Browns to win SB odds undervalued?

[pimike]

Clev going to lose to the Steelers who are playing without any starters.

Plenty of starters in.

[ThaTopMoron]

browns have been outscored by opponents

[Snowball]

I bought a Browns toque hat when I was there on New Years Day 1994.

Patriots lost to Belicheck

The Mistake By The Lake.

Dawg Pound chased me because I unzipped by leather jacket to reveal Patriots shirt.

[Mac4Lyfe]

Brown's coach Stefanie really tried hard to lose this game today. Some of the worst playcalling I've seen in quite some time. Took Chubb out of the game for the 2nd week in a row. How do I apply for a HC job?

[KVB]

For a second there I thought I was going to be the only guy to come out ahead in this thread.

Instead I'm the only guy to lose the Pitt ml.

[jjgold]

They have no shot do not waste your money

[Chi_archie]

what will odds be for next weeks game?

Steelers -4.5?

[champlain]

At 50-1, it’s not even good value. At Pittsburg, they will be about +160. At KC, probably +300 or worse. At buffalo or Ravens, +200. And, they will be underdogs in the super bowl. I strongly urge you to rethink this. Unless the colts wipe out the the bills and the chiefs, you won’t be able to hedge without losing money.

[clockwise1965]

Browns have no shot at any odds

[KVB]

At 50-1, it’s not even good value. At Pittsburg, they will be about +160. At KC, probably +300 or worse. At buffalo or Ravens, +200. And, they will be underdogs in the super bowl. I strongly urge you to rethink this. Unless the colts wipe out the the bills and the chiefs, you won’t be able to hedge without losing money.

Even at 50-1 there's plenty of room to sell back, even with your numbers.

Plenty.

[champlain]

Even at 50-1 there's plenty of room to sell back, even with your numbers.

Plenty.

Let’s say he bets $100 to win $5000(50/1 odds) The Steelers are probably -200. He need to bet 200 on the steelers to cover his initial investment.

Let’s say the browns win. The chiefs will be roughly -400 against the browns. He needs to bet $1,200 on the chiefs to cover his initial investment Of $100.00 and the $200 he hedged with the Steelers.

By some miracle they beat the chiefs, they face the ravens or the bills, I’ll be super generous and the bills are just -175 against the browns, He needs to hedge $2,625.00 to win $1,500 to cover his initial investment and the losses he sustained hedging.

He’s already spent $4,125 on hedging just to get to the super bowl. I’ll be super generous again and make the packers only -125 favorites against the browns. He needs to hedge $5,187.50 to win $4,125.00. If the packers win, he doesn’t lose money. If the browns win, He loses about 4K.

[Chi_archie]

who is trying to hedge every game with a 100 dollar fun bet?

[champlain]

who is trying to hedge every game with a 100 dollar fun bet?

Dude, I don’t know how much money he bet. I just used $100.00 as an example to show why 50/1 is bad value.

[KVB]

I was thinking he wasn't selling back the first game...

Browns Superbowl at 50/1, if they win a playoff game this gets easily hedgeable.
maybe even hedge every step...

I guess he did have a maybe though...lol.

It does change your numbers significantly though. It becomes $400 to win the original $100, then about $877 to win the $500. Now it's only $1377 just to get to the Super Bowl. Then a further $1721 you wanted to sell back there. At any time you could be willing to take a side for a small postion was well.

With the 80-1 I showed in this thread, I intend to sell the points back for profit each time. My Pitt bet was good because not only was it underdog, but it was possible to win with Pitt and still advance into the playoffs.

If they face KC, I'll probably be willing to incure risk and bet KC much bigger. But of course it all depends on the numbers and who faces who.

It's a rather fluid situation, but there's room to work with even as low as 50-1 if the plan is to start selling back "if they win a playoff game" like snow said.

He might have to reconsider his "maybe even hedge every step" though, it just depends on what numbers he has and what numbers he gets.

[clockwise1965]

Throwing money away

[veriableodds]

SNOW we need a sugar free version

[StackinGreen]

They lose the 1st game lol, this is nutz

AFC is a monster, and they are pedestrian, let's be real here

[Snowball]

Nobody paying attn, this bet is already completely paid for with the Browns ML yesterday,
as mentioned in Post #7.
Now I don't even have to hedge it in the playoffs.
And I have them at 80/1 in sbr, the 50/1 was what they were elsewhere.
They won't be 50/1 anymore.

[RudyRuetigger]

Ok dont let me down snowy


(these are betpoints)

SUPER BOWL LV (2021) [17] CLEVELAND BROWNS +8000

664.00 / 53120.00

Here's what I did...

Ticket#:4626288 Feb 07 01:00 PM	Jan 03 12:46 PM	TNT	SUPER BOWL LV (2021) [17] CLEVELAND BROWNS +8000	100.00 / 8000.00
Ticket#:4626290 Jan 03 01:00 PM	Jan 03 12:46 PM	NFL	STRAIGHT BET [109] PITTSBURGH +387	51.68 / 200.00

If Cleveland loses and get's bounced from the playoffs I win 100 betpoints.

If they win I'm committed to 151.68 betpoints and I'll just keep laying against them, I figure 8000 is enough to work with.

I figure...lol.

I threw 500 on Browns +8000 to win SB as well. I'm not hedging this game. If they can't beat Pitt today. I deserve to lose.

Nope in for 200 to win 16,000

can a mod let us know if these bets are good?

[Snowball]

all my futures moving forward ... Bills, Saints, BROWNS.

[johnnyvegas13]

Hard to hedgetho

chiefs -11

[Snowball]

Hard to hedgetho

chiefs -11

I am already hedged as mentioned in this thread. The question now is how best
to navigate profit. I'll think about it later in the week.

[Snowball]

Even though this bet is already paid for, I slightly went for some profit on it by taking KC ML -490
to win +160 on the Brown SB wager. It cost less than 10% of the future odds payoff.

Also have TB +10 in teasers with others already won, a small ATS Browns/Chiefs Under 58 (-130, bought 1, 51+7=58)
also carring before-playoffs Bills and Saints futures and a Packers NFC future from before yesterday that is just an arb.

Do I think the Browns can win? Of course, that's why I only spent 9.8% of the payout.
But I did it because they probably won't. For me, that reason is Andy Reid.

[Mac4Lyfe]

Even though this bet is already paid for, I slightly went for some profit on it by taking KC ML -490 to win +160 on the Brown SB wager. It cost less than 10% of the future odds payoff. Also have TB +10 in teasers with others already won, a small ATS Browns/Chiefs Under 58 (-130, bought 1, 51+7=58)also carring before-playoffs Bills and Saints futures and a Packers NFC future from before yesterday that is just an arb.Do I think the Browns can win? Of course, that's why I only spent 9.8% of the payout.But I did it because they probably won't. For me, that reason is Andy Reid.

I didn't hedge either Pitt game. I just hedged KC ML for 3000 betpoints. I was going to bet more on KC to make more if KC wins but I believe in my Browns. I won't even hedge if they beat KC. Superbowl or bust.

Ticket#:4640731 Jan 17 03:05 PM

Jan 17 02:26 PM

NFL

STRAIGHT BET [306] KANSAS CITY -440

3000.00 / 681.82

[RudyRuetigger]

i didnt even hedge this game


probably a loss for us and a backdoor cover though



if i have the chance, i will at half with real cash