This is why you never throw a -10,000 in a parlay.
I always thought this little midget rat bastard was a fixer but this is about as dirty as it gets playing for your country no less.
His 2nd match ever:
Chi_archie
SBR Aristocracy
07-22-08
63172
#2
what are the benefits of throwing it in? seems like that addition would add less than a sawbuck to most parlays
if you want to throw it in a HUGH parlay do it. and then bet a lil sumthin on the ml dog just to get your money back
then you can take NEVER out of your vocab
Comment
KVB
SBR Aristocracy
05-29-14
74817
#3
Fuk Doug.
Fuk.
Comment
Chi_archie
SBR Aristocracy
07-22-08
63172
#4
dougles
can I buy that radar gun off you?
Comment
Doug tushyterror
SBR MVP
07-03-12
4172
#5
Originally posted by Chi_archie
what are the benefits of throwing it in? seems like that addition would add less than a sawbuck to most parlays
if you want to throw it in a HUGH parlay do it. and then bet a lil sumthin on the ml dog just to get your money back
then you can take NEVER out of your vocab
Agreed but the take back +1616 on a 10K fav. is so shitty it's hard to justify even taking the underdog at that price. The match was even on clay in Diego's home country, Argentina.
Comment
KVB
SBR Aristocracy
05-29-14
74817
#6
Would be fun to have a radar gun at a bash where everyone can step up.
I'd probably throw my shoulder out of socket.
Better yet, let's get JJ Gold in a dunk tank and we can just pitch balls a that.
Comment
KVB
SBR Aristocracy
05-29-14
74817
#7
Originally posted by Doug tushyterror
Agreed but the take back +1616 on a a 10K fav...
Un fukkin real.
Fukkin tennis.
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ThaTopMoron
BARRELED IN @ SBR!
04-30-10
27020
#8
#8 cincy left tackle is having a BAD BAD day... to put it very mildly
-10,000 that he gets beat again late in this game and is the direct result of Indiana hanging on to a win
Comment
SnakesPicks
SBR Wise Guy
10-05-13
685
#9
Yeah, adding that to a parlay probably boosted the payout by 50 cents. Totally not worth it.
Comment
TommieGunshot
SBR MVP
03-27-12
1607
#10
If it has a greater than 99% chance of winning, I will always throw in a -10,000 line to every bet I make. And my profits will increase. The only reason to not include a -10,000 number is if the chance of it winning is 99% or less.
Comment
KVB
SBR Aristocracy
05-29-14
74817
#11
Originally posted by TommieGunshot
If it has a greater than 99% chance of winning, I will always throw in a -10,000 line to every bet I make. And my profits will increase. The only reason to not include a -10,000 number is if the chance of it winning is 99% or less.
I know it sounds crazy to many, but this is the right thinking, even if we are talking about the ridiculous -10,000 price.
The thinking shouldn't change because of the price, even if we commit a shit ton to vig.
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Chi_archie
SBR Aristocracy
07-22-08
63172
#12
but who has good models to spit out expected value on wins and losses at those far far far end of the the 99th percentile range? once you get past 97.3% you are entering into unchartered and largely market untested areas. It becomes more about lotto like variance.
in any event, the potential profits are not worth it for me to go scrap and backtest all those numbers, while inputting the changing market scenarios
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Brock Landers
SBR Aristocracy
06-30-08
45359
#13
Davis cup??
That's pure shit
Comment
KVB
SBR Aristocracy
05-29-14
74817
#14
Originally posted by Chi_archie
but who has good models to spit out expected value on wins and losses at those far far far end of the the 99th percentile range? once you get past 97.3% you are entering into unchartered and largely market untested areas. It becomes more about lotto like variance
The thinking should still be consistent no matter the price but yeah we are getting into prices that just aren't very practical for this type of stuff.
The mistake many make is to arbitrarily pick a price cut off, which will likely cut off opportunity. I know it works for a lot of bettors, for example, to say "never buy a mlb line over -150" or something, but in the end that means leaving +EV on the table.
Even up to -10000 the thinking should be the same, there isn't anything there to change the thinking, but there is definitely less to support it, like you are saying.
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vitterd
Restricted User
09-14-17
58460
#15
If I ever bet a -10,000 or even a -1,000. That’s the day I call it quits.
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SamsNCharge99
SBR Aristocracy
10-22-08
41242
#16
for Schwartzman to lose is bad. But on clay is even worse, his best surface.
Embarrassing loss for your country
Comment
beefcake
SBR Posting Legend
11-26-09
14029
#17
Wow Schwartzmen was 23% on second serve points won on his..Either this is tge ultimate of taking your opponent lighlty or hell
Yeah your right doug.DEF SUPER FISHY!
