Guess who's hurting the industry?

Korchnoi · 01-30-07, 12:49 PM

if they are indeed quality books, they should be able to deal with a run no problem...

Jay Edgar · 01-30-07, 01:05 PM

Superb post, DH.

(Which is not to exonerate Neteller and others for their role in a clusterf*ck that better operators may have avoided. But all of that is beside your valid point, marvelously expressed.)

Dark Horse · 01-30-07, 01:06 PM

Originally posted by Korchnoi

if they are indeed quality books, they should be able to deal with a run no problem...

The problem is that, while that may be so, when too many people think that way and decide to test the industry, it sucks all the money right out of the market.

Think market.

Wheell · 01-30-07, 01:27 PM

No, not a good post DH, not a good post Jay Edgar. Here is the problem with it:

If Wile E. Coyote believe he is running on solid ground, he won't fall.

The fact is the books don't pay interest. The don't give out loans. The vig is in their favor. I understand they have payroll, rent, and other expenses, but with all of that the books should still be able to cover the full balance of every player who wants his/her cash at any time. If we believe this canard of: Don't pull out your money or it won't be safe... well, then we don't really believe it to be safe in the first place, do we?

jjgold · 01-30-07, 01:31 PM

No reason to pull money out, anyone that does is just flat out silly. I left all money in there, Neteller I pulled way back because I am smart and saw the writng on the wall.

Korchnoi · 01-30-07, 02:57 PM

Originally posted by Dark Horse

The problem is that, while that may be so, when too many people think that way and decide to test the industry, it sucks all the money right out of the market.

Think market.

classic tradegy of the commons example. every individual player is better off with his money in hand for safety, but if everyone does this then everyone's money becomes at risk.

Mudcat · 01-30-07, 03:00 PM

Originally posted by Dark Horse

Everybody involved in a panic run on the bank.

There will always be a way to get money in and out of books. That's not the problem at all. The problem is players pulling out because they think books will fold. That could easily become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Stop panicking. Neteller pulled out. A few others did. It won't make any difference in the long run. Nothing wrong with cashing out as such, but if you don't need your money right away, and you want the industry to get back to full health, leave it in the quality books for now; instead of complaining that they're not paying as fast as they used to, so 'there must be something wrong'.

That's sweet, Utopian YOU-can-make-a-difference thinking. If I thought there was any chance that all the players would read that and be swayed, I might hop on board. Unfortunately that is not reality as I know it and I am in the process of pulling in a big chunk (~90%) of my funds from off-shore books.

I am not panicky by nature but I can't help but be aware that there are so many panicky people out there, that it is necessary for me to factor that into my actions. You're absolutely right: their these-books-might-fold-so-I-have-to-get-out-NOW mindset could become a self-fulfilling prophesy.

And I sure as hell don't want my money there if that happens.

Calm logic dictates that my actions become panic-influenced.

I'd like to take a high-minded stance and try to prove the virtue of standing pat for the larger benefit of the industry. However I'm afraid that me and my principles could get eaten alive that way. No one will be praising me as a martyr if that happens. I'll just be the guy who was too slow on the trigger and is out a bunch of cash.

Willie Bee · 01-30-07, 03:34 PM

Sound logic and reasoning in both Dark Horse's and Mudcat's posts.

Not sure about the Wile E Coyote correlation since there is the completely natural and external force known as gravity working against the old dog in the example and all forces at work in this current gambling snafu are man-made.

Faith is what holds a whole lotta' things together, from personal relationships to private enterprise, and all things in-between. It's our faith in the US (or other country) banking system that keeps that operation afloat. If everyone in this country went down to their bank tomorrow to take the money out, a lot of folks would go home empty handed. Not sure that means the banks themselves weren't quality banks to begin with just as I'm sure it doesn't mean some of the books faced with the same problem now weren't quality operations to start with.

