Analyzing Consensus

goduke · 09-09-21, 04:52 PM

All those consensus tools are fake or set up to manipulate action. I would say 7-8 years ago they weren’t as manipulated but now they are. Vegas insider is a good one to see that they manipulate. They’ll often change the percentage numbers or block out teams in the top ten

Snowball · 09-09-21, 05:05 PM

everything is fake but the line

KVB · 09-09-21, 05:45 PM

Originally posted by Lineman

...Price (in this case the line) is everything for me. Most of you will agree with this, I think. It has everything baked into it...injuries, weather, wise money, public.....you name it!...

...Over/Under if it stayed 51.5 and below I would have favored the under...the move to 52.5....???...

If price is everything, and you "would have" favored the UNDER at 51.5, and now it's 52.5, but you question it, are you letting line moves sway your decision making, and if so, why? The meaning and ramifications of the line move is worth investigating, but there are multiple possiblities as to why it happened, so more info is needed to determine the markets goal with that move. These are the trees that make up the forest.

Are you creating your own forecast or prediction? (Nevemind that it's week one and there are obviously info gaps for that process, I mean in general, you can still make forecasts).

When it comes to analyzing the consensus, not sure what to say there except don't. I suppose you could track the results and try to hit a regression. But it's still not going to be helpful, those particular consensus numbers may not have much to offer outside of some potential value relative to itself.

As far as average bet being bigger, and it potentially being "wise money" understand that these numbers may come from a book or source that simply won't take action from anyone "wise" so it might not be wise to read too much into it.

Lineman · 09-09-21, 06:29 PM

Thanks for the inputs guys.

KVB you made some good points...To answer the line move on over under: I have a line that I compare it too and I expect the line to move or not to move in certain direction to validate my number.....But like you said multiple factors for the moves, obviously nothing is perfect, just trying to find an edge, without it we are lost!

Since public is usually wrong in sports betting I think those consensus should help us a little but you are saying they are manipulated and depends where the source is coming from....
The one that I showed, is that coming from SBR's book I wonder? Than again we have a lot of sharpies around, wouldn't consider that much of a public either... ; )

jjgold · 09-09-21, 06:37 PM

The guy said it best everything is fake but the line all that other stuff means nothing

gauchojake · 09-09-21, 06:55 PM

If I feel like my opinion on a game is being affected by the line or line movement, I check multiple spots to gauge public sentiment. Frankly it's just lazy handicapping to make plays on where the public money is going but I am most certainly a lazy man. Maybe the laziest in Los Angeles County which would place me high in the runnin' for laziest worldwide.

hubie69 · 09-09-21, 09:06 PM

Originally posted by gauchojake

If I feel like my opinion on a game is being affected by the line or line movement, I check multiple spots to gauge public sentiment. Frankly it's just lazy handicapping to make plays on where the public money is going but I am most certainly a lazy man. Maybe the laziest in Los Angeles County which would place me high in the runnin' for laziest worldwide.

And yet, the dude abides.

hubie69 · 09-09-21, 09:07 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

The guy said it best everything is fake but the line all that other stuff means nothing

So where specifically does this info come from for SBR?

svsooner · 09-09-21, 09:37 PM

Originally posted by hubie69

And yet, the dude abides.

Love that movie! Your phone's ringing dude.

texhooper · 09-09-21, 11:23 PM

You see what happens Larry?!

Lineman · 09-13-21, 04:39 PM

I am assuming this is coming from SBR Book.....?

Public went 9 - 5

Public > Avg Bet Size : 4 - 0 and the tie lost....

11 - 4

6 - 6 - 1

Lineman · 09-13-21, 05:18 PM

Public on Vegas, everywere.

If I was playing baccarat

with Circa card I would play Ravens, with Westgate you could make a case with LV and BAL but I would favor LV but we are not playing that so.....

Obviously with Westgate and Circa (their lines are much better compare??) people are also favoring the lines so they jumped on LV.....

Road teams went 10 - 4 - 1

What to do what to do????

LV ?? Under.....?

Lineman · 09-20-21, 03:31 PM

> 500 westgate gave you 5......

ChuckyTheGoat · 09-20-21, 03:39 PM

Originally posted by goduke

All those consensus tools are fake or set up to manipulate action. I would say 7-8 years ago they weren’t as manipulated but now they are. Vegas insider is a good one to see that they manipulate. They’ll often change the percentage numbers or block out teams in the top ten

I tend to weigh in with Duke. This information can't be all that useful.

I have heard that info from INSIDE the big shops can be useful. Things like Ticket/$$ counts, but more specifically:
*Sharp plays. Who are they betting?
*Square plays. If there is such a thing. Who are the Fades?

My thing on Squares is (just like poker): How could a true square not run of money (and do so pretty soon)?
...Do u know a lot of oil tycoons with deep-pockets frittering their $$ away in casinos?
...Granted, I know SOME whales do exist. But there can't be too many.

The biggest angle on sports-betting (which can't be denied) is BTCL value:
*If you accumulate a portfolio that is a %value vs the closing line...that becomes very hard to beat.