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pavyracer
SBR Aristocracy
04-12-07
82839
#18
Tsitsipas also lost as a big fav.
Check Swartzy's betting accounts.
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SamsNCharge99
SBR Aristocracy
10-22-08
41242
#19
did otters bet this too?
Comment
KVB
SBR Aristocracy
05-29-14
74817
#20
Originally posted by SamsNCharge99
did otters bet this too?
Sammy Otters has turned over a new leaf.
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jjgold
SBR Aristocracy
07-20-05
388179
#21
Shartzy just about done
He had a little run for a while
Comment
Doug tushyterror
SBR MVP
07-03-12
4172
#22
Originally posted by beefcake
Wow Schwartzmen was 23% on second serve points won on his..Either this is tge ultimate of taking your opponent lighlty or hell
Yeah your right doug.DEF SUPER FISHY!
Even this match is super fishy. Took Bergs to win the 2nd set against Hugo Dellien's brother who's never even played a Challenger match & it's a huge struggle.
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Chi_archie
SBR Aristocracy
07-22-08
63172
#23
Originally posted by KVB
The thinking should still be consistent no matter the price
agreed
I wouldn't ever "throw in" a +750 +100 -150 or -10,000
I consistently won't throw in bets without the #'s being right
Comment
Doug tushyterror
SBR MVP
07-03-12
4172
#24
Originally posted by Chi_archie
agreed
I wouldn't ever "throw in" a +750 +100 -150 or -10,000
I consistently won't throw in bets without the #'s being right
I don't know if you're serious about the radar gun Archie but I'm not the type who ever sells shit. If I need money I'll just try to hit a bet & cashout.
Comment
KVB
SBR Aristocracy
05-29-14
74817
#25
Originally posted by Chi_archie
agreed
I wouldn't ever "throw in" a +750 +100 -150 or -10,000
I consistently won't throw in bets without the #'s being right
There are mental factors too.
Some bettors add the -10000 and if it loses they go on tilt, and for good reason in my opinion, I mean, shit...even on clay...shit...lol.
It happens and those can be triggers for bettors likely to go on tilt or something similar.
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Doug tushyterror
SBR MVP
07-03-12
4172
#26
Another one. -1429 prematch to +1400 live down 2-5 in the 3rd.
Bergs won 3 Challengers this year & this guy has never even played above Futures. Shady as fukk
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jjgold
SBR Aristocracy
07-20-05
388179
#27
Doug who do you like tomorrow in the Clauson match?
She is a young sensation
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Doug tushyterror
SBR MVP
07-03-12
4172
#28
Originally posted by jjgold
Doug who do you like tomorrow in the Clauson match?
She is a young sensation
Gotta go with Clara Tauson, JJ. Only recent loss was to Barty & she even beat Raducanu. She'll make Ostapenko pay for all those unforced errors
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beefcake
SBR Posting Legend
11-26-09
14029
#29
God I cant stand Ostapenko.Shes a real
biattch..That shit she pulled a wimbledon still
Pisses me off..Between her faking and TSITIPAS bathroom breaks these young punks have no respect
Comment
beefcake
SBR Posting Legend
11-26-09
14029
#30
Originally posted by Doug tushyterror
Another one. -1429 prematch to +1400 live down 2-5 in the 3rd.
Bergs won 3 Challengers this year & this guy has never even played above Futures. Shady as fukk
Lol hugo delliens brother..JESUS
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Doug tushyterror
SBR MVP
07-03-12
4172
#31
Originally posted by beefcake
Lol hugo delliens brother..JESUS
Dudes so broke he's begging for funding. If I was sharp enough to make some money off him today I would’ve chipped in.
Comment
Demonata
BARRELED IN @ SBR!
07-12-11
25829
#32
I'm just glad I don't bet on Sabine Lisicki anymore. Every time I bet her she would lose.
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Doug tushyterror
SBR MVP
07-03-12
4172
#33
Originally posted by Demonata
I'm just glad I don't bet on Sabine Lisicki anymore. Every time I bet her she would lose.
She's been out with injuries since last year, who knows if she'll ever play again.
Comment
Demonata
BARRELED IN @ SBR!
07-12-11
25829
#34
Originally posted by Doug tushyterror
She's been out with injuries since last year, who knows if she'll ever play again.
I think I mostly bet her because she was hot. Was tired of betting on ugly tennis players like schiavone haha.
Comment
beefcake
SBR Posting Legend
11-26-09
14029
#35
Originally posted by Doug tushyterror
She's been out with injuries since last year, who knows if she'll ever play again.
Shes never been the same since losing that Wimbledon final to Bartoli.All these years later im positive its still in her head and is part of the reason why,even with injuries as to why she never was the same.