Why Is Dallas Only -3 Over San Francisco??? Please Explain This To Me

[d2bets]

Sharp money on SF.

Only at +3.5-110 or better.

[d2bets]

using just this season's data, my model set the line at dallas -6.5
the past 3 seasons, 49ers -0.5

with the line being cowboys -3, if i were just going with this season's data, then betting cowboys -3 would be my pick

however, using the past 3 seasons worth of data, 49ers +3 would be the play

my model is most accurate (and profitable) when using the past 3 season's worth of data, but i run it both ways and only make bets when both subsets of data produce the same pick

lastly, dallas' recent form is a lot higher compared to this season, last season, and 2019 season. conversely, 49ers's recent form is worse than this season, last season, and 2019 season. everything must return back to average. cowboys are doing better than they should be. 49ers are doing worse than they should be.

all those factors point to 49ers +3

but, i'm a huge dallas fan. i ain't betting against my boys.

Sounds like a coinflip at -3.

[semibluff]

Huh, how can a 6% advantage equate to 0 points?

C'mon man! Even the basic half-point calculator will tell you some margins of victory are more likely than others. A 3 point victory is close to a 9% probability. Thus if a team was -3 -120 at home then moving the game to a neutral venue would likely shift the win probability close to 6% and change the spread to -3 +100. If the spread was on -2 -105 to begin with then moving the game to a neutral venue could see the spread change to +2 -115 because small margins of victory or a tie are much less likely.

[pavyracer]

This is a classic carrot stick line by the books. Home team -3. How come they lose? And if they win it will by a lot!

Squares lining up to place bets on easy money!

[clockwise1965]

I have no confidence in Dak.

[stevenash]

Smack the under and forget about it.

[johnnyvegas13]

I think niners win and then give packers all they can handle

[chase1]

Don't even worry about the line. SF beats the overrated and inconsistent Cowboys. Only wins against teams in the playoffs were NE and Philly twice. The NE one was their best but not impressed at all with the wins over Philly. Especially the last game when Philly rested their starters. Lost to the Bucs, Chiefs, Raiders and Cards.

[pavyracer]

[jjgold]

Paver lol

[pavyracer]

Paver lol

I called it first. Guy sees Dallas -3 and he thinks he discovered easy cash. He bets the "soft line" thinking he outsmarted the books!

[jjgold]

I lost too

Sucker here

[pavyracer]

I lost too

Sucker here

Ah yes..you run multiple models and came up with Dallas -7.5. Need to call LT Profits to show you how to model.

[jjgold]

Yep

[Kermit]

What kind of dumbass shit was that? You fake the punt and then waste 40 seconds and get a delay of game.

[seaborneq]

What kind of dumbass shit was that? You fake the punt and then waste 40 seconds and get a delay of game.

Mike McCarthy at his best. Even I knew whatever play the special team was going to run there was going to lose yards

[Git Lo]

Hell of a game but not in a good or bad way. Cowboys most post season penalties in their history and almost took this game twice.

[rake922]

what was the 2nd half line? Dal -2.5 ? please anybody?

[GunShard]

Prescott should have ran out of bounds. He got selfish.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">What a way to end the game! <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/SuperWildCard?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc %5Etfw">#SuperWildCard</a> <a href="https://t.co/esKKpbkrQn">pic.twitter.com/esKKpbkrQn</a></p>&mdash; NFL (@NFL) <a href="https://twitter.com/NFL/status/1482879920975986690?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" >January 17, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[Kindred]

For the life of me... I don't even understand this spread??? At one book it already dropped to -2.5

What the hell am I missing??? It's full throttle Dallas VS Frisco.

I never understood the Georgia -3 line..... and now Vegas throws Dallas -3 at you??

Cause Vegas knows better than you...or me since I had dallas..

Lesson, never doubt vegas. Maybe it's rigged, maybe they are just smarter, bottom line is Vegas wins...

[Fred The Hammer]

How come nobody ever throws back to back Hail Marys in a spot like that? That was perfect almost....from their 40 with :14 left. Unless you run all over like Mahomes then you'll get 2 chances. Set up your leapers beforehand in 2 units. If you don't get the first one then atleast 2-3 fresh receivers come in for the 2nd Hail Mary

[Kindred]

For the life of me... I don't even understand this spread??? At one book it already dropped to -2.5

What the hell am I missing??? It's full throttle Dallas VS Frisco.

I never understood the Georgia -3 line..... and now Vegas throws Dallas -3 at you??

Every now and then "vegas" will give you a "gimme" but for the most part they don't give they take. If it looks too easy thats' when you should be worried. If it looks like coin flip, 50/50 then that's what it is, if it looks like "easy money" you should by rule of thumb bet against the easy money and vegas..