KVB · 09-20-21, 04:12 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

I tend to weigh in with Duke. This information can't be all that useful.

I have heard that info from INSIDE the big shops can be useful. Things like Ticket/$$ counts, but more specifically:
*Sharp plays. Who are they betting?
*Square plays. If there is such a thing. Who are the Fades?

My thing on Squares is (just like poker): How could a true square not run of money (and do so pretty soon)?
...Do u know a lot of oil tycoons with deep-pockets frittering their $$ away in casinos?
...Granted, I know SOME whales do exist. But there can't be too many.

The biggest angle on sports-betting (which can't be denied) is BTCL value:
*If you accumulate a portfolio that is a %value vs the closing line...that becomes very hard to beat.

Man if PM's were private I'd send you a doozy.

You are both right and wrong. The middle part about squares and whales, toss it, it makes no sense. There will alway be a new crop of bettors and in the US that has never been more true. What's a whale? Wealthy pro athletes make it cool to bet big, and do it as "influencers". The sports markets have plenty of huge money bettors and bets are even tossed around and booked on the floor of the NYSE...for sick amounts. I could add more.

As far as beating the closer, can't say your wrong when I've posted perhaps thousands of plays since about 2018 at SBR and tracked the closing line for each one, and beat the closer.

That said, there are many ways to handicap and perhaps we should do a meta analysis of the CLV of the Contrarian Funds, which are not necessarily "designed" to beat the closing line.

So much more Chucky, I want to share, I really do.

jjgold · 09-20-21, 04:22 PM

draftkings only book that releases real data
They own VSIN
Still teaching clowns here

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johnnyvegas13 · 09-20-21, 04:33 PM

I just know who the public is on

I don’t need to read about it

Lineman · 10-03-21, 11:10 AM

they got it right on Thursday....let's see if the streak continues.....

Early games.

Wise money a little on Washington and Detroit might do well....so much wise money on Indy????

NYJ, Min may do well....

So much love for Car and NYG ???

Phi and Hou could be wrong....

Lineman · 10-03-21, 02:08 PM

I have a feeling public got it wrong this time around....
I am following the wise money especially Sea....

carolinakid · 10-03-21, 02:11 PM

the nfl for the most part is all about how teams look the week before

jjgold · 10-03-21, 02:25 PM

It does not mean much if it did nobody would work

Trends win and lose

ChuckyTheGoat · 10-03-21, 02:28 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

It does not mean much if it did nobody would work

Trends win and lose

Yet another point-less post.

Everyone here is winning, pal. Everyone but you.

Lineman · 10-04-21, 05:42 PM

Maybe we shouldn't discount this just yet!

Lineman · 10-04-21, 06:19 PM

This one has the same look as IND/MIA game.....???

ChuckyTheGoat · 10-04-21, 06:30 PM

Line, you're doin good work.

Lineman · 10-04-21, 06:51 PM

LV Supercontest Lines with closing lines....... 7W / 2L.....Points to LV also tonight.....

Lineman · 10-04-21, 06:56 PM

Never had 2 light red in a row....baccarat players backing LV.....

The best indicator is JJ's questioning the line being only -3....If something looks too good it usually is......

All joke aside, a lot pointing to LV tonight, still for some reason confidence level low on this game...Thank God no one twisting my arm to bet it!!!

pavyracer · 10-04-21, 07:01 PM

Las Vegas played 1/2 game more than Chargers already. They should be banged up and tired.

Lineman · 10-07-21, 06:19 PM

Thanks Chucky....good job pavy!

Don't know about the public on this one.... Going with classic sucker bet; fav and over....

Lineman · 10-08-21, 10:52 AM

This one is from VSIN....thanks for JJ pointing this site out.....

VSIN 1 - SBR 0

ChuckyTheGoat · 10-08-21, 12:27 PM

Lineman, not sure about what direction you're going here?

Are u BACKING the public? Or FADING the public? I can't keep it all straight.

Lineman · 10-08-21, 05:31 PM

Chucky I know a little confusing trying to find a better way to do it....I'll figure it out hopefully....VISN just got into the picture (Thanks to JJ)...as you can see public was on Rams at VISN....so I guess went with public on this one since I mentioned yesterday going with Rams, therefor I gave the points to VISN...

From my observation I think it's close to 50/50 between public and against at SBR.....therefor some fades, some backing.....I am pointing out which side I am leaning at the end of the post...

I appreciate the inputs.....Just having fun with it....let's see if goes anywhere....

Getch13 · 10-08-21, 08:17 PM

Check out the daily betting splits with % bets (tickets) and % handle (money). GO HERE. We now have a direct feed from DraftKings, the source of the data, so we will update it at least twice a day, starting at noon ET on weekdays

Lineman · 10-10-21, 11:30 AM

Originally posted by Getch13

Check out the daily betting splits with % bets (tickets) and % handle (money). GO HERE. We now have a direct feed from DraftKings, the source of the data, so we will update it at least twice a day, starting at noon ET on weekdays

Thanks JJ beat you to it..... ; )