This is what I wrote in the other thread regarding tonight's game.
Ridiculous line.
It's at -240 at some shops.
-190 would be more realistic.
Having said that I spent a hour looking at this game from every angle looking for a reason to fade LA.
This is what I came up with
It is a one game playin and something funky could happen (remember Bucky Dent) but if you're betting on a fluke to happen you need to find a new hobby.
This is the best case scenario as to how the Cards can win tonight.
Wain-O is a junk baller.
He's good at that off speed stuff that keeps hitters off balance and for him to succeed tonight he better be on for six consecutive innings.
And if he does that somebody like Goldy is going to have to get a hold of one and crank out a three run bomb.
I don't see that happening. Dodgers will hang crooked numbers on him at least two innings.
Fact of the matter remains Wainwright is probably the worst rotation pitcher left in the playoffs (think about it)
Brewers and Dodgers both have three better starters, White Sox two, Red Sox two (sale and Eovaldi)....
And for those who look at BvP numbers (I do) this current Dodger dugout has demostartated in the past they all smack Wainwright hard, where as the only one on the Cards roster that has hurt Max is Edmond, I love Edmond, I love super utility players like him but let's face facts, he's a Punch and Judy hitter.
Take a look at this chart.
(I left off Muncy, he's hurt)
Who in the past has Wainwright fooled?
Look closer at the walks and strike out totals.
I don't want to hear 'sample size' it's all I have to go on here, but those K and BB numbers scream Wainwright's pitches doesn't miss LA's bats, and LA bats put his pitches in play.
Here's an angle that is interesting.
Will Smith is a terrible defensive catcher when it comes to throwing out would be base stealers, and St. Louis has several jack rabbits im there.
(That was a big part of Ned Yost's 2015 team that won it all)
Still that was a different team that 2015 KC team, they had a monster bullpen too.
I dislike LA, never liked them, but I can't fade them in this one game.
And I can't lay -230 or more either because I just don't lay more than 2:1.
7.5 total?
Should go under, unless there's a fluke two run garbage time ninth inning.
Pass on the side, pass on the total.
I might make a small 0.5* (50 dollar) two team money line parlay with LA and another game later this week.
This way even if LAD does lose I'm out only 50 and not 120 (at -240 odds)
I might do that. maybe.
Run line.
I don't bet run lines on home teams, I don't get the ninth inning at bat, and if I do get the ninth inning at bat 99 times out 100 I'm already screwed.
Ridiculous line.
It's at -240 at some shops.
-190 would be more realistic.
Having said that I spent a hour looking at this game from every angle looking for a reason to fade LA.
This is what I came up with
It is a one game playin and something funky could happen (remember Bucky Dent) but if you're betting on a fluke to happen you need to find a new hobby.
This is the best case scenario as to how the Cards can win tonight.
Wain-O is a junk baller.
He's good at that off speed stuff that keeps hitters off balance and for him to succeed tonight he better be on for six consecutive innings.
And if he does that somebody like Goldy is going to have to get a hold of one and crank out a three run bomb.
I don't see that happening. Dodgers will hang crooked numbers on him at least two innings.
Fact of the matter remains Wainwright is probably the worst rotation pitcher left in the playoffs (think about it)
Brewers and Dodgers both have three better starters, White Sox two, Red Sox two (sale and Eovaldi)....
And for those who look at BvP numbers (I do) this current Dodger dugout has demostartated in the past they all smack Wainwright hard, where as the only one on the Cards roster that has hurt Max is Edmond, I love Edmond, I love super utility players like him but let's face facts, he's a Punch and Judy hitter.
Take a look at this chart.
(I left off Muncy, he's hurt)
Who in the past has Wainwright fooled?
Look closer at the walks and strike out totals.
I don't want to hear 'sample size' it's all I have to go on here, but those K and BB numbers scream Wainwright's pitches doesn't miss LA's bats, and LA bats put his pitches in play.
| BATTER | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | wOBA | ISO | |
| Mookie Betts | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | |
| Trea Turner | 19 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0.421 | 0.421 | 0.526 | 0.947 | 0.416 | 0.105 | |
| Justin Turner | 9 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.333 | 0.556 | 0.889 | 0.378 | 0.222 | |
| AJ Pollock | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.375 | 0.375 | 0.5 | 0.875 | 0.381 | 0.125 | |
| Corey Seager | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.286 | 0.286 | 0.429 | 0.714 | 0.307 | 0.143 | |
| Cody Bellinger | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.125 | 0.125 | 0.25 | 0.375 | 0.156 | 0.125 | |
| Will Smith | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Active totals for | 58 | 19 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 7 | 0.328 | 0.328 | 0.448 | 0.776 | 0.336 | 0.121 | |
| Los Angeles Dodgers: |
Here's an angle that is interesting.
Will Smith is a terrible defensive catcher when it comes to throwing out would be base stealers, and St. Louis has several jack rabbits im there.
(That was a big part of Ned Yost's 2015 team that won it all)
Still that was a different team that 2015 KC team, they had a monster bullpen too.
I dislike LA, never liked them, but I can't fade them in this one game.
And I can't lay -230 or more either because I just don't lay more than 2:1.
7.5 total?
Should go under, unless there's a fluke two run garbage time ninth inning.
Pass on the side, pass on the total.
I might make a small 0.5* (50 dollar) two team money line parlay with LA and another game later this week.
This way even if LAD does lose I'm out only 50 and not 120 (at -240 odds)
I might do that. maybe.
Run line.
I don't bet run lines on home teams, I don't get the ninth inning at bat, and if I do get the ninth inning at bat 99 times out 100 I'm already screwed.
