This is why you never throw a -10,000 in a parlay.

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  • Doug tushyterror
    SBR MVP
    • 07-03-12
    • 4172

    #1
    This is why you never throw a -10,000 in a parlay.
    I always thought this little midget rat bastard was a fixer but this is about as dirty as it gets playing for your country no less.




    His 2nd match ever:
  • Chi_archie
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 07-22-08
    • 63172

    #2
    what are the benefits of throwing it in? seems like that addition would add less than a sawbuck to most parlays

    if you want to throw it in a HUGH parlay do it. and then bet a lil sumthin on the ml dog just to get your money back

    then you can take NEVER out of your vocab
    Comment
    • KVB
      SBR Aristocracy
      • 05-29-14
      • 74817

      #3
      Fuk Doug.

      Fuk.

      Comment
      • Chi_archie
        SBR Aristocracy
        • 07-22-08
        • 63172

        #4
        dougles

        can I buy that radar gun off you?
        Comment
        • Doug tushyterror
          SBR MVP
          • 07-03-12
          • 4172

          #5
          Originally posted by Chi_archie
          what are the benefits of throwing it in? seems like that addition would add less than a sawbuck to most parlays

          if you want to throw it in a HUGH parlay do it. and then bet a lil sumthin on the ml dog just to get your money back

          then you can take NEVER out of your vocab
          Agreed but the take back +1616 on a 10K fav. is so shitty it's hard to justify even taking the underdog at that price. The match was even on clay in Diego's home country, Argentina.
          Comment
          • KVB
            SBR Aristocracy
            • 05-29-14
            • 74817

            #6
            Would be fun to have a radar gun at a bash where everyone can step up.

            I'd probably throw my shoulder out of socket.

            Better yet, let's get JJ Gold in a dunk tank and we can just pitch balls a that.
            Comment
            • KVB
              SBR Aristocracy
              • 05-29-14
              • 74817

              #7
              Originally posted by Doug tushyterror
              Agreed but the take back +1616 on a a 10K fav...
              Un fukkin real.

              Fukkin tennis.

              Comment
              • ThaTopMoron
                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                • 04-30-10
                • 27020

                #8
                #8 cincy left tackle is having a BAD BAD day... to put it very mildly

                -10,000 that he gets beat again late in this game and is the direct result of Indiana hanging on to a win
                Comment
                • SnakesPicks
                  SBR Wise Guy
                  • 10-05-13
                  • 685

                  #9
                  Yeah, adding that to a parlay probably boosted the payout by 50 cents. Totally not worth it.
                  Comment
                  • TommieGunshot
                    SBR MVP
                    • 03-27-12
                    • 1607

                    #10
                    If it has a greater than 99% chance of winning, I will always throw in a -10,000 line to every bet I make. And my profits will increase. The only reason to not include a -10,000 number is if the chance of it winning is 99% or less.
                    Comment
                    • KVB
                      SBR Aristocracy
                      • 05-29-14
                      • 74817

                      #11
                      Originally posted by TommieGunshot
                      If it has a greater than 99% chance of winning, I will always throw in a -10,000 line to every bet I make. And my profits will increase. The only reason to not include a -10,000 number is if the chance of it winning is 99% or less.
                      I know it sounds crazy to many, but this is the right thinking, even if we are talking about the ridiculous -10,000 price.

                      The thinking shouldn't change because of the price, even if we commit a shit ton to vig.
                      Comment
                      • Chi_archie
                        SBR Aristocracy
                        • 07-22-08
                        • 63172

                        #12
                        but who has good models to spit out expected value on wins and losses at those far far far end of the the 99th percentile range? once you get past 97.3% you are entering into unchartered and largely market untested areas. It becomes more about lotto like variance.

                        in any event, the potential profits are not worth it for me to go scrap and backtest all those numbers, while inputting the changing market scenarios
                        Comment
                        • Brock Landers
                          SBR Aristocracy
                          • 06-30-08
                          • 45359

                          #13
                          Davis cup??

                          That's pure shit
                          Comment
                          • KVB
                            SBR Aristocracy
                            • 05-29-14
                            • 74817

                            #14
                            Originally posted by Chi_archie
                            but who has good models to spit out expected value on wins and losses at those far far far end of the the 99th percentile range? once you get past 97.3% you are entering into unchartered and largely market untested areas. It becomes more about lotto like variance
                            The thinking should still be consistent no matter the price but yeah we are getting into prices that just aren't very practical for this type of stuff.

                            The mistake many make is to arbitrarily pick a price cut off, which will likely cut off opportunity. I know it works for a lot of bettors, for example, to say "never buy a mlb line over -150" or something, but in the end that means leaving +EV on the table.

                            Even up to -10000 the thinking should be the same, there isn't anything there to change the thinking, but there is definitely less to support it, like you are saying.
                            Comment
                            • vitterd
                              Restricted User
                              • 09-14-17
                              • 58460

                              #15
                              If I ever bet a -10,000 or even a -1,000. That’s the day I call it quits.
                              Comment
                              • SamsNCharge99
                                SBR Aristocracy
                                • 10-22-08
                                • 41242

                                #16
                                for Schwartzman to lose is bad. But on clay is even worse, his best surface.

                                Embarrassing loss for your country
                                Comment
                                • beefcake
                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                  • 11-26-09
                                  • 14029

                                  #17
                                  Wow Schwartzmen was 23% on second serve points won on his..Either this is tge ultimate of taking your opponent lighlty or hell
                                  Yeah your right doug.DEF SUPER FISHY!
                                  Comment
                                  • pavyracer
                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                    • 04-12-07
                                    • 82839

                                    #18
                                    Tsitsipas also lost as a big fav.

