock. I was going to do the update tonite.

Wanted to make sure I didn't miss one. Pretty sure the whole Wk02 thread produced Winners. Will confirm tonite.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

By my count, 10-0 ATS in this week's thread. At least one repeat on the Bucs.

Edawg and Polo BB winners in Weeks 1 & 2.

[pologq]

By my count, 10-0 ATS in this week's thread. At least one repeat on the Bucs.

Edawg and Polo BB winners in Weeks 1 & 2.

damn 10-0 in this thread? we need to start touting

[ChuckyTheGoat]

damn 10-0 in this thread? we need to start touting

Let's do it:

[pologq]

tout names and porn names for dudes all sound the same

[eddycash]

I have a ml parlay closing with the titans ml paying $4700, thinking I should hedge with Bills ml for some amount but it's just so expensive.

[eddycash]

What do u guys think? Maybe Bills ml $1700 to win $395? My original parlay was for $100

[ChuckyTheGoat]

What do u guys think? Maybe Bills ml $1700 to win $395? My original parlay was for $100

I personally think that Bills are +Value tonite. Very strong team.

Your numbers seem reasonable. Depends on your handicap of the game. Something like $450 guarantees you to break-even. Your $1700 would guarantee you +$300 Net (or +$3000 if Titans win).

Good spot to be in. The one caveat I issue on HEDGES:
*Don't go crazy on the hedge-size. Remember that juice always erodes bottom line. Only bet into value.

Some guys never grasp this. GL whichever way you go.

[eddycash]

I ended up doing $2300 to win $500 on the Bill's. So if titans win I net $2400 profit.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I ended up doing $2300 to win $500 on the Bill's. So if titans win I net $2400 profit.

GL. Nice position to be in.

[eddycash]

Thanks bro it was still painful to bet $2300 for $500 lol

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Thanks bro it was still painful to bet $2300 for $500 lol

Eddy, nice bet. Glad you hit.

[eddycash]

Thanks I was thinking I hedged too much in the first quarter but glad I did.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Thanks I was thinking I hedged too much in the first quarter but glad I did.

The mind is an amazing thing, isn't it? Everything looks crystal-clear 24 hours later.

If you were gonna choose to hedge, I think you got down an amount that made you feel comfortable. Nice to earn some profit for your efforts.

[Nate rasta]

How bout my pick in atl +10 , that cashed