NFL week 02- Contrarian Angles

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  • ChuckyTheGoat
    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
    • 04-04-11
    • 38211

    #36
    Originally posted by MiDNiTe
    Like the Bucs also, won comfortably but Brady was very rusty and Brady was probably never going to be playing his best with the personal leave to save his marriage so expecting him to be alot better this game
    Nice hit, Midnite.

    *How would you like to be a fly on the wall for Tommy's conversation with Gisele?
    Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
    Comment
    • pologq
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 10-07-12
      • 19899

      #37
      Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat
      Props to you, Polo! What a call. I know the Jags have some talent, didn't expect Colts to implode like this.

      O/U on Jim Irsay's bar tab this evening??

      *Bucs kneel it out. I maybe got lucky w/ Kamara missing game.
      $200 at a medicore bar

      i am glad i called it earlier too before the line went down for the ML.
      Comment
      • ChuckyTheGoat
        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
        • 04-04-11
        • 38211

        #38
        Originally posted by budwiser
        Cool
        Yeah look.last 100 too maybe

        All.good
        wiser:

        *I looked into this some more. I think I MIGHT be mis-quoting the Ralph Michaels stat.

        I think the stat Ralph quoted might be "13-17 ATS when team is off a TIE".

        Obviously, "Off Tie" is a subset of "Off Overtime". Just that Tie means they played the full allocation of Time, and they changed that rule a few years ago.

        Anyway, I looked at it. I found that in 2021, "NFL teams off an OT game" were 26-15 ATS (3 pushes) in 44 qualified games. So, no clear problem where NFL teams fall off after an Overtime.

        As for Off the Tie (today), Colts looked miserable but HOU looked pretty good.
        Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
        Comment
        • pologq
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 10-07-12
          • 19899

          #39
          Houston is surprisingly competitive. Lovie Smith has them playing hard.
          Comment
          • TheLock
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 04-06-08
            • 14427

            #40
            Originally posted by TheLock
            Lotta contrarian plays week 2

            Jets +6
            49’ers -10 (lol)
            Packers -10 (lol)
            Patriots -1
            All of these were winners.
            Comment
            • ChuckyTheGoat
              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
              • 04-04-11
              • 38211

              #41
              Originally posted by TheLock
              All of these were winners.
              Props, Lock. I was going to do the update tonite.

              Wanted to make sure I didn't miss one. Pretty sure the whole Wk02 thread produced Winners. Will confirm tonite.
              Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
              Comment
              • ChuckyTheGoat
                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                • 04-04-11
                • 38211

                #42
                By my count, 10-0 ATS in this week's thread. At least one repeat on the Bucs.

                Edawg and Polo BB winners in Weeks 1 & 2.
                Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                Comment
                • pologq
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 10-07-12
                  • 19899

                  #43
                  Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat
                  By my count, 10-0 ATS in this week's thread. At least one repeat on the Bucs.

                  Edawg and Polo BB winners in Weeks 1 & 2.
                  damn 10-0 in this thread? we need to start touting
                  Comment
                  • ChuckyTheGoat
                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                    • 04-04-11
                    • 38211

                    #44
                    Originally posted by pologq
                    damn 10-0 in this thread? we need to start touting
                    Let's do it:

                    Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                    Comment
                    • pologq
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 10-07-12
                      • 19899

                      #45
                      tout names and porn names for dudes all sound the same
                      Comment
                      • eddycash
                        SBR MVP
                        • 11-06-13
                        • 4540

                        #46
                        I have a ml parlay closing with the titans ml paying $4700, thinking I should hedge with Bills ml for some amount but it's just so expensive.
                        Comment
                        • eddycash
                          SBR MVP
                          • 11-06-13
                          • 4540

                          #47
                          What do u guys think? Maybe Bills ml $1700 to win $395? My original parlay was for $100
                          Comment
                          • ChuckyTheGoat
                            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                            • 04-04-11
                            • 38211

                            #48
                            Originally posted by eddycash
                            What do u guys think? Maybe Bills ml $1700 to win $395? My original parlay was for $100
                            I personally think that Bills are +Value tonite. Very strong team.

                            Your numbers seem reasonable. Depends on your handicap of the game. Something like $450 guarantees you to break-even. Your $1700 would guarantee you +$300 Net (or +$3000 if Titans win).

                            Good spot to be in. The one caveat I issue on HEDGES:
                            *Don't go crazy on the hedge-size. Remember that juice always erodes bottom line. Only bet into value.

                            Some guys never grasp this. GL whichever way you go.
                            Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                            Comment
                            • eddycash
                              SBR MVP
                              • 11-06-13
                              • 4540

                              #49
                              I ended up doing $2300 to win $500 on the Bill's. So if titans win I net $2400 profit.
                              Comment
                              • ChuckyTheGoat
                                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                • 04-04-11
                                • 38211

                                #50
                                Originally posted by eddycash
                                I ended up doing $2300 to win $500 on the Bill's. So if titans win I net $2400 profit.
                                GL. Nice position to be in.
                                Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                                Comment
                                • eddycash
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 11-06-13
                                  • 4540

                                  #51
                                  Thanks bro it was still painful to bet $2300 for $500 lol
                                  Comment
                                  • ChuckyTheGoat
                                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                    • 04-04-11
                                    • 38211

                                    #52
                                    Originally posted by eddycash
                                    Thanks bro it was still painful to bet $2300 for $500 lol
                                    Eddy, nice bet. Glad you hit.
                                    Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                                    Comment
                                    • eddycash
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 11-06-13
                                      • 4540

                                      #53
                                      Thanks I was thinking I hedged too much in the first quarter but glad I did.
                                      Comment
                                      • ChuckyTheGoat
                                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                        • 04-04-11
                                        • 38211

                                        #54
                                        Originally posted by eddycash
                                        Thanks I was thinking I hedged too much in the first quarter but glad I did.
                                        The mind is an amazing thing, isn't it? Everything looks crystal-clear 24 hours later.

                                        If you were gonna choose to hedge, I think you got down an amount that made you feel comfortable. Nice to earn some profit for your efforts.
                                        Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                                        Comment
                                        • Nate rasta
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 05-30-22
                                          • 2952

                                          #55
                                          How bout my pick in atl +10 , that cashed
                                          Comment
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