Hedge, Middle or Let it Ride?

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  • Mr. Peepers
    SBR MVP
    • 09-22-09
    • 1425

    #1
    Hedge, Middle or Let it Ride?
    I was messing around on Nitrogen Mobile while I was holding my 2 year old son looking at the payout on potential parlays and I accidentally submitted a parlay with my entire bankroll of roughly $4700 to win $3200. First leg of the parlay Rams ML is most likely cashing with 5 minutes left and the other leg is Seahawks ML. A win or loss isn’t likely going to change my life for better or worse. Do I put $1500 on the Jets ML to win $6500 or try to middle with the Jets spread? I don’t think it’s impossible for the Jets to win this weekend. They have actually been playing pretty well the last few weeks and Russ has been struggling and I don’t think the Hawks are as good as their record indicates. I am looking to maximize my potential winnings while avoiding going busto from my mishap. Any suggestions to what I should do would be greatly appreciated. Thank you!
  • pilebuck13
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 05-15-15
    • 17918

    #2
    Let it ride jets are not beating the seahawks man
    Comment
    • Orbison
      SBR MVP
      • 09-07-20
      • 4691

      #3
      i'd either let it 100% ride or play the Jets +14 for half your parlay win amount ($1600)
      Comment
      • BuckyOne
        SBR MVP
        • 01-02-15
        • 2728

        #4
        Just play enough Jets money line to get your 4700 back if the Jets pull off the miracle. Did you see the horseshvt NFL football played last weekend? Anything can happen because it certainly did last weekend.
        Comment
        • Mr. Peepers
          SBR MVP
          • 09-22-09
          • 1425

          #5
          All good points and suggestions above. I have a few days to kick it around. I will let you know what I decide to do!
          Comment
          • eidolon
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 01-02-08
            • 9531

            #6
            They aren't offering it at +500 or more?
            Comment
            • gauchojake
              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
              • 09-17-10
              • 34116

              #7
              Comment
              • miaplus3
                SBR High Roller
                • 03-16-10
                • 230

                #8
                I would watch the 1st Quarter, regroup, reevaluate, then fire!
                Comment
                • hotcross
                  SBR Hall of Famer
                  • 08-04-17
                  • 7934

                  #9
                  Let's ask Diggity
                  Comment
                  • johnnyvegas13
                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                    • 05-21-15
                    • 27897

                    #10
                    Let it ride

                    winless teams this late in the season never win on the road
                    Comment
                    • Mr. Peepers
                      SBR MVP
                      • 09-22-09
                      • 1425

                      #11
                      I am getting flashbacks of the Bills winning last year in Minny as 16pt dogs...Granted that was a little different scenario with Josh Allen on the up and up and Kirk Cousins/ Minny being over valued but it does happen
                      Comment
                      • Art Vandelay
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 09-11-06
                        • 6690

                        #12
                        Throw a little on the Jets +14, then sit back and get ready to count your $3200. A Jets play winner would be a bonus!
                        Comment
                        • Otters27
                          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                          • 07-14-07
                          • 30760

                          #13
                          Middle the spread for a guarantee profit or let it ride
                          Comment
                          • RudyRuetigger
                            SBR Aristocracy
                            • 08-24-10
                            • 65084

                            #14
                            how do you accidentally bet your entire balance???
                            Comment
                            • Hman
                              SBR Posting Legend
                              • 11-04-17
                              • 21429

                              #15
                              The age-old question.

                              Everyone's situation is different.

                              You have to ask yourself these questions:

                              *How important is the money to you when it comes to being won or lost

                              *How much will you kick yourself if you don't hedge & lose, or even hedge and the greed makes you have regrets that you did
                              Comment
                              • TheLock
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 04-06-08
                                • 14427

                                #16
                                Originally posted by BuckyOne
                                Just play enough Jets money line to get your 4700 back if the Jets pull off the miracle. Did you see the horseshvt NFL football played last weekend? Anything can happen because it certainly did last weekend.
                                Sharp.