I had cowgirls thought they were that much better, despite almost 20 years watching lines and vegas tease people. I thought despite the warning signs cowgrils that much better at worse they'd win by 3 and I'd push...learn from my mistakes, vegas doesn't give away money, books do and if you don't take advantage you can't come out ahead. Yet risk your money with the public against vegas...vegas doesn't lose! They have giant casinos built for that sole reason. People as smart as you, literally as smart if not smarter, bet against vegas and lost. therefore huge buildings and the casino mecca of the world.If you okay with funding that all good, if not then think and act different then those that came before you.

[chase1]

It was shocking. Guess they wanted a one shot from the 20-25yd line but way to risky and it bit them in the ass. McCarthy or offensive coordinator are to blame as well as Dak not handing the ball to the ref. Just a complete disaster they will have to live with the whole offseason.

[Demonata]

49ers didn't even impress me.

[seaborneq]

Prescott should have ran out of bounds. He got selfish.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">What a way to end the game! <a rel="nofollow" href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/SuperWildCard?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc %5Etfw">#SuperWildCard</a> <a rel="nofollow" href="https://t.co/esKKpbkrQn">pic.twitter.com/esKKpbkrQn</a></p>&mdash; NFL (@NFL) <a rel="nofollow" href="https://twitter.com/NFL/status/1482879920975986690?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" >January 17, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Dallas didn’t have a pass play for that defense. There was no chance of getting out of bounds again

[Kindred]

Every now and then "vegas" will give you a "gimme" but for the most part they don't give they take. If it looks too easy thats' when you should be worried. If it looks like coin flip, 50/50 then that's what it is, if it looks like "easy money" you should by rule of thumb bet against the easy money and vegas..

I had cowgirls thought they were that much better, despite almost 20 years watching lines and vegas tease people. I thought despite the warning signs cowgrils that much better at worse they'd win by 3 and I'd push...learn from my mistakes, vegas doesn't give away money, books do and if you don't take advantage you can't come out ahead. Yet risk your money with the public against vegas...vegas doesn't lose! They have giant casinos built for that sole reason. People as smart as you, literally as smart if not smarter, bet against vegas and lost. therefore huge buildings and the casino mecca of the world.If you okay with funding that all good, if not then think and act different then those that came before you.

I had some serious typos in that...but rather than fix them I can just set it straight. Vegas is not your source for easy money, long term you'll lose. I'm drunk and nobody can change that fact. SBR is the only place for honest gambling advice. I wish I knew what I was goigg to say, but SBR at Hard Rock has to be the most fun and most honest place a gambler can find himselfl/herself it's just that honest!

[Seattle Slew]

Exactly what I said. Give yourself two chances.

How come nobody ever throws back to back Hail Marys in a spot like that? That was perfect almost....from their 40 with :14 left. Unless you run all over like Mahomes then you'll get 2 chances. Set up your leapers beforehand in 2 units. If you don't get the first one then atleast 2-3 fresh receivers come in for the 2nd Hail Mary

[Kindred]

Maybe hopefully it's just my PC...but I just lost complete control. Total insanity..out of nowhere.

Not sure why, but if i'm gong to lose my mind I'm happy it's here with kindred souls.

[Kindred]

So I was wrong and lost on dallas...why the penetrate am I allowed to still post here???

[chase1]

49ers didn't even impress me.

Niners impressed me. Controlled the whole game until almost collapsing in the 4th. Dallas got a gift when they called a flag on the QB sneak or the game would have been over right there. It isn't supposed to look pretty. The went on the road and won again. Having said that, I think GB will beat them. Even though the GB had to kick a game winning FG when they met earlier this year. SF vs GB is a lot more entertaining but that's just me

[gauchojake]

Niners basically dismantled two of the best defenses in the NFL two weeks in a row even with Jimmy G at QB.

[Demonata]

Niners impressed me. Controlled the whole game until almost collapsing in the 4th. Dallas got a gift when they called a flag on the QB sneak or the game would have been over right there. It isn't supposed to look pretty. The went on the road and won again. Having said that, I think GB will beat them. Even though the GB had to kick a game winning FG when they met earlier this year. SF vs GB is a lot more entertaining but that's just me

Packers are my team so I hope you are right!

[Kindred]

cause as hard as it is to get into your millennial communist head, vegas knows more than you

[ThaTopMoron]

you always question the spread





for the record, I won't be touching this game. Too unpredictable with a game on the line involving Dak and Jimmy G

i was right lol

jimmy threw away momentum

and dak is an idiot

[gauchojake]

+4.5 at green Bay.