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Stay classy Mobile.
Stay classy Mobile.
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Sorry my man. I know this is a difficult play.Originally posted by stevenashComment -
Nasher Gave a thought out analysis with research much respect mookie has made a huge difference in this game the only real thing I never agreed w Nash on was rays having better defense. I honestly wanted to pound rays after dodgers were down to Braves but after 3 straight they turned around a bit. 7 game series plenty of series only game one guys but I feel experience means a lot as well how many rays played in World Series ? 1? 2? Idk kinda a weak year anyway I’ll be super annoyed since after 88 dodgers if they win can’t win it at home park lame I was at 18 inning game where muncy hit a walk off I have never enjoyed a sporting event more then a World Series gameComment -
only +177? books are cheap as hell. youre picking the correct team and the correct games and can't even get 2/1Comment -
Anyone seen the navy guyComment -
I think you are wrong that the Rays have better pitching, they just have the sexier names and the narrative has been constructed to make you believe that
forget Kershaw's playoff troubles, this is his time to shine
him & Buehler at the top of the rotation is as good as it gets
Urias, May, Gonsolin, Graterol, Treinen, Kenley waiting in the wings is FILTHY
this is the Dodgers yearComment -
Yep!! And rays came thru with there average of 6 hits. So Much for that bad ass bullpen of TBOriginally posted by sosawestbrookComment -
Easy to re analyze after a game 1 stomping, guy gives good info and thought and is a baseball encyclopedia people on here annoying. Although I said I disagree on rays having better defense I liked their pitching more Nash is a good dude chill out trolls Who said nothing before game 1Comment -
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Thanks for the backup, it’s all good though.
i’ve been writing up baseball here for ten years, I’ve seen ‘em come, and I’ve seen ‘em go.
Almost always the ones that contribute nothing are the ones that are first to pile on.
It’s all good though, I’ll still be writing baseball here long after they’re gone.Comment -
Rooting for you brother. Snell vs TBA or whoever is a must winOriginally posted by stevenashComment -
World Series becomes a best of five game set now tied at one and one.
LA loses the *home field* advantage as Tampa Bay is the *home team* for the next three games.
Those ninth inning at bats could be the difference.
Now before the few of my haters jump ugly on me, yes I am aware there is no official *home* ball park as these games are played in Arlington, thus the * before *home*Comment -
I hit Tampa tonight because of your insight..Originally posted by stevenash
Will play them again Friday with a little on the under..Comment -
Good luck Nasher.
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Ok your odds now just got betterComment -
Little better.Originally posted by jjgold
Ten cents better.
I'm not a hedge type of guy, even if I were there's no profit to be made if I do hedge at this point.
I need a profit of at least .30 or better to even consider hedging.
I still like Tampa Bay to win this series going into game 3 as much as I did going into game 1,
Bailing at this point is not an option for me, and even if I didn't like my series bet right now (and I still really like my series bet) it would cost me about 10 cents on the dollar (depending on which book has the best price)
Like Gold just said, the Rays odds just got better.
TB is now between + 165 or +170 right now, off of the +177 I got at the beginning (some shops had +180)
I'm not saying LA has no chance, they were about a -190 or 2:1 favorite going in.
The books think LA as a big favorite.
I am saying LA is way over priced.
Game 3 line IMO is over priced if you like LA.
-158/+148 is a bargain if you like TB
Morton has been terrific so far in the post season, you all know the numbers, 3 and 0, 0.57 ERA, 17 k's yadda yadda yadda.
Taking nothing away from LA or Beuhler, very good team, very good pitcher, not disrespecting them but in a TB/LA match up, with these two starters starting, with TB the home team, what's the best value?
LA laying 8:5
or
TB getting 3:2
If you think the game is an even pick 'em (and I sincerely do) then you really, really like getting 3:2 on what you perceive to be a 1:1 game
Laying 8:5 on a what you think is a pick well I'm not going to say is insane but I will say where's the value.
(First one to say "you pay no vig if you win" gets five to the eye) just kidding.
7.5 total is razor sharp, it should be IMO 7.5 runs.
On paper, however games are played on turf not paper, this game goes under 7.5
I can't (and won't) bet the total in game 3.
Couple of reasons, 10 runs a game scored seems to be the norm now, and the balls are flying.
Looks like the wound up baseballs have returned.
No play on the total even though the analytics all point to an under.
I bet TB small on the overnights at got +150
I may add on some tomorrow if the price is still hovering around +150 but I really think that ship is going to sail and leave port real soon.
+150 if you like TB in game 3 has major value.
I'll write this game up tomorrow.
Peace allComment -
Enjoying your analysis, subbed!Originally posted by stevenashComment -
Series might go 7Comment -
Originally posted by stevenash
I was right about the +150 ship sailing, I can only get +135 now.