                                Never take advice from someone that tells you one pro sports team can’t beat another pro sports team.
                                Comment
                                • Mr. Peepers
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 09-22-09
                                  • 1425

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by RudyRuetigger
                                  how do you accidentally bet your entire balance???
                                  Crazy, I know. First time I have ever done this in 15 years of betting....Dude, I am not sure if you have a nitrogen account but once you put in a wager amount you are one click away from putting the bet in. Every other site I have ever used has a confirm bet page before the bet can be accepted.
                                  Comment
                                  • RudyRuetigger
                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                    • 08-24-10
                                    • 65084

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by Mr. Peepers
                                    Crazy, I know. First time I have ever done this in 15 years of betting....Dude, I am not sure if you have a nitrogen account but once you put in a wager amount you are one click away from putting the bet in. Every other site I have ever used has a confirm bet page before the bet can be accepted.
                                    yea but its not like you are dealing with round numbers on nitrogen and clicked an extra 0, its all kinda numbers due to being in bitcoin


                                    if you really didnt mean to place the bet in the first place, id hedge


                                    if you did mean to and are now scared, i wouldnt since the money isnt that big of a deal to you...you can either win or teach your past self a lesson about tilting so maybe it wont happen again


                                    up to you on which one is true

                                    Comment
                                    • Crusherrr
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 06-27-16
                                      • 3655

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by RudyRuetigger
                                      how do you accidentally bet your entire balance???
                                      On Nitrogen it's very easy. In the blackjack I accidentally bet 1000 mbtc which at the time was like $6000. Its not like other sites where you are betting $100. It's very easy to forget and somehow bet 100mbtc which would be $1,800 ish not $100 obviously
                                      Comment
                                      • SamsNCharge99
                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                        • 10-22-08
                                        • 41242

                                        #20
                                        let it ride
                                        Comment
                                        • pologq
                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                          • 10-07-12
                                          • 19899

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by BuckyOne
                                          Just play enough Jets money line to get your 4700 back if the Jets pull off the miracle. Did you see the horseshvt NFL football played last weekend? Anything can happen because it certainly did last weekend.
                                          maybe this but i really feel the jets are not winning. no mims, on the road, jamal adams revenge factor and knows their plays. adams wants this game probably more than any other game this year excluding a NFC championship and Super Bowl.
                                          Comment
                                          • Ian
                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                            • 11-09-09
                                            • 6076

                                            #22
                                            Let it ride.

                                            There's no point in making a -EV bet just because you already made a different -EV bet.
                                            Comment
                                            • RudyRuetigger
                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                              • 08-24-10
                                              • 65084

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by Crusherrr
                                              On Nitrogen it's very easy. In the blackjack I accidentally bet 1000 mbtc which at the time was like $6000. Its not like other sites where you are betting $100. It's very easy to forget and somehow bet 100mbtc which would be $1,800 ish not $100 obviously
                                              i play on nitrogen and never have that problem
                                              Comment
                                              • Hushie
                                                SBR Wise Guy
                                                • 11-02-19
                                                • 747

                                                #24
                                                Let that shit ride.
                                                Comment
                                                • jjgold
                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                  • 07-20-05
                                                  • 388179

                                                  #25
                                                  Only hedge it’s large stakes are involved
                                                  Comment
                                                  • ace7550
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 05-08-15
                                                    • 3729

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by BuckyOne
                                                    Just play enough Jets money line to get your 4700 back if the Jets pull off the miracle. Did you see the horseshvt NFL football played last weekend? Anything can happen because it certainly did last weekend.
                                                    This. Make it so you can only win.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Ghenghis Kahn
                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                      • 01-02-12
                                                      • 19734

                                                      #27
                                                      I always see these hedging questions. I've even asked myself before but it all comes down to if it is a large amount for you, then you hedge. If it's not a big deal, let it ride.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Stallion
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 03-21-10
                                                        • 3617

