Why Is Dallas Only -3 Over San Francisco??? Please Explain This To Me

[TheMoneyShot]

For the life of me... I don't even understand this spread??? At one book it already dropped to -2.5

What the hell am I missing??? It's full throttle Dallas VS Frisco.

I never understood the Georgia -3 line..... and now Vegas throws Dallas -3 at you??

[jrgum3]

The line is what it is because I think the Niners are the type of team that will give Dallas trouble. That's why the line is what it is and why sharps are on the Niners.

[ThaTopMoron]

you always question the spread

They're showing all these stats on ESPN... lol

Alabama leads the series VS Georgia: 42-25-4

Alabama Has Won Last 7 Meetings VS Georgia

In College Football Playoffs 2018 Alabama Defeated Georiga

Nick Saban VS Formers Assistants 25-1

Nick Saban VS Kirby Smart 4-0

How in the hell is Georgia the favorite??? lol

for the record, I won't be touching this game. Too unpredictable with a game on the line involving Dak and Jimmy G

[ChuckyTheGoat]

The line is what it is because I think the Niners are the type of team that will give Dallas trouble. That's why the line is what it is and why sharps are on the Niners.

Full respect, Shot. Niners have been a pretty tough Dog. Beat the Rams 2x, too physical for the Rams.

I hear you. Cowboys are tempting, # looks short. Remember that Jimmy G bangs porn-stars unapologetically.

[semibluff]

Dallas is a -155; +135 favourite over San Francisco. That money line equates to a spread of Dallas -3 with San Francisco slightly favoured -116 to Dallas -104. If Dallas was -165 the spread would be even at -110 apiece. Dallas would need to be -185, or shorter, to push the spread into -3.5 territory...at least on normal Totals values. JerryWorld is 1 of the smaller home field advantages so 58% chance for Dallas sounds about right.

[jjgold]

SF very good defense

Very good QB and running game

[GzaTheGenius]

Deebo Samuel

Honestly of all the game this weekend I think the 49ers are the only away team that will win

Cards I guess have a chance too but they are all banged up and not the team they were to start the year

[Orbison]

49ers play in best division by far while the East is the 2nd worst

[jrgum3]

Full respect, Shot. Niners have been a pretty tough Dog. Beat the Rams 2x, too physical for the Rams.

I hear you. Cowboys are tempting, # looks short. Remember that Jimmy G bangs porn-stars unapologetically.

If Jimmy G manages the game and doesn't turn the ball over the Niners are a live dog because they're going to punch Dallas in the mouth with their running game and pass rush. That's what beat the Rams when the Niners faced them and I think it could happen here as well.

[seaborneq]

San Francisco is NOT less talented than Dallas. Dallas has the flash and dash, but pound for pound San Francisco has the best roster and coach. I definitely don't think that Dak is lights out better than Jimmy G either. I would take San Francisco and the points and feel good about it. San Francisco is also a better road team than home team this year. Mentally tough on the road.

[trobin31]

Didn’t I see someone post a stat saying any team which lost 4 games in a row during season never made it past 1st round?

[seaborneq]

Didn’t I see someone post a stat saying any team which lost 4 games in a row during season never made it past 1st round?

The Niners lost 4 games in row this season??

[pavyracer]

How many post season wins the Cowboys have in the last 25 years? This should be a trivia question.

[hehfest]

They are -3 because they are -3. Don't worry about it.

[magpie878]

SF very good defense

Very good QB and running game

Only truth in there is very good running game.

QB is so good he's about to be dumped. Defense good, absolutely not great.

[firstclass]

Dallas always chokes in the playoffs

[ThaTopMoron]

Didn’t I see someone post a stat saying any team which lost 4 games in a row during season never made it past 1st round?

but this is the first 17 game regular season.... throw that out the window a team who lost 7 in a row almost made the playoffs

[Wrongside]

Dallas always chokes in the playoffs

This true, they have a QB I don’t love, but plays great sometimes and will get some affirmative action/political help as well, maybe…so good chance he has a good to great game. I don’t like the Niners’ corners at all.

Niners have a good front seven, great receivers and solid running game.

It’s a toss-up, but Dallas has to be the favorite, due to their exciting defense, and that they are playing at home.

[TheMetsSuck]

49ers +3.5 is hard to ignore. They’ll win straight up

[clockwise1965]

49'ers ml.