Right now game 3 is +135/-145
If you like LA -145 is not that steep, if you think you can get -140 than wait a couple of hours but +135/-145 is where I expect this to settle.
I'm not adding on the small .5 * play I made Wednesday night, so I have TB for 1/2 unit tonight at +150.
Write up to follow later this afternoon.
I don't know if TB is going to platoon or not, I have to wait for the line ups to be posted.Comment -
Thank you. I enjoy writing them up and will do so as long as ya'll keep enjoying them.Originally posted by WargasmComment -
Buehler is a absolutel stud been saying this for years kids the.ace for sure puts up and does not crack under pressure Morton RockedComment -
Rays r gonna have to beat kershaw gm 7 if it even gets thereComment -
Tip of the cap so far to Buehler.
It's been the Turner and Buehler show tonight so far,
Morton was indeed off his game.
Buehler did give up a couple of hard hit balls in the fifth as Tampa cut the lead to 5-1
With Buehler having thrown over 70 pitches through five innings he will not probably see the seventh inning.
Tampa needs to keep LA in check and get to LA's bullpen.
4 innings left.
But it looks like LA's game.Comment -
What do u think going forward after this
I think LA in 6Comment -
Rays still fine for the series.Originally posted by stevenash
They win game 4 . Then it's good old Clayton time to do what he does. Game 6 dodgers win.
Buehler will be a lock on game 7 right?Comment -
I'm still sticking with Rays in six or seven.Originally posted by johnnyvegas13
If it's LA in seven so be it.
Obviously game 4 tomorrow is critical, but it's been the LA show tonight.
Let's see what happens Saturday, it'll be Urias v. a variety of mix and match pitchers for the Rays.Comment -
Don’t think rays r fine for series but agree gm 4Originally posted by lakerboy
nasher ???Comment -
I started playing baseball when I was six years old.
I've played it, umpired it, managed some Little League, pretty much all.
Now I write about sports and baseball analytics here, in my blog, and other places.
I eat, sleep, and shit baseball.
Point being I've seen everything imaginable in a seven game set.
LA if they hang on will go up 2 games to 1 in a seven game series.
Far from over here fellas.Comment -
Morton was the rays ace he got rocked buehler was lights out kershaw against this lime up pitched a gem idk what more to say besides the pitching is on the dodgers side in my opinion along w the experience I see LA winning in 6 idk I initially felt rays but after seeing the pitching match ups the rays are dead meat in my opinion easy to say now but it’s just simple mathComment -
agree w thisOriginally posted by pilebuck13
not sure how u can still think rays win but stranger things have happened in baresComment -
Still alive nasher
that gm 4 might break back this seriesComment -
Right on target hereComment -
So far.Originally posted by jjgold
Reread post #62, the part where I mention I've seen everything imaginable in baseball.
I can add now to that imaginable list the part where an end of the bench type pinch hitter (Phillips) a KC Royal castoff delivers a game tying single with two outs and two strikes on him in the bottom of the ninth with two runners on base in Game 4 of the World Series.
As the cheesy voice over guy would say in those commercials.
"Wait, that's not all"
While delivering that game tying single the center fielder decided it might be a good idea to scoop the ball with his glove and push the ball over to his right fielder, realizing his right fielder wasn't ready for aforementioned glove scoop the center fielder retrieves the ball, throws it to his cutoff man (the first baseman) who then fires in to his catcher in an attempt to tag out the game winning run trying to score behind the runner that just tied the score.
What the catcher wasn't counting on was the game winning runner stumbling 20 feet before reaching home plate.
The catcher then dropped the ball in an attempted swipe tag on an imaginary base runner because, well like I said he stumbled allowing him to dive home with the game winning run.
Did I get that all right?
Oh wait, I forgot the part where the Rays did all this off of the Dodgers ace closer and one of the games elite.
Point being, don't jump into a series thread in the middle of game 3 discussion thread and declare that the Dodgers are the World Champions and the Rays are dead and buried yadda, yadda, yadda, especially when there are at least two more games to be played, and like I said in post 62, this is baseball where anything can and could happen and usually does.
Doing so usually winds up making one look foolish.
Now which Kershaw shows up?
The Kershaw that pitched a beauty his last time out, or the Kershaw that shits the bed in a playoff/World Series game which he has demonstrated he can do it the past?
Or, the Kershaw that pitches pretty good only to be brutally mishandled by their manager (Roberts) who decides to leave Kershaw in two batters to long or yanks him out of the game two batters to soon.
We'll know the answer to this and so much more in tonight's episode.Comment -
Tampa tonight Steve?Comment -
I think doger still win but so does everyoneComment -
I’m fairly certain that the only World Series game Kershaw ever “shit the bed” was in 2017 against the Astros when *checks notes* the Astros knew what pitch was comingComment