                                                        #28
                                                        Just let it ride. Seattle isn't taking the Jets lightly like they did the Giants last week.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • texhooper
                                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                                          • 01-05-09
                                                          • 10001

                                                          #29
                                                          Because this was supposedly an accident, id say the answer is pretty easy. Hedge out to win $4700 on Jets point spread and hope for a nice middle. Seattle hasn’t taken anyone to the woodshed this year and the Jets seem to have a little life here lately so you could easily win a couple of really big bets

                                                          But normally, like if it wasn’t an accident, I’d say let it ride, unless it’s like an insane life changing amount. Did you make the bet to win the bet or did you make the bet to oil up your vagine just to have your boyfriend fukk you in the asshole instead? I didn’t think so. But since this was an accident, let’s try to finesse the situation a little bit, because no matter what you say, you would hang yourself if you lost $4700 in this fashion
                                                          Comment
                                                          • RudyRuetigger
                                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                                            • 08-24-10
                                                            • 65084

                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by Crusherrr
                                                            On Nitrogen it's very easy. In the blackjack I accidentally bet 1000 mbtc which at the time was like $6000. Its not like other sites where you are betting $100. It's very easy to forget and somehow bet 100mbtc which would be $1,800 ish not $100 obviously
                                                            Originally posted by RudyRuetigger
                                                            i play on nitrogen and never have that problem
                                                            im not hating


                                                            ive misclicked a bet


                                                            but on bitcoin books the fact you have to type in so many bs numbers, that should make you realize something weird is going on
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Mr. Peepers
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 09-22-09
                                                              • 1425

                                                              #31
                                                              Originally posted by RudyRuetigger
                                                              yea but its not like you are dealing with round numbers on nitrogen and clicked an extra 0, its all kinda numbers due to being in bitcoin


                                                              if you really didnt mean to place the bet in the first place, id hedge


                                                              if you did mean to and are now scared, i wouldnt since the money isnt that big of a deal to you...you can either win or teach your past self a lesson about tilting so maybe it wont happen again


                                                              up to you on which one is true

                                                              Math is not a personal strength of mine especially when it comes to calculating parlays. I will often but a bet amount in the box to see the payout to see if the risk is worth the reward. At that point on Nitrogen you are only 1 click away from a placed wager. It wasn’t a bad bet in my mind just a 100% of my roll
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Mr. Peepers
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 09-22-09
                                                                • 1425

                                                                #32
                                                                Originally posted by Crusherrr
                                                                On Nitrogen it's very easy. In the blackjack I accidentally bet 1000 mbtc which at the time was like $6000. Its not like other sites where you are betting $100. It's very easy to forget and somehow bet 100mbtc which would be $1,800 ish not $100 obviously
                                                                Did you win the hand???
                                                                Comment
                                                                • RudyRuetigger
                                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                                  • 08-24-10
                                                                  • 65084

                                                                  #33
                                                                  i could see if you said i was trying for 10% or 1% of the bet


                                                                  but you clicked every fukkin number for an all in


                                                                  so my point remains if you meant to do it or not


                                                                  and that is what you should do


                                                                  my post, number 18

                                                                  Hedge, Middle or Let it Ride? (sportsbookreview.com)
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • texhooper
                                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                                    • 01-05-09
                                                                    • 10001

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Originally posted by Mr. Peepers
                                                                    Math is not a personal strength of mine especially when it comes to calculating parlays. I will often but a bet amount in the box to see the payout to see if the risk is worth the reward. At that point on Nitrogen you are only 1 click away from a placed wager. It wasn’t a bad bet in my mind just a 100% of my roll
                                                                    There are parlay calculators out there that will give you a pretty good idea. I googled it the other day and used the one the VSin site, and it matched Heritage when I put the parlay in for real. There used to be one on here somewhere, I think, maybe it’s still around. Something to consider if you want to avoid this in the future
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • biggie12
                                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                                      • 12-30-05
                                                                      • 13792

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Let it ride.... cashout and use the money for your kid. He deserves it after all it was his selections.
                                                                      Comment
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