[TheMoneyShot]

Where is rake at with his poll lol There's way too much SF LOVE here. So Dallas's season is meaningless? Great QB... Great RB. Great D-line. And interceptions leader in the secondary...

What does SF have??? They screwed around all year.... went to Tennessee and lost to a POS QB named Tannehill.

All it takes is one smashing hit to Jimmy G... and he's done. He could fall on that hand.... anything can happen... and it's lights out.

I get it... a spread is what it is....

But Vegas is telling you that Dallas will fold like a cheap tent? lol Spread should be at least Dallas -4.5

Stafford isn't anything special. He's a Detroit product. Please take + the points when facing LA Rams. Thank me later.

[jjgold]

I do not trust JimmyG the only issue

[magpie878]

Dallas always chokes in the playoffs

This true, they have a QB I don’t love, but plays great sometimes and will get some affirmative action/political help as well, maybe…so good chance he has a good to great game. I don’t like the Niners’ corners at all.

Niners have a good front seven, great receivers and solid running game.

It’s a toss-up, but Dallas has to be the favorite, due to their exciting defense, and that they are playing at home.

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Not that Dallas has been in the playoffs much lately, but in 3 of their last 4 visits, they won their first game. The one they lost was the Green Bay game with the "not a catch" BS.

And like much football history, that's meaningless now.

[magpie878]

Very good QB

I do not trust JimmyG the only issue

Nice logic

[RangeFinder]

Nobody ever mentioned the the 49'ers were riddled with injuries and Covid all year long.

Now they have their full squad back and have always been contenders as long as they were healthy. Now they are. Dallas will have their hands full, bigly.

[Snowball]

For the life of me... I don't even understand this spread??? At one book it already dropped to -2.5

What the hell am I missing??? It's full throttle Dallas VS Frisco.

I never understood the Georgia -3 line..... and now Vegas throws Dallas -3 at you??

Home Field advantage is worth 3 in NFL. The game is PK + HFA for Dallas.

[Wargasm]

-3 to bait the public (it should be a pk). Dallas run D does not match up well against SF run.

[magpie878]

Nobody ever mentioned the the 49'ers were riddled with injuries and Covid all year long.
Now they have their full squad back and have always been contenders as long as they were healthy. Now they are. Dallas will have their hands full, bigly.

Every team faced the same stuff. Dallas lost Dak, then Dak struggled getting back to form. Elliott's been hurt most of the year and playing through it. Gallup barely played, hurt. Covid had Ced Wilson as the #1 WR on at one point. I recall a few D guys out at various times but can't of specifics.

It was far from a 49ers-only issue.

[Demonata]

Use bet and pray strategy with this game.

[semibluff]

Home Field advantage is worth 3 in NFL. The game is PK + HFA for Dallas.

This is bad math and it perpetuates a myth that is unhelpful for those who don't understand handicaps. Home field advantage averages out at just under 6%. That may equate to 4 points, 0 points, (or anything in between), on the spread depending on where the actual money line is.

[rake922]

Where is rake at with his poll .

I already made the threads

[eidolon]

you always question the spread





for the record, I won't be touching this game. Too unpredictable with a game on the line involving Dak and Jimmy G

Exactly.
Both teams/QBs are too inconsistent.

[KRIT]

Sharp money on SF.

[chilidog]

using just this season's data, my model set the line at dallas -6.5
the past 3 seasons, 49ers -0.5

with the line being cowboys -3, if i were just going with this season's data, then betting cowboys -3 would be my pick

however, using the past 3 seasons worth of data, 49ers +3 would be the play

my model is most accurate (and profitable) when using the past 3 season's worth of data, but i run it both ways and only make bets when both subsets of data produce the same pick

lastly, dallas' recent form is a lot higher compared to this season, last season, and 2019 season. conversely, 49ers's recent form is worse than this season, last season, and 2019 season. everything must return back to average. cowboys are doing better than they should be. 49ers are doing worse than they should be.

all those factors point to 49ers +3

but, i'm a huge dallas fan. i ain't betting against my boys.

[d2bets]

This is bad math and it perpetuates a myth that is unhelpful for those who don't understand handicaps. Home field advantage averages out at just under 6%. That may equate to 4 points, 0 points, (or anything in between), on the spread depending on where the actual money line is.

Huh, how can a 6% advantage equate to 0 points?