                                    Check Swartzy's betting accounts.
                                    Comment
                                    • SamsNCharge99
                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                      • 10-22-08
                                      • 41242

                                      #19
                                      did otters bet this too?
                                      Comment
                                      • KVB
                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                        • 05-29-14
                                        • 74817

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by SamsNCharge99
                                        did otters bet this too?
                                        Sammy Otters has turned over a new leaf.
                                        Comment
                                        • jjgold
                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                          • 07-20-05
                                          • 388179

                                          #21
                                          Shartzy just about done

                                          He had a little run for a while
                                          Comment
                                          • Doug tushyterror
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 07-03-12
                                            • 4172

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by beefcake
                                            Wow Schwartzmen was 23% on second serve points won on his..Either this is tge ultimate of taking your opponent lighlty or hell
                                            Yeah your right doug.DEF SUPER FISHY!
                                            Even this match is super fishy. Took Bergs to win the 2nd set against Hugo Dellien's brother who's never even played a Challenger match & it's a huge struggle.

                                            Comment
                                            • Chi_archie
                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                              • 07-22-08
                                              • 63172

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by KVB
                                              The thinking should still be consistent no matter the price
                                              agreed

                                              I wouldn't ever "throw in" a +750 +100 -150 or -10,000

                                              I consistently won't throw in bets without the #'s being right
                                              Comment
                                              • Doug tushyterror
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 07-03-12
                                                • 4172

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by Chi_archie
                                                agreed

                                                I wouldn't ever "throw in" a +750 +100 -150 or -10,000

                                                I consistently won't throw in bets without the #'s being right
                                                I don't know if you're serious about the radar gun Archie but I'm not the type who ever sells shit. If I need money I'll just try to hit a bet & cashout.
                                                Comment
                                                • KVB
                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                  • 05-29-14
                                                  • 74817

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by Chi_archie
                                                  agreed

                                                  I wouldn't ever "throw in" a +750 +100 -150 or -10,000

                                                  I consistently won't throw in bets without the #'s being right
                                                  There are mental factors too.

                                                  Some bettors add the -10000 and if it loses they go on tilt, and for good reason in my opinion, I mean, shit...even on clay...shit...lol.

                                                  It happens and those can be triggers for bettors likely to go on tilt or something similar.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Doug tushyterror
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 07-03-12
                                                    • 4172

                                                    #26
                                                    Another one. -1429 prematch to +1400 live down 2-5 in the 3rd.



                                                    Bergs won 3 Challengers this year & this guy has never even played above Futures. Shady as fukk
                                                    Comment
                                                    • jjgold
                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                      • 07-20-05
                                                      • 388179

                                                      #27
                                                      Doug who do you like tomorrow in the Clauson match?

                                                      She is a young sensation
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Doug tushyterror
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 07-03-12
                                                        • 4172

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by jjgold
                                                        Doug who do you like tomorrow in the Clauson match?

                                                        She is a young sensation
                                                        Gotta go with Clara Tauson, JJ. Only recent loss was to Barty & she even beat Raducanu. She'll make Ostapenko pay for all those unforced errors
                                                        Comment
                                                        • beefcake
                                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                                          • 11-26-09
                                                          • 14029

                                                          #29
                                                          God I cant stand Ostapenko.Shes a real
                                                          biattch..That shit she pulled a wimbledon still
                                                          Pisses me off..Between her faking and TSITIPAS bathroom breaks these young punks have no respect
                                                          Comment
                                                          • beefcake
                                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                                            • 11-26-09
                                                            • 14029

                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by Doug tushyterror
                                                            Another one. -1429 prematch to +1400 live down 2-5 in the 3rd.



                                                            Bergs won 3 Challengers this year & this guy has never even played above Futures. Shady as fukk
                                                            Lol hugo delliens brother..JESUS
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Doug tushyterror
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 07-03-12
                                                              • 4172

                                                              #31
                                                              Originally posted by beefcake
                                                              Lol hugo delliens brother..JESUS
                                                              Dudes so broke he's begging for funding. If I was sharp enough to make some money off him today I would’ve chipped in.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Demonata
                                                                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                • 07-12-11
                                                                • 25829

                                                                #32
                                                                I'm just glad I don't bet on Sabine Lisicki anymore. Every time I bet her she would lose.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Doug tushyterror
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 07-03-12
                                                                  • 4172

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by Demonata
                                                                  I'm just glad I don't bet on Sabine Lisicki anymore. Every time I bet her she would lose.
                                                                  She's been out with injuries since last year, who knows if she'll ever play again.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Demonata
                                                                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                    • 07-12-11
                                                                    • 25829

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Originally posted by Doug tushyterror
                                                                    She's been out with injuries since last year, who knows if she'll ever play again.
                                                                    I think I mostly bet her because she was hot. Was tired of betting on ugly tennis players like schiavone haha.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • beefcake
                                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                                      • 11-26-09
                                                                      • 14029

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Originally posted by Doug tushyterror
                                                                      She's been out with injuries since last year, who knows if she'll ever play again.
                                                                      Shes never been the same since losing that Wimbledon final to Bartoli.All these years later im positive its still in her head and is part of the reason why,even with injuries as to why she never was the same.
                                                                      Comment
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