MLB Wild Card Opening Lines

big joe 1212 · 10-04-21, 11:46 AM

I can’t see Dodgers losing this game

LongBall52 · 10-04-21, 12:28 PM

Baseball was better before 1 game wild cards. Want to be like the NBA---a step down.

JIBBBY · 10-04-21, 01:01 PM

One game elimination is stressful for teams. Still can't believe the Dodgers didn't win out in the regular season to avoid the wild card game.

yisman · 10-04-21, 01:03 PM

Originally posted by stevenash

BOS played NYY at home in Fenway 10 times.
In those ten games BOS was 10-6 at home.

rewrite!

pavyracer · 10-04-21, 02:10 PM

Are you telling me that the bookmakers think that if this wildcard game is played 100 times with the same pitchers the Dodgers win 67 times?

This can't be right. It should be 50/50.

stevenash · 10-04-21, 02:13 PM

Originally posted by yisman

rewrite!

wiseass
OK.
NYY played ten games at Fenway in 20201
Red Sox beat NY six times and lost four times.
Better, wiseass

It's all good, just messing.

stake1 · 10-04-21, 02:15 PM

Originally posted by johnnyvegas13

Nobody giving cards a chance ?

its one gm and it’s baseball ..

Dude you watch the Dodgers home games? They were down bad against the Brewers “a team” twice and scalped them. Best overall lineup and best home field team in Mlb.
All that even with Davey Dumbass.
guess what? Wednesday? He faces the lowest baseball IQ manager in history, a librarian who never played a half inning.
yeah they have no shot at Dodger Stadium. I hope Scherzer gives up 5-6 early, will be fun to watch the comeback scalping

stake1 · 10-04-21, 02:17 PM

Originally posted by big joe 1212

I can’t see Dodgers losing this game

Cardinals manager is a joke. he would have been fired, but his team decided to play 3 weeks while they “jaked” it for 5 months
Anyway, team is for sale, and he will be the first fired once they are sold

stake1 · 10-04-21, 02:18 PM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

One game elimination is stressful for teams. Still can't believe the Dodgers didn't win out in the regular season to avoid the wild card game.

yes. 100% agree
which is why Cora > Boone and davey dumbass >>> than Shidt

stevenash · 10-04-21, 02:22 PM

Originally posted by Roscoe_Word

Good stuff Steve.

Thanks man.

Originally posted by thetrinity

Nash you have scherzers numbers in LA? Seems like he pitched a little better in WSH.

Think Boston will win and get swept or lose 3-1 against rays

I do.
I'll get Max's numbers up in a bit.

I'm leaning Boston if I can get +120 or better.
I'll usually bet what I believe are pick 'em games at + money.
If I do bet is it'll be not big .5* maybe, something like 40 to win 48.
If I can get down 40 bucks to win 50 than it's a play, but nothing more.

yisman · 10-04-21, 02:38 PM

I bet Yankees and Cardinals on the Heritage overnights.

Nothing sharp, but maybe I'll beat the closer.

Dodgers better all around team even without Muncy, and a better starter+HFA, but I liked +200.

As for the Yankees, their lineup is clearly better. No homefield hurts, but I thought it would close higher than -112.

stevenash · 10-04-21, 02:43 PM

Max has made 11 starts as a Dodger in 2021 since coming over.

Five starts at home in LA, six on the road.

The first group of numbers are his 2021 home starts as a Dodger.
The second group are Max's totals in all eleven starts

Season	Name	Tm	G	ERA	H	2B	3B	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Total	Max Scherzer	LAD	5	2.2978723	25	4	1	9	8	4	2	40	0.2083333	0.2276423	0.3583333	0.2498469


Season	Name	Tm	G	ERA	H	2B	3B	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Total	Max Scherzer	LAD	11	1.9756098	48	10	1	17	15	5	8	89	0.1889764	0.219697	0.2952756	0.2239576

yisman · 10-04-21, 03:11 PM

In Max's 11 LA starts, he did not get tagged with a single loss. Perhaps a testament to his run support.

carolinakid · 10-04-21, 04:22 PM

play at your own risk

Steam-Play Alert

10/04/21 02:19:05pm Pacific Time

MLB: Game 940 LA Dodgers -209

stevenash · 10-04-21, 04:29 PM

Originally posted by yisman

In Max's 11 LA starts, he did not get tagged with a single loss. Perhaps a testament to his run support.