Assuming everyone here carries a little bit of debt, maybe not everyone, but the vast majority at the least. If all of your creditors came and demanded payment NOW, could you make good in 24 hours or less? Even if you have the ability to pay, it would likely take some time to get it all together and remit to those seeking their just payments. If it took you longer than 24 hours or a week or even a month to do so, would it make you a bad person?

kdmfox · 01-30-07, 03:43 PM

Originally posted by Wheell

No, not a good post DH, not a good post Jay Edgar. Here is the problem with it:

If Wile E. Coyote believe he is running on solid ground, he won't fall.

The fact is the books don't pay interest. The don't give out loans. The vig is in their favor. I understand they have payroll, rent, and other expenses, but with all of that the books should still be able to cover the full balance of every player who wants his/her cash at any time. If we believe this canard of: Don't pull out your money or it won't be safe... well, then we don't really believe it to be safe in the first place, do we?

I agree Wheel ... The books call the shots 100% of the time with our money, everything in their favor ... We're supposed to have all this sympathy when the heat is on the industry? ... I'd rather have MY $ in MY pocket, not THEIRS until things cool off.

Korchnoi · 01-30-07, 04:27 PM

Originally posted by kdmfox

I agree Wheel ... The books call the shots 100% of the time with our money, everything in their favor ... We're supposed to have all this sympathy when the heat is on the industry? ... I'd rather have MY $ in MY pocket, not THEIRS until things cool off.

banks lend out almost all their assets and in return, they pay you interest. this is why they're so susceptible to runs, because they don't have the cash on hand. the books pay us no interest and should have all our funds on hand or in highly liquid investments. every day of slowpay is a day they get interest and we don't, that's stealing (same for neteller!).

patswin · 01-30-07, 04:49 PM

I agree with Mudcat, best to be safe than sorry unless its money you can afford to lose. I worked to hard to build up my bankroll to see it disappear because of the new law or someone decided to take the money and run. Sure I trust Greek and WSEX with my money but until things are settled a bit better to sit on the sidelines. Lets face it, when you post up someplace the book does not have to pay you. What are the repercussions if they don't? You can't sue them or threaten legal action. They pay because they want to keep their name and reputation in tact. Also I am not pulling all of my funds out, but I am leaving only small balances at DSI, Matchbook and Bodog

JoshW · 01-30-07, 06:14 PM

I agree with Mudcat. You have to be concerned about every book in this environment to some degree. With the better books it might mean keeping less than you woud otherwise. With all the books in the middle, I feel like a complete draw down unless you really need the money is likely a good choice. Yes it makes it hard on the industry. But this fear exists for a real reason.

Dark Horse · 01-30-07, 07:58 PM

Never mind.

Surprised not to see a little more willingness to stand our ground, especially here.

Dark Horse · 02-02-07, 06:51 AM

With so many pieces of the puzzle shaded, this can only be a speculation.

- Gamblers are worried about their funds in Neteller, but books are very likely in the same boat. They can't access all of their funds.

- So on the one hand, gamblers are angry with Neteller for cutting them off; rightly so, because Neteller is acting purely out of its own interest and has no right to hold our money hostage. On the other hand, many gamblers insist that books pay them immediately, even though the books may experience the exact same problem with Neteller.

What does this mean? Neteller is the problem (although they will shift blame to the US government; elected by 'us'). Not the books. If books have been reliable for many years, and suddenly slow-pay, this would be the time to give them the benefit of the doubt. Give them some time. Books are in a profitable business. They can earn money lost to Neteller back faster than most of us. Under these highly unusual circumstances I would understand and support the slow-pay mode that is reported across the board. It is more important that quality books survive than that we all get paid at this very moment. Why? Because the survival of these books is the only way that we will all get paid!

Neteller is a different story. With them holding that much money that isn't theirs, there are only two possibilities. Either I've seen too many movies, or they don't have any movies on the Isle of Man.

slacker00 · 02-02-07, 08:06 AM

I thought this way too, DH. I probably could have gotten my money out of Neteller, if I cashed out as soon as I heard the rumblings, but I didn't sweat it because I thought Neteller was as good as Pinny or as good as gold. Now after a late EFT request, I may be waiting months. I know time will tell, but this type of panic thinking is making more and more sense. I still think I'll get my Neteller money, but when is a different question entirely. It's enough to bug a guy and there's definitely value in peace of mind.