I love you man.
The perfect, and I mean prefect segue to my next point.

W/L records and save totals are two of the most misleading stats used when analyzing a ball game.
While they can not be totally ignored all together, but by placing too much emphasis on them can skew your final conclusion.

Look at the Cole v. Eovaldi matchup tomorrow.
(I'll get bacj to Max in a little bit)
All things considered Cole and Eovaldi had very similar very successful seasons.
But one was 16 -8 and the 11-9, yet you can make a case for the 11-9 pitcher having the better season (I have them pretty much even)

Another good one.
Corbin Burnes had a much better season than Walker Beuhler yet one was 16 and 4 and the other was 11 and 5.
Brandon Woodruff was 9 and 10 yet was a top ten MLB in 2021.
And I really don't need to talk about deGrom's W/L record (even though he doesn't qualify in 2021 for anything)

Key words Yisman said "run support"
This is my very favorite example.
Grinke won 16 games with a 8.22 run per game support.
Phil Hughes won 16 games as a NYY with about 7 runs per game of support.

Ray Charles given 8 runs a game in support can win 16.
I'm pretty sure Helen Keller can too.

champlain · 10-04-21, 06:52 PM

Originally posted by stevenash

I love you man.
The perfect, and I mean prefect segue to my next point.

W/L records and save totals are two of the most misleading stats used when analyzing a ball game.
While they can not be totally ignored all together, but by placing too much emphasis on them can skew your final conclusion.

Look at the Cole v. Eovaldi matchup tomorrow.
(I'll get bacj to Max in a little bit)
All things considered Cole and Eovaldi had very similar very successful seasons.
But one was 16 -8 and the 11-9, yet you can make a case for the 11-9 pitcher having the better season (I have them pretty much even)

Another good one.
Corbin Burnes had a much better season than Walker Beuhler yet one was 16 and 4 and the other was 11 and 5.
Brandon Woodruff was 9 and 10 yet was a top ten MLB in 2021.
And I really don't need to talk about deGrom's W/L record (even though he doesn't qualify in 2021 for anything)

Key words Yisman said "run support"
This is my very favorite example.
Grinke won 16 games with a 8.22 run per game support.
Phil Hughes won 16 games as a NYY with about 7 runs per game of support.

Ray Charles given 8 runs a game in support can win 16.
I'm pretty sure Helen Keller can too.

How do you figure Burnes having a better season than Buehler?

Buehler 2.47 era in 207 and 2/3 innings
Burnes 2.44 era in 167 innings

stevenash · 10-04-21, 07:45 PM

Originally posted by champlain

How do you figure Burnes having a better season than Buehler?

Buehler 2.47 era in 207 and 2/3 innings
Burnes 2.44 era in 167 innings

Burnes is the ERA champ in the NL.

Burnes led the league in ERA, led the league in K's per nine innings, led the league in fewest walks per nine, and fewest HR's allowed per nine.

Reread that again.

No pitcher has done what (fewest walks per nine and most K's per nine) in the same season in over 100 years since Walter "Big Train" Johnson did it.

No pitcher has dominated like that in our lifetime.

Buehler had a terrible September (his last two were OK) the four before that he shit the bed.
Brewers are 12-0 in the last 12 starts Burnes has started.

And Burnes is worth 2+ more wins above replacement than Buehler.

Not saying WB is crap, not at all, Burnes had a season that may never be duplicated.

There were 39 Major League starters that met the 162 IP requirements.
Ranked 1 through 39 in Wins Above Replacement Pitcher.

Name	Team	W	L	GS	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	GB%	HR/FB	ERA	WAR
Corbin Burnes	MIL	11	5	28	167	12.61	1.83	0.38	48.80%	6.10%	2.43	7.5
Zack Wheeler	PHI	14	10	32	213.1	10.42	1.94	0.68	49.80%	10.80%	2.78	7.3
Nathan Eovaldi	BOS	11	9	32	182.1	9.63	1.73	0.74	42.00%	8.20%	3.75	5.6
Walker Buehler	LAD	16	4	33	207.2	9.19	2.25	0.82	44.70%	10.10%	2.47	5.5
Max Scherzer	- - -	15	4	30	179.1	11.84	1.84	1.15	33.50%	11.70%	2.46	5.4
Gerrit Cole	NYY	16	8	30	181.1	12.06	2.03	1.19	43.10%	13.50%	3.23	5.3
Julio Urias	LAD	20	3	32	185.2	9.45	1.84	0.92	40.20%	9.40%	2.96	5
Kevin Gausman	SFG	14	6	33	192	10.64	2.34	0.94	41.90%	11.30%	2.81	4.8
Brandon Woodruff	MIL	9	10	30	179.1	10.59	2.16	0.9	41.50%	12.70%	2.56	4.7
Charlie Morton	ATL	14	6	33	185.2	10.47	2.81	0.78	47.80%	12.10%	3.34	4.6
Aaron Nola	PHI	9	9	32	180.2	11.11	1.94	1.3	40.50%	13.50%	4.63	4.5
Dylan Cease	CHW	13	7	32	165.2	12.28	3.69	1.09	33.30%	11.30%	3.91	4.4
Sandy Alcantara	MIA	9	15	33	205.2	8.8	2.19	0.92	53.30%	13.30%	3.19	4.2
Jose Berrios	- - -	12	9	32	192	9.56	2.11	1.03	42.80%	12.60%	3.52	4.1
Frankie Montas	OAK	13	9	32	187	9.96	2.74	0.96	42.80%	11.40%	3.37	4.1
Lucas Giolito	CHW	11	9	31	178.2	10.13	2.62	1.36	33.20%	13.80%	3.53	4
Robbie Ray	TOR	13	7	32	193.1	11.54	2.47	1.54	37.20%	15.90%	2.84	3.9
Max Fried	ATL	14	7	28	165.2	8.58	2.23	0.81	51.80%	12.10%	3.04	3.8
Adam Wainwright	STL	17	7	32	206.1	7.59	2.18	0.92	47.50%	11.70%	3.05	3.8
Tyler Mahle	CIN	13	6	33	180	10.5	3.2	1.2	42.20%	14.10%	3.75	3.7
Luis Castillo	CIN	8	16	33	187.2	9.21	3.6	0.91	56.60%	15.00%	3.98	3.7
German Marquez	COL	12	11	32	180	8.8	3.2	1.05	51.60%	15.90%	4.4	3.4
Marcus Stroman	NYM	10	13	33	179	7.94	2.21	0.85	50.80%	12.80%	3.02	3.4
Sean Manaea	OAK	11	10	32	179.1	9.74	2.06	1.25	42.00%	13.80%	3.91	3.3
Joe Musgrove	SDP	11	9	31	181.1	10.08	2.68	1.09	43.50%	14.00%	3.18	3.3
Lance McCullers Jr.	HOU	13	5	28	162.1	10.26	4.21	0.72	56.40%	11.70%	3.16	3.3
Chris Flexen	SEA	14	6	31	179.2	6.26	2	0.95	42.40%	9.10%	3.61	3
Anthony DeSclafani	SFG	13	7	31	167.2	8.16	2.25	1.02	44.30%	11.00%	3.17	3
Kyle Gibson	- - -	10	9	30	182	7.66	3.16	0.84	51.70%	11.10%	3.71	3
Wade Miley	CIN	12	7	28	163	6.9	2.76	0.94	49.40%	12.60%	3.37	2.9
Yu Darvish	SDP	8	11	30	166.1	10.77	2.38	1.52	37.00%	14.60%	4.22	2.9
Hyun-Jin Ryu	TOR	14	10	31	169	7.62	1.97	1.28	46.80%	14.30%	4.37	2.5
Tyler Anderson	- - -	7	11	31	167	7.22	2.05	1.46	35.10%	12.20%	4.53	2.1
Cole Irvin	OAK	10	15	32	178.1	6.31	2.12	1.16	37.60%	10.40%	4.24	2.1
Zack Greinke	HOU	11	6	29	171	6.32	1.89	1.58	44.40%	17.40%	4.16	1.3
Kyle Hendricks	CHC	14	7	32	181	6.51	2.19	1.54	43.10%	15.60%	4.77	1.3
Patrick Corbin	WSN	9	16	31	171.2	7.5	3.15	1.94	47.20%	22.60%	5.82	0.2
Jordan Lyles	TEX	10	13	30	180	7.3	2.8	1.9	37.60%	17.40%	5.15	0

Enikk · 10-04-21, 09:12 PM

Most important question is: Who is the Ump. If it is Fat Joe's crew than burn all these great stats posted. Great thread Steve!!

stevenash · 10-04-21, 09:25 PM

Originally posted by Enikk

Most important question is: Who is the Ump. If it is Fat Joe's crew than burn all these great stats posted. Great thread Steve!!

Appreciate the words.

Yep.
Joe West is the HPU for the Dodger game.

stevenash · 10-05-21, 07:49 AM

Name	Pos	Team	Home?	Time	Opp	Pitcher	AB	H	XBH	HR	RBI	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS

Bobby Dalbec	1B	BOS	Yes	8:08 PM	NYY	Gerrit Cole	4	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0
Enrique Hernandez	2B	BOS	Yes	8:08 PM	NYY	Gerrit Cole	11	5	3	1	1	3	0	0.455	0.571	0.909	1.481
Travis Shaw	3B	BOS	Yes	8:08 PM	NYY	Gerrit Cole	17	3	2	2	2	1	6	0.176	0.222	0.529	0.752
Christian Arroyo	3B	BOS	Yes	8:08 PM	NYY	Gerrit Cole	2	1	0	0	1	0	1	0.5	0.5	0.5	1
Rafael Devers	3B	BOS	Yes	8:08 PM	NYY	Gerrit Cole	19	4	3	3	8	1	8	0.211	0.25	0.684	0.934
Christian Vazquez	C	BOS	Yes	8:08 PM	NYY	Gerrit Cole	17	5	1	0	1	0	5	0.294	0.278	0.353	0.631
Kevin Plawecki	C	BOS	Yes	8:08 PM	NYY	Gerrit Cole	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0.333	0.333	0.333	0.667
J.D. Martinez	DH	BOS	Yes	8:08 PM	NYY	Gerrit Cole	20	4	4	2	3	5	10	0.2	0.346	0.6	0.946
Hunter Renfroe	OF	BOS	Yes	8:08 PM	NYY	Gerrit Cole	20	4	0	0	0	1	6	0.2	0.238	0.2	0.438
Kyle Schwarber	OF	BOS	Yes	8:08 PM	NYY	Gerrit Cole	17	3	0	0	1	2	6	0.176	0.263	0.176	0.44
Alex Verdugo	OF	BOS	Yes	8:08 PM	NYY	Gerrit Cole	14	4	3	1	1	0	5	0.286	0.286	0.643	0.929
Jose Iglesias	SS	BOS	Yes	8:08 PM	NYY	Gerrit Cole	24	3	2	0	1	2	5	0.125	0.192	0.208	0.401
Xander Bogaerts	SS	BOS	Yes	8:08 PM	NYY	Gerrit Cole	24	5	2	1	2	0	7	0.208	0.2	0.375	0.575

Name	Pos	Team	Home?	Time	Opp	Pitcher	AB	H	XBH	HR	RBI	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS

Anthony Rizzo	1B	NYY	No	8:08 PM	BOS	Nathan Eovaldi	9	5	3	0	2	0	1	0.556	0.556	0.889	1.444
Rougned Odor	2B	NYY	No	8:08 PM	BOS	Nathan Eovaldi	14	2	1	0	0	0	4	0.143	0.2	0.214	0.414
Tyler Wade	2B	NYY	No	8:08 PM	BOS	Nathan Eovaldi	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
Gio Urshela	3B	NYY	No	8:08 PM	BOS	Nathan Eovaldi	15	4	2	1	2	1	1	0.267	0.313	0.533	0.846
Gary Sanchez	C	NYY	No	8:08 PM	BOS	Nathan Eovaldi	14	2	1	1	2	0	5	0.143	0.2	0.357	0.557
Kyle Higashioka	C	NYY	No	8:08 PM	BOS	Nathan Eovaldi	3	2	0	0	2	1	0	0.667	0.75	0.667	1.417
Giancarlo Stanton	DH	NYY	No	8:08 PM	BOS	Nathan Eovaldi	27	7	4	2	7	1	9	0.259	0.276	0.556	0.831
Brett Gardner	OF	NYY	No	8:08 PM	BOS	Nathan Eovaldi	28	5	1	0	1	2	7	0.179	0.233	0.214	0.448
Joey Gallo	OF	NYY	No	8:08 PM	BOS	Nathan Eovaldi	7	1	0	0	0	1	3	0.143	0.25	0.143	0.393
Aaron Judge	OF	NYY	No	8:08 PM	BOS	Nathan Eovaldi	20	8	3	1	2	1	3	0.4	0.429	0.65	1.079
Gleyber Torres	SS	NYY	No	8:08 PM	BOS	Nathan Eovaldi	29	7	1	0	1	1	6	0.241	0.267	0.276	0.543
Andrew Velazquez	SS	NYY	No	8:08 PM	BOS	Nathan Eovaldi	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Itsamazing777 · 10-05-21, 08:10 AM

The totals seem high. Is it a trap?

stevenash · 10-05-21, 08:39 AM

Originally posted by Itsamazing777

The totals seem high. Is it a trap?

Under 8 or no play
Boston + or no play

SEAHAWKHARRY · 10-05-21, 09:05 AM

On the Dodgers game I just threw all my Betpoints on the Dodgers 2k feel they come out the better side tonight

I am leaning the under tonight with the redsox game going to pit 1 unit on it ($$) leaning redsox but waiting for a better # as it is going up up up

Itsamazing777 · 10-05-21, 09:08 AM

Originally posted by stevenash

Under 8 or no play
Boston + or no play

Its at 8.5 at my book.

stevenash · 10-05-21, 09:09 AM

Originally posted by Itsamazing777

Its at 8.5 at my book.

Was 8.0 at Heritage two hours ago

stevenash · 10-05-21, 09:11 AM

Originally posted by stevenash

Was 8.0 at Heritage two hours ago

Still 8.0
I have three other outs, I'm waiting for 8.5 and I refuse to pay extra vig for it
I'll get 8.5

Where you play at Amazing?

Goat Milk · 10-05-21, 11:01 AM

Originally posted by stevenash

Thanks man.

I do.
I'll get Max's numbers up in a bit.

I'm leaning Boston if I can get +120 or better.
I'll usually bet what I believe are pick 'em games at + money.
If I do bet is it'll be not big .5* maybe, something like 40 to win 48.
If I can get down 40 bucks to win 50 than it's a play, but nothing more.

after all the time and research you pour into yoru writeups, 40 bucks? what percentage of mlb plays do you normally hit?

Itsamazing777 · 10-05-21, 11:15 AM

Originally posted by stevenash

Still 8.0
I have three other outs, I'm waiting for 8.5 and I refuse to pay extra vig for it
I'll get 8.5

Where you play at Amazing?

Draftkings. However it just dropped to 8

stevenash · 10-05-21, 11:50 AM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

after all the time and research you pour into yoru writeups, 40 bucks? what percentage of mlb plays do you normally hit?

1* 100 is my normal.
I'm splitting 100 tonight between under and Boston.

I'm not big time, I don't pretend to be big time.
I'm a 50 to 100 dollar a pop bettor.
MLB is a six month grind.

This is my eleventh year writing baseball here at SBR, the veteran posters that read my stuff can pretty much back me up here.

I had a slight down year this year, nothing major, but I'm out about 8* or so.
I had to change my handicapping methods in mid season because my run line bets were getting dicked by the new extra inning rules.
Not an excuse, I know why I had a bit of an off season is what I'm saying.

11 years here, I've had six winning seasons betting MLB (two of them, 2014-2015 were monster years for me, LakerBoy for one can vouch for me on that) I've had three losing seasons, and two seasons were pretty much a wash.

MLB is my bread and butter, I do well, I played it, I studied it, and helps to be a math geek too.

But like I said, I'm not a whale, 50's and 100's.
I'll drop a 5* bomb on occasions, but not often.

NBA I do OK.
NFL, meh, but I just do Sunday football pretty much for fun.

I love the game of hockey, especially Stanley Cup playoffs, but I have zero time to put into it.
I can name you the top 10 players, and most teams goaltenders, but that's the extent of it.

johnnygooble · 10-05-21, 01:36 PM

Originally posted by stake1

Cardinals manager is a joke. he would have been fired, but his team decided to play 3 weeks while they “jaked” it for 5 months
Anyway, team is for sale, and he will be the first fired once they are sold

Do you know what the dodgers extra innig record is? Cardinals manager got the most out of terrible pitching. He should be manager of the year....and if it wasn’t for sherzer the dodgers would have been eliminated

yisman · 10-05-21, 08:08 PM

Cole''s 4th bad start in a row, and 5th bad start out of his last six.

He hasn't been right since September 1.

stevenash · 10-05-21, 08:28 PM

Originally posted by yisman

Cole''s 4th bad start in a row, and 5th bad start out of his last six.

He hasn't been right since September 1.

That's what I've been saying.

And yeah, Eovaldi got tagged his last out v. NYY but I've also been saying for years past starts (unless injury or something funky like that) usually has no bearing on the next start.

No way no how am I celebrating a 3-0 lead in the fourth as NY is capable of making it 5-3 in a finger snap.
But I am cautiously optimistic right now.

Yisman, thanks for dropping by here, I've always have had great respect for your baseball stuff, goes back over 10 years now.
Appreciate all your contributions, KVB and his unique but extremely astute views on betting too. LT Profits has been steady as steady can be for years...

There's still a ton of talent here at SBR from the old dayd.

stevenash · 10-05-21, 10:30 PM

OK, that worked out well.I'm wiped out, I'll write up the LAD/STL game tomorrow.

I'm looking for an angle to fade LAD and I can't come up with one.
Muncy's injury shouldn't be much of a factor.

More later.
Later fellas.

stake1 · 10-05-21, 10:51 PM

Originally posted by stake1

I like the Sawx on Tuesday. line looks funny, and that has to be due to Cole’s struggles lately. He is very hitable and this will have a far different result than his recent start at Fenway

One down. And one to go

stake1 · 10-05-21, 10:53 PM

Originally posted by johnnygooble

Do you know what the dodgers extra innig record is? Cardinals manager got the most out of terrible pitching. He should be manager of the year....and if it wasn’t for sherzer the dodgers would have been eliminated

Huh? Mike Shidt is the worst manager in the history of baseball. he ran his pen into the ground for the first 5 months of the 2021 Mlb marathon to be a 69-68 team
However, that dumbfukkker did not know that a season is comprised of 162 games. Alex Reyes was an "all star". a fukkkiing joke, which proved so
Anyway, they will get boat raced tomorrow. Doesn't matter if they get up a Td. they